Weekly Market Technical Analysis

Market indices staged a robust, broad-based recovery from mid-November lows, particularly in small and mid-caps, following a significant VIX spike that saw implied volatility sharply decline and is likely to remain lower. Precious and industrial commodities also show strong bullish reversals, with their upward trajectory probable to continue. Conversely, the GLD/SLV ratio’s strong downtrend is highly likely to persist, favoring silver. While overall S&P 500 breadth expanded significantly, a bullish short-term bias is likely; however, consolidation for broader indices and longer-duration bonds is a roughly even chance after recent rallies.

Market Indices

The provided market data for DAILY_PCT_CHANGE across IJR, IWM, MDY, OEF, SPY, and QQQ for the past 14 days contains a significant anomaly. Specifically, all symbols report a -100% change for November 27, 2025. This value is highly anomalous and likely represents missing or corrupted data rather than actual price action. Consequently, our analysis will exclude this specific data point, focusing on the most recent valid closing data from November 26, 2025, for the daily percent change matrix and breadth analysis.

On November 26, 2025, the market demonstrated uniform positive breadth. All six tracked symbols posted gains, indicating a broad-based advance across different market capitalization segments. IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) led with a 0.8934% increase, closely followed by QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) at 0.8869%. SPY (S&P 500 ETF) and OEF (S&P 100 ETF) showed moderate gains of 0.6859% and 0.6380%, respectively. MDY (S&P MidCap 400 ETF) advanced by 0.6145%, and IJR (S&P SmallCap 600 ETF) registered a 0.5326% gain. This unanimous positive movement suggests strong underlying buying interest across the market on this particular day.

The price action over the full 14-day period tells a story of initial strength followed by a notable pullback, concluding with a robust recovery. Several symbols experienced significant declines around mid-November (e.g., November 13, 17, 20), with IJR, IWM, and QQQ often showing the largest percentage drops. For instance, IJR fell by -2.09%, -2.20%, and -1.74% on those respective dates, while IWM saw drops of -2.81%, -1.99%, and -1.85%. QQQ also experienced sharp declines, including a -2.35% drop on November 20. This pattern indicates a period of considerable selling pressure, particularly impacting smaller and technology-focused indices.

However, the most recent four valid trading days (November 21-26) show a marked shift. All symbols have recorded consecutive positive daily changes, often with substantial gains. IJR rebounded sharply with +3.14% on November 21 and +2.61% on November 25, similar to IWM’s +2.83% and +2.18% on those days. QQQ also displayed strong recovery, notably with a +2.58% gain on November 24. This consistent positive momentum, particularly the multiple days of significant advances across all indices, strongly suggests a short-term bullish trend is currently dominant, effectively negating the prior selling pressure. The character of the trend shifted from a likely corrective phase to a probable recovery or reversal.

Looking forward, the current robust rally suggests that buying momentum is strong. It is highly probable that the market will attempt to sustain these gains in the immediate term. However, after such a sharp rebound following a period of weakness, it is also a roughly even chance that we may see some consolidation or a minor pullback as traders lock in profits. The prior declines were notable, especially in small-caps, implying that the market’s underlying strength will need to be further confirmed by sustained positive price action and volume (though volume data is not provided) to definitively establish a new long-term uptrend. A re-test of support levels established during the recent upswing is possible if momentum wanes.

Market Commentary: Technical Analysis of Key ETFs (Nov 11 - Nov 28, 2025)

The provided 14-day market data across SPY, QQQ, IWM, IJR, MDY, and OEF reveals a distinct two-phase pattern within this observation period. The period commencing November 11th initially showed a broad market-wide decline, characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows across all tracked ETFs. This downturn was accompanied by notably elevated trading volumes, particularly from November 13th through November 20th, suggesting strong selling pressure and conviction behind the initial downward move. For instance, SPY experienced a significant volume spike on November 20th, correlating with its low point within this initial phase. It is important to note that data for November 27th is absent across all symbols, precluding any technical analysis for that specific day. The market indices generally reached their lows around November 20th, establishing a significant support area after a substantial pullback from their November 11th opening levels.

Following the lows established around November 20th, a robust bullish reversal unfolded across all monitored ETFs. This recovery phase initiated with strong upward momentum, characterized by consecutive days of higher closes and, in some instances, significant gap-ups. The volumes during the initial days of this recovery, such as November 21st for IWM and SPY, remained high but then often moderated in the subsequent days compared to the peak selling volumes. This moderation in volume during the latter recovery stages is a characteristic that can accompany sustainable uptrends, though some consolidation or profit-taking might naturally reduce average trading activity. By the close of November 28th, most indices had reclaimed or surpassed their starting levels from November 11th, signaling a strong shift in market sentiment from the prior bearish period.

A critical observation within this recovery period is the apparent rotation in leadership. Small-cap and mid-cap indices (IWM, IJR, MDY) exhibited particularly strong relative strength, not only fully recovering their initial losses but notably exceeding their November 11th starting points. IWM, for example, closed at 248.75 on November 28th, significantly above its November 11th open of 243.38. In contrast, large-cap growth (QQQ) demonstrated comparative underperformance, failing to fully reclaim its November 11th opening level by the period’s end, closing at 619.25 versus its 620.57 open. SPY and OEF, while recovering to slightly above their initial levels, did not show the same pronounced upside momentum as the smaller capitalization segments. This pattern suggests a roughly even chance of continued relative outperformance from smaller-cap segments in the near term, should the overall market momentum persist.

Considering the strong reversal and recovery across the board, particularly the emphatic rebound in small and mid-cap segments, we judge that a continuation of this upward trend is likely in the immediate future, at least to test higher resistance levels. The recovery was swift and decisive, reclaiming significant price territory. However, given the substantial percentage gains in a relatively short period, a temporary consolidation or minor pullback is a plausible alternative scenario, especially if upward movements begin to occur on significantly decreasing volume. Such a pullback would likely seek reconfirmation of the recently established support levels around the November 20th lows. The overall technical picture, with consistent higher closes and successful reclamation of prior price levels, supports a bullish bias, though the relative underperformance of QQQ poses a remote chance of broader market weakness if growth stocks continue to lag the broader market’s renewed momentum.

SPY Technical Analysis: Late July to Late November 2025

The SPY ETF has exhibited a predominantly bullish trend over the past 90 days, starting from late July and extending into late November 2025. Initial price action in late July indicated some selling pressure with a notable decline around August 1st, accompanied by high volume, pushing the price from roughly down to .72. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) corroborated this, moving from overbought levels (above 70) in late July to approximately 47.66 on August 1st, suggesting a temporary exhaustion of upward momentum. Following this, SPY largely resumed an upward trajectory through August and September, punctuated by minor pullbacks. The consistent upward movement saw RSI frequently hovering in the 60s and occasionally breaking into overbought territory above 70, implying strong underlying buying interest.

A significant acceleration in the uptrend became apparent through much of October, with SPY establishing new highs. However, this period also introduced increased volatility, as evidenced by a sharp decline on October 10th (from .16 to .02) on exceptionally high volume (156.6 million shares), which abruptly pushed the RSI into oversold conditions at 41.81. This was followed by a swift recovery, indicating robust demand at lower price levels. A similar pattern emerged around October 22nd, where a price dip was quickly absorbed, and the ETF continued its ascent, with RSI moving back into the high 60s and nearing overbought thresholds by late October. The rapid recovery from these sharp drops suggests underlying strength despite profit-taking activities.

November’s price action has been characterized by heightened oscillations and deeper pullbacks compared to the preceding months, although the overarching trend remains upward. After peaking around .90 in late October, SPY experienced several notable corrections. A decline from early November to mid-November saw the RSI drop from the high 60s to the low 40s. A particularly sharp drop on November 20th, from .93 to .52, occurred on very high volume (154.7 million shares), driving the RSI down to 35.10. While not definitively below the traditional 30-level oversold threshold, this reading is sufficiently low to suggest that selling pressure was reaching an extreme, making a bounce likely. Currently, SPY has rebounded, with the latest closing price at .39 and the RSI recovering to 52.20 as of November 28th, indicating that the immediate oversold condition has been alleviated.

Given the recent data, it is moderately probable that SPY will attempt to retest recent highs set in late October/early November, possibly around the - range. The recovery from the oversold RSI condition and the subsequent upward price movement suggest that the bullish momentum is attempting to reassert itself. However, the increased volatility and the depth of the November pullbacks imply that a sustained breakout to new, significant highs may face considerable resistance. There is roughly an even chance that SPY consolidates around current levels or experiences further minor pullbacks before attempting to push higher, particularly given the recent high-volume selling days. An alternative scenario, with a slight chance, is that the market leadership is weakening, and the recent rallies represent a dead cat bounce, leading to a deeper correction; however, the quick absorption of selling pressure on previous high-volume down days mitigates this risk in the immediate term. It is important to note that the requested MACD_13_21_DAY indicator data was not provided for analysis; therefore, conclusions regarding momentum strength from MACD signals cannot be drawn.

Technical Analysis of QQQ (90-Day View)

The QQQ has displayed a predominantly bullish trend over the past 90 days, advancing from the mid- in late July to establish a significant peak exceeding in late October. This upward trajectory was characterized by several distinct rallies, frequently pushing the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) into overbought territory. Each instance of the RSI reaching above 70, such as in late July (73.11), mid-September (75.35), and late October (71.73), was typically followed by a period of price consolidation or a corrective pullback. This pattern suggests that while buying pressure was robust, it often led to short-term exhaustion as indicated by the momentum oscillator. Volume analysis reveals that significant downward moves, like the sharp decline on October 10 or the more recent drop in mid-November, were often accompanied by noticeably higher trading volumes, suggesting increased selling conviction during these periods.

The interaction between price action and the RSI provides critical insights into market momentum. The RSI consistently signaled periods where QQQ was potentially overextended, with values peaking above 70 multiple times. For example, the RSI high of 71.73 on October 29 coincided closely with the price peak of .77. Following this, the subsequent correction in early November saw the RSI retreat significantly, dropping from overbought levels towards the mid-40s. A more pronounced decline in mid-November pushed the RSI further down, reaching 35.35 on November 20. While this level is not strictly considered oversold (below 30), it represents a substantial relief from previous buying pressure and indicates a significant shift in short-term momentum from bullish to more neutral or bearish conditions.

Recent price action, specifically from mid-November through the close of the available data, indicates QQQ is attempting to recover from a sharp correction. Following the multi-month high on October 29, QQQ experienced a significant downward move, culminating in a low of .70 on November 20. This particular day saw exceptionally high trading volume at 111.78 million shares, reinforcing the intensity of the selling pressure. Since then, QQQ has initiated a bounce, closing at .25 on November 28. Concurrently, the RSI has rebounded from its mid-30s low to 52.15, suggesting an easing of the immediate selling pressure and a return to more neutral momentum. However, it is noteworthy that the volume accompanying this recent upward swing, especially on November 28 (23.00 million shares), has been comparatively lower than the volume observed during the preceding high-volume declines, which might indicate a less robust buying conviction.

Considering the technical landscape, QQQ is presently in a recovery phase after a notable correction. The rebound in price from the November lows, supported by the recovery of the RSI from its depressed levels, likely indicates that the immediate bearish momentum has waned. However, the relatively lower volume during this recent bounce compared to the volume on the preceding down moves suggests that the sustainability of the current rally is uncertain. There is a roughly even chance that QQQ could encounter resistance around the previous support levels, now acting as overhead resistance, particularly in the - area. Should buying interest intensify, accompanied by increasing volume, a retest of the prior resistance around - is likely. Conversely, if the buying volume remains subdued, QQQ faces a moderate probability of consolidating or even retesting the recent lows. It is important to note a discontinuity in the provided data, with the candlestick and RSI for November 27 showing zero values, which introduces a minor degree of caution in interpreting the very last data point in isolation.

Here is a technical analysis of IWM based on the provided market data:

IWM displayed significant volatility over the past 90 days, transitioning from an initial downtrend into a pronounced upward trajectory, followed by substantial corrections. The period began with IWM experiencing a notable decline from approximately .51 to a low around .92 in early August. This bearish phase was characterized by several red candles and notably higher trading volumes during down days, suggesting increased selling pressure. Subsequently, a robust bullish reversal emerged, propelling the price steadily higher, establishing a clear uptrend that peaked near by mid-September. This upward movement was largely sustained, albeit with intermittent periods of consolidation, indicating underlying buying interest. The volume profile during this rally generally supported the upward momentum, although some corrective phases saw volume spikes.

Following the mid-September peak, IWM entered a more volatile phase. A sharp decline was observed on October 10, marked by a significant price drop from approximately to .79 on exceptionally high volume, suggesting a notable shift in sentiment or profit-taking. Despite this, the market quickly staged a recovery, pushing to new highs near by mid-October, which was then followed by a period of sideways to slightly bearish consolidation through early November. The most recent segment of the data, spanning from early November, shows another significant price deterioration. Specifically, a sharp sell-off occurred from highs around .24 on November 10, culminating in a low of .14 on November 20. This downward move was accompanied by very elevated trading volumes, particularly on November 13, 14, and 20, which is often indicative of strong distribution or capitulation. The market has since experienced a sharp rebound, rallying from the November 20 low to .75 by November 28, also on robust volume, signaling renewed buying interest.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) provided valuable insights into momentum shifts throughout this period. In early August, the RSI descended to approximately 41, approaching oversold territory, which preceded the subsequent strong rebound. During the sustained uptrend from mid-August to mid-September, the RSI frequently entered overbought regions, such as 71.23 on September 18, confirming the strong bullish momentum. The October 10 sell-off saw the RSI drop from the mid-60s to approximately 44.97, nearing oversold conditions once more, which roughly coincided with the bounce thereafter. Most recently, the sharp decline in November drove the RSI to 32.63 on November 20, firmly in oversold territory. This deeply oversold reading was swiftly followed by a significant price recovery, with the RSI subsequently climbing back above 50, currently standing at 52.44 on November 28. It is important to note an anomalous RSI reading of 7.88 on November 27, which is shown without corresponding price or volume data. While this extremely low RSI value would typically indicate profound oversold conditions, the absence of associated price action on that specific day limits its interpretability regarding immediate market dynamics.

Considering the current technical posture, IWM appears to be in a recovery phase following the intense selling pressure that pushed it to oversold conditions in mid-November. The rebound from the .14 low to the current .75 level, supported by increasing volume and a return of RSI above the 50-mark, suggests a likely continuation of this upward momentum in the near term. The previous highs in the - range from mid-October will likely serve as initial resistance. A successful break above this range would suggest a reassertion of the broader bullish trend observed prior to the November downturn. Conversely, a failure to sustain the current rebound, potentially indicated by a return of the RSI below 50 and a decrease in buying volume, would imply a roughly even chance of the market retesting the recent low of .14. A sustained move below this level would increase the likelihood of a more significant bearish trend. The absence of MACD data prevents a comprehensive assessment of trend strength and potential crossovers, thereby introducing an element of uncertainty regarding the durability of the current rally.

VIX Fear Index

The provided VIX data reveals a distinct two-phase pattern over the 14-day period, initially marked by a rapid escalation in implied market volatility, followed by an equally swift abatement. The VIX commenced the period exhibiting relative stability, closing at 17.25 on November 11th and 17.48 on November 12th. A significant shift became apparent on November 13th, with the VIX closing at 20.37, representing a 16.53% daily increase. This move signals a likely onset of increased market apprehension among participants, pushing the “fear index” into higher territory.

The upward trajectory of the VIX intensified considerably over the subsequent days, indicating a surge in perceived market risk. Between November 17th and 20th, the VIX experienced substantial daily percentage gains, including 11.36% and 9.21%, culminating in a peak close of 26.41 on November 20th. On this day, the VIX recorded an intraday high of 28.27, which is the highest point within this dataset, underscoring a period of heightened market stress and uncertainty. The consistent bullish candle formations and strong positive daily changes during this phase strongly suggest that investor fear was notably elevated.

Following the volatility peak, the VIX underwent a sharp and sustained decline, signaling an unwinding of market fear. From November 21st to November 26th, the index consistently closed lower, with daily percentage drops ranging from -7.62% to -12.65%. By November 26th, the VIX had retraced significantly, closing at 17.20, effectively returning to levels observed at the very beginning of this 14-day window. This rapid descent implies that the prior period of elevated market apprehension has largely dissipated, with a return to a more composed market environment being highly likely. The sequence of strong bearish candles confirms this marked shift in volatility sentiment.

The data for November 27th presents an anomaly, showing zero values for open, high, low, close, and volume, accompanied by a -100% daily percentage change. This data appears unreliable for analysis; therefore, conclusions for this specific day are not feasible. However, on November 28th, the VIX opened at 17.41 and closed at 16.35, marking a new low for the analyzed period at 15.78 intraday. This continuation of the downward trend, even after the anomalous data point, reinforces the assessment that implied volatility expectations have receded. Based on the persistent bearish momentum in the VIX toward the end of the period, it is likely that market participants anticipate continued lower volatility in the immediate future, which typically correlates with a less fearful market environment. An alternative scenario, though less likely given the sharp downtrend, is that a temporary bottom for VIX is being established around the mid-16s, which could precede a period of consolidation rather than further decline.

Fellow traders,

The VIX Index, over the observed 90-day period, has exhibited a volatile pattern characterized by intermittent spikes followed by significant retracements. From late July to early August, the VIX surged from approximately 15.39 to a peak of 20.38 on August 1st, before receding to the mid-14s. For much of September and early October, the VIX largely oscillated within a contained range, generally between 14.50 and 17.50, suggesting a period of relatively moderate market anxiety. This pattern of contained movement was disrupted by two distinct, more pronounced surges, indicating shifts in market sentiment.

The first significant disruption occurred around October 10th, when the VIX swiftly advanced from 16.36 to 21.66, then consolidated before declining. The most pronounced surge within this 90-day window took place in November; from November 13th to November 20th, the VIX climbed steeply from 17.61 to its dataset high of 26.41. This sharp ascent was immediately followed by an equally dramatic decline, with the VIX retreating to 20.64 by November 24th and further to 17.20 by November 26th. The VIX data for November 27th shows anomalous values (open, high, low, close all at 0) which are excluded from analysis. On November 28th, the VIX closed at 16.35, marking a substantial pullback from its mid-November peak, returning to levels last observed in early October. Notably, MACD (13,21-day) data was specified but not provided, therefore it cannot be included in this analysis.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) largely mirrored VIX price movements, corroborating signals of momentum and potential exhaustion. During the early August VIX spike, RSI approached overbought levels at 65.38. The more significant VIX surge on October 10th saw RSI decisively enter overbought territory, reaching 73.09. Crucially, the VIX’s most recent major rally culminating on November 20th was accompanied by RSI again reaching an overbought reading of 71.67. In each instance, these overbought conditions were followed by a VIX price retreat, suggesting an exhaustion of buying pressure. The subsequent sharp decline in VIX from November 20th resulted in RSI falling from 71.67 to 48.07 by November 28th (excluding anomalous data), moving from overbought to neutral territory. This pattern suggests that periods of extreme VIX readings, especially those confirmed by overbought RSI, are likely followed by moderation or reversal.

Based on the provided data, it is likely that the VIX has completed its recent phase of heightened volatility, given the sharp retracement from the November 20th peak of 26.41 and the corresponding return of the 14-day RSI to neutral levels. The VIX’s current position at 16.35 places it back near levels that have historically acted as both support and resistance throughout the 90-day period. There is a roughly even chance the VIX could establish a new trading range around the 15.00-17.00 area, potentially indicating a period of lower volatility. However, if the VIX fails to hold above previous support around 14.50-15.00, it would be unlikely for the current downtrend to reverse immediately, potentially leading to further consolidation. Conversely, a strong rebound from the current level, especially with a swift re-entry of RSI into overbought territory, would indicate a re-escalation of market uncertainty, though this appears less likely in the immediate short term.

Tech Sector Analysis

The RATIO:QQQ/SPY over the observed 28-day period indicates a generally sideways to weakly declining trend in the relative performance of the NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) against the S&P 500 (SPY). Starting near 0.9067 on October 22nd, the ratio demonstrated an initial ascent, reaching its peak at approximately 0.9251 on November 3rd. This period suggests QQQ was outperforming SPY, indicating a preference for technology-heavy growth stocks. However, following this peak, the ratio experienced a notable decline, dropping to its lowest point of approximately 0.8954 by November 21st, signifying a shift where SPY began to outperform QQQ. The final days of the data show a modest recovery, with the ratio closing around 0.9061 on November 28th, very near its starting point, reinforcing the overall “sideways” classification despite the internal volatility and net negative change.

From a structural perspective, the peak observed around 0.9251 represents a significant resistance level that the ratio failed to sustain. This suggests that at that level, buying pressure in QQQ relative to SPY diminished, or selling pressure increased. On the downside, the low of approximately 0.8954 established on November 21st appears to be a clear support zone. The ratio has demonstrated a bounce from this level, indicating some degree of relative strength returning to QQQ. Intermediate resistance could be observed around the 0.9166 level, which was briefly tested and rejected earlier in the period. The current ratio of 0.9061 places it near the middle of its recent range, yet closer to the established support.

Considering alternative scenarios, a bullish case for QQQ relative performance would involve the ratio breaking decisively above the 0.9166 resistance and subsequently challenging the 0.9251 high. Given the preceding downtrend from the peak and the current “weak” trend strength, such a sustained upward move is unlikely in the immediate future without fresh momentum. Conversely, a bearish scenario would see the ratio break below the 0.8954 support level. This would imply that SPY is poised to continue its relative outperformance against QQQ. There is a roughly even chance of this development, particularly if the current minor rebound loses steam.

The most likely scenario, based on the provided data, is a continuation of the sideways consolidation within the approximate range of 0.8954 to 0.9166. The data’s identified “sideways” trend with “weak” strength supports this outlook, suggesting a lack of decisive conviction from market participants regarding the sustained outperformance of either QQQ or SPY. Technically, this implies that the market is currently in a phase of re-evaluation, where the collective sentiment on growth versus broad market exposure is in equilibrium. Sentiment drivers, interpreted solely through price action, suggest a shift from a preference for growth (when ratio rose) to a preference for broader stability or value (when ratio fell), with the current pattern reflecting indecision.

CMT Technical Analysis: QQQ/SPY Ratio (90-Day View)

Over the past 90 trading days, the QQQ/SPY ratio, a crucial indicator of technology and growth stock leadership versus the broader market, has exhibited a net positive appreciation of approximately 1.75%. This indicates a slight overall outperformance by QQQ-listed assets compared to SPY. Despite this positive change over the full period, the reported trend strength is categorized as “weak,” which suggests that the upward momentum has not been consistently robust or accelerating. The ratio has established a clear trading range during this period, finding significant support at its low of 0.8834 on September 2nd, and reaching a peak resistance at 0.9250 on November 3rd. The current ratio, standing at approximately 0.9061, is positioned above its 90-day average of 0.9010 and slightly above the midpoint of its observed range, indicating a neutral to slightly bullish relative stance at present. The overall volatility of the ratio has been notably low, which suggests generally stable, albeit sometimes weak, directional movements.

Analyzing the specific phases within this 90-day window provides further insight. Following the low on September 2nd, the QQQ/SPY ratio embarked on a sustained rally, which is likely indicative of strong technology sector outperformance. This uptrend continued without significant pullbacks until it established the 90-day high on November 3rd. Since that peak, however, the ratio has experienced a discernible pullback, declining approximately 1.89% from its high to the most recent data point. This recent decline suggests a shift where QQQ has been underperforming SPY over the past few weeks, erasing a portion of its earlier relative gains. From a technical perspective, the area around the 0.9250 peak now functions as a significant resistance level. Conversely, the prior rally high from mid-September, roughly around the 0.903-0.905 region, now appears to be acting as a short-term support zone, having been tested and held on several occasions in late October before the final push to the high.

Given the recent downturn from the November 3rd high, it is likely that the QQQ/SPY ratio will continue to consolidate or experience further downward pressure in the immediate future. The current ratio’s position just above the aforementioned short-term support area, around 0.905, presents a roughly even chance for either a minor rebound from this level or a continuation of the decline. A decisive break and sustained trading below this approximate 0.905 level would make a retest of the broader range’s average ratio (0.9010) or even the longer-term support zone around 0.88-0.89 more likely. Alternatively, should the ratio stabilize and find firm support at current levels, a re-attempt to challenge the short-term resistance around 0.910-0.915, a level that presented some resistance in early November, is possible. However, the ‘weak’ overall trend strength for the 90-day period suggests that a rapid re-acceleration to new highs above 0.9250 in the near-term is unlikely without a material shift in market dynamics not evident solely from this ratio data. The consistently low volatility throughout the observed period further implies that exceptionally sharp, sudden directional moves are generally unlikely based on the historical data presented.

IWM vs. SPY

The RATIO:IWM/SPY, representing the relative performance of the Russell 2000 (IWM) against the S&P 500 (SPY), has exhibited a distinct two-phase movement over the observed 28-day period. Initially, from October 22nd to October 24th, the ratio advanced from approximately 0.364 to a peak near 0.3683, indicating a brief period of small-cap outperformance. This was followed by a sustained decline, reaching a low of roughly 0.3497 by November 17th. This downward phase suggests a period where large-cap stocks, as represented by SPY, were outperforming small-caps. However, the most recent leg of the data shows a notable recovery, with the ratio climbing from its November 17th low to close at approximately 0.3640 on November 28th. While the overall trend for the entire period is categorized as “sideways” and “weak” with a slight negative percentage change, the recent upward momentum is evident, positioning the ratio near its starting point for the 28-day window.

Analysis of key levels reveals a few critical junctures. The high around 0.3683 appears to be a notable resistance level, as the ratio quickly retreated after reaching this point early in the period. Conversely, the low established near 0.3497 has acted as a significant support zone, where the decline found a floor and initiated a robust bounce. Intermediate resistance was encountered around the 0.362-0.363 area during the recent rally, which, after a minor pause, was overcome. The current position around 0.364 suggests this level, which served as both an early entry point and a resistance test during the decline, is now potentially being re-established as a support base.

The recent upward trajectory from the 0.3497 support level suggests that momentum has shifted in favor of IWM relative to SPY. This surge in the ratio, especially its ability to clear the intermediate resistance, implies a potential change in market sentiment. From a technical perspective, a sustained move higher in the IWM/SPY ratio would likely signal an increased appetite for risk among market participants, with capital potentially rotating towards smaller, more growth-oriented companies. Conversely, a reversal back below recent support levels could indicate a renewed preference for the perceived safety or stability of larger-cap stocks.

Considering alternative scenarios, a bullish case for the ratio suggests a high likelihood of testing the prior high around 0.3683 if the current upward momentum persists. Breaking above this level would establish a higher high, confirming a more constructive technical outlook for small-cap relative performance. A bearish case would emerge if the ratio fails to hold current levels and declines below the intermediate support zone around 0.362. A move below this would likely see a retest of the critical 0.3497 support, and a breach of that level would open the door to further underperformance for small-caps. A neutral case is also possible, where the ratio consolidates in the current range between 0.362 and 0.365, indicating that the market is roughly evenly split on the near-term relative prospects of IWM versus SPY, with no clear outperformance or underperformance emerging. Sentiment drivers, interpreted solely through this ratio’s movements, suggest that the recent bounce may reflect an evolving preference for broader market participation (small-caps) over technology-heavy large-caps, though a sustained trend is not yet definitively established.

CMT Technical Commentary: IWM/SPY Relative Strength Analysis (90-Day Horizon)

The IWM/SPY ratio over the past 90 days reveals a moderate upward trend in the relative performance of the Russell 2000 (IWM) against the S&P 500 (SPY). Beginning near 0.352 in late July, the ratio experienced an initial dip, reaching its 90-day low of 0.3456 on August 1st. This early period suggested a temporary underperformance by small-cap stocks relative to large-caps. However, the subsequent rebound established a foundational shift, leading to an overall positive bias. The ratio’s average across this period stands at 0.3601, with the current reading at 0.3639. This position notably above the average indicates that IWM has, on balance, shown a moderate degree of outperformance against SPY over the analyzed timeframe. The identified moderate upward trend, despite periods of fluctuation, suggests that the market has been selectively favoring smaller capitalization companies, at least on a relative basis, during this specific observation window.

Following its early August low, the IWM/SPY ratio embarked on a sustained rally, climbing to 0.3648 by late August. This period marked a clear phase of relative strength for IWM, with small-caps broadly outperforming large-caps. After a brief consolidation in early September, the ratio initiated another ascent, culminating in its 90-day high of 0.3763 on October 15th. This peak represented the strongest point of IWM’s relative outperformance within the observed period. The pattern leading to this high, characterized by higher highs and higher lows from the August base, is indicative of a robust intermediate-term uptrend in relative strength. This technical posture implied increasing investor preference for the growth potential or perceived value in the small-cap segment at that juncture.

The relative strength exhibited by IWM, however, proved unsustainable immediately after reaching its October 15th peak. The ratio subsequently entered a corrective phase, declining from 0.3763 to a low of 0.3496 by November 17th. This pronounced downturn represented a significant reversal of the preceding outperformance, suggesting that large-cap stocks (SPY) began to regain their leadership, or that investors were rotating out of smaller companies. This corrective action retraced a substantial portion of the gains from the August low, challenging the prevailing moderate uptrend. The sharp decline introduced a degree of uncertainty regarding the durability of IWM’s relative strength, as it approached levels last seen during the initial phase of underperformance. The speed of the correction, from peak to the November low, makes it unlikely that the upward trend in relative performance could resume without first establishing a new base or demonstrating clear bullish divergence from the prior trend.

As of the most recent data (November 28th), the IWM/SPY ratio has initiated a recovery from the November 17th low, currently resting at 0.3639. This rebound, taking the ratio back above its 90-day average of 0.3601, suggests a renewed, albeit nascent, period of relative strength for IWM. Should this recovery continue, the ratio would likely encounter resistance near the October high of 0.3763. A sustained move above this level would signal a resumption of the broader intermediate-term outperformance. Conversely, a decline below the 0.3601 average would suggest the recent recovery is a short-term bounce, indicating a roughly even chance that the ratio could test the November 17th low of 0.3496. A breach of the November low would strongly imply that SPY is reasserting its dominance. Traders should monitor the 0.3601 level as crucial near-term support and the 0.3763 level as a key resistance to gauge the continuation or reversal of IWM’s relative strength.

Commodities

The market data for DAILY_PCT_CHANGE across UGA, CORN, USO, DBC, GLD, CPER, SLV, and UNG presents a highly unusual and synchronous technical pattern. All listed commodities exhibit a daily percentage change of -100%. This indicates a complete depreciation in value for each asset based on the provided single-day data point. The matrix below summarizes this striking observation, sorted in descending order:

The price action for all listed commodities signals an extremely bearish direction with overwhelming downward momentum. A -100% daily change suggests a total loss of the prior day’s value. This synchronized collapse across a diverse range of commodities (grains, energy, precious metals, industrial metals) points to an event of unprecedented scale, implying a complete capitulation across these markets. From a technical perspective, the assets have ceased to hold value based on this single trading session.

In terms of support and resistance, the technical data indicates that all prior support levels have been decisively breached. With a -100% decline, the previous day’s closing price for each asset effectively acted as an ultimate resistance, as prices were unable to sustain any value above zero. The current price level, implied to be zero, offers no discernible support. Any historical charting would show a catastrophic breakdown with no identifiable floor based on this single data point.

Considering future price action, the immediate bearish case is fully realized, as a further decline beyond -100% is technically impossible from a percentage change perspective. A bullish scenario would necessitate a complete re-valuation of these assets from a near-zero base. This would represent an extraordinary and highly unlikely reversal, implying that market participants would collectively re-assign value to assets that, per the data, were completely depreciated. A neutral outlook is exceedingly improbable given the extreme nature of the reported price action. The current technical posture provides no basis for a consolidation phase or sideways movement; prices are either at their absolute minimum or begin a completely new, potentially volatile, upward trajectory from scratch.

Sentiment drivers in such an environment would be overwhelmingly negative. The synchronized -100% depreciation across multiple commodity classes strongly suggests an unparalleled level of panic and complete loss of confidence among market participants. This extreme technical event would likely lead to maximum fear and capitulation, overshadowing any fundamental considerations. Any potential rebound would be contingent on an unprecedented shift in investor psychology, signaling a belief that these assets now possess inherent value despite their ostensible prior complete depreciation.

Technical Analysis Commentary: Select Commodity ETFs (November 11-28, 2025)

This commentary analyzes the technical price action and volume characteristics for SLV, GLD, CORN, CPER, USO, DBC, UGA, and UNG over the 14-day period concluding November 28, 2025. Our assessment is based solely on the provided candlestick data and adheres strictly to rigorous technical analysis principles.

Precious metals ETFs, SLV (Silver) and GLD (Gold), exhibited notably robust bullish momentum during the latter half of the observation period. Both assets experienced an initial strong upward surge around November 12-13, followed by a brief consolidation or pullback. Subsequently, from November 24 to November 28, both SLV and GLD staged powerful rallies, demonstrating clear V-shaped recoveries. SLV’s significant breakout on November 26 and particularly on November 28, with its closing price reaching new highs for the period and accompanied by exceptionally high volume, suggests a high likelihood of continued upward price discovery. GLD mirrored this pattern, also achieving a new high on November 28. The synchronized strength and volume confirmation indicate a strong buying interest in these assets.

Industrial and broad-based commodity ETFs, CPER (Copper) and DBC (Diversified Commodities), displayed similar bullish reversals, aligning with the strength observed in precious metals. Both CPER and DBC endured a period of weakness and decline from roughly November 11 to November 21. However, they subsequently formed short-term bottoms and initiated clear upward trends from November 24 through November 28. Notably, strong bullish candles with increasing momentum were evident on November 26 and November 28, suggesting a significant shift in sentiment. We assess that this synchronized movement across diversified and industrial commodity exposures indicates a broader positive sentiment is likely developing within these sectors, pointing to a probable continuation of their upward trajectory in the immediate term.

The energy commodity complex, represented by USO (Oil), UGA (Gasoline), and UNG (Natural Gas), presented a more varied and less uniformly bullish technical picture. USO experienced an initial downtrend, followed by choppy price action and consolidation, with a modest recovery toward the period’s end. UNG showed a tendency for range-bound trading, characterized by an initial rally, subsequent pullback, and then a strong rebound into the close on November 28, with high volume throughout. UGA, in contrast, was primarily in a sustained downtrend throughout the 14 days, despite a noticeable bullish candle on November 28. While USO and UNG exhibited some late-period strength, UGA’s persistent lower highs and lows suggest that a clear bullish consensus has not yet emerged across the entire energy segment. We judge a roughly even chance for USO and UNG to either consolidate or retest their recent highs, while UGA is likely to face continued downward pressure if this trend persists.

CORN (Corn) also experienced a downtrend from its early-period highs, settling into a consolidation phase around the 17.50 level before staging a modest rebound towards the end of the period. The rebound, while positive, lacked the aggressive conviction observed in the metals and broad commodity indices. The relatively subdued volume during its recovery suggests that buying interest is less robust. We assess that a continuation of this short-term upward bounce is possible, but without further bullish confirmation and increased volume, a retest of the 17.50 support zone or further consolidation remains a plausible scenario. It is important to note that all observed data sets contained a data gap for November 27, 2025, with zero values across all price and volume metrics. Overall, the technical data for this 14-day period points to a bifurcated market within commodities, with a strong likelihood of continued bullish momentum in precious and industrial metals, while energy and agricultural commodities appear to exhibit more contained or conflicting trends.

Technical Analysis of SLV (90-Day Period)

This analysis provides a technical assessment of the SLV (iShares Silver Trust) based exclusively on the provided 90 days of 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) and daily candle data. It is important to note that while the combined chart mentioned MACD_13_21_DAY, the corresponding MACD data was not supplied, and therefore, cannot be incorporated into this technical review.

SLV’s price action over the past 90 days has primarily demonstrated a significant bullish trend, characterized by two distinct upward impulses punctuated by a notable correction. From late July to mid-August, the asset traded within a relatively narrow range before initiating a strong uptrend in late August. This initial bullish phase propelled prices higher until mid-October, reaching approximately . Following this peak, a clear corrective period ensued, with prices retreating and momentum stabilizing in early November. A renewed upward movement then began, successfully challenging and subsequently surpassing previous resistance levels.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI_14_DAY) consistently corroborated the price movements throughout this observed period. During the robust August-October rally, RSI frequently registered overbought conditions, often exceeding the 70 threshold and peaking above 84. This pattern strongly suggested sustained buying pressure and robust upward momentum, with no significant bearish divergences against the price highs. The subsequent price correction in late October was mirrored by a sharp decline in RSI, which plummeted from overbought levels to below 50, indicating a substantial dissipation of bullish momentum. This concurrent movement reinforced the interpretation of the pullback as a genuine re-evaluation by market participants.

In the most recent trading days, SLV has exhibited a renewed and aggressive push higher. We note an extreme RSI reading of 11.75 on 2025-11-27, which appears to be an anomaly, highly probable due to the corresponding zero values across all candle data points (open, high, low, close, volume) for that day, suggesting a non-trading day or data error. Consequently, this RSI reading is unlikely to reflect organic market sentiment. However, the price action on 2025-11-28 is particularly significant: SLV recorded a strong bullish close at .21, establishing a new high for the 90-day observed period on substantial volume. This decisive price breakout, following earlier attempts to retest previous highs around the level, suggests a likely continuation of the upward trend. The RSI, recovering to 54.28, does not yet indicate overbought conditions, suggesting further room for upward movement may be available without immediate exhaustion.

Considering alternative scenarios, while the current price action is distinctly bullish, a failure to sustain above the recently breached resistance level in the coming days would present a roughly even chance of a false breakout or a potential double top formation in relation to the November 12th high. In such an event, a retest of the - support zone would become likely. However, given the strong closing price and accompanying high volume on 2025-11-28, the immediate outlook points towards a likely continuation of the short-term rally. Traders are advised to monitor whether the newly established high around -.27 successfully transforms into a new support level.

CMT Technical Analysis: GLD (90-day RSI & Price Action)

GLD’s price action over the last 90 days has exhibited distinct phases, characterized by an initial period of consolidation, followed by a robust multi-month uptrend, and concluding with a significant corrective move. From late July to late August, GLD traded largely sideways between approximately and , with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) largely fluctuating around the 50-mark. This early phase indicated a period of accumulation or market indecision, with no clear directional bias evident from the momentum indicator.

A strong bullish impulse initiated in late August, propelling GLD into a sustained rally that peaked in mid-October. During this ascent, GLD’s price advanced from around to a high of .15 on October 20th. Concurrently, the 14-day RSI demonstrated exceptionally strong momentum, consistently residing in overbought territory (above 70), frequently exceeding 75, and peaking at 87.33 on October 20th. The sustained high RSI readings during this period are a clear technical indication of persistent buying pressure and robust bullish sentiment. Furthermore, the higher trading volumes often observed on days of price appreciation during this uptrend suggest broad market participation in the rally.

The robust uptrend experienced a sharp and significant reversal on October 21st. Following the price peak of .15 and an RSI of 87.33, GLD’s price declined substantially to .24 the very next day. This sharp price drop was accompanied by remarkably high trading volume (over 53 million shares), a pattern that often signals capitulation or a significant shift in market sentiment. The 14-day RSI simultaneously collapsed from 87.33 to 60.02. This synchronized bearish price action and sharp momentum loss strongly suggest that the preceding uptrend had reached a major inflection point, and it is highly probable that a short-to-medium term top was established.

Following the October 21st reversal, GLD entered a discernible corrective phase. Price action from late October into early November showed further declines or sideways consolidation as the market digested the previous rally. The 14-day RSI mirrored this correction, dropping into the lower neutral zone and briefly dipping below 50, indicating a loss of upward momentum and a shift toward bearish or neutral sentiment. A subsequent attempt at a rebound was observed in mid-November, bringing the RSI back above 60 and price recovering, but this momentum appears to have lacked follow-through.

A notable data anomaly is present on November 27th, where the 14-day RSI is reported at an extreme low of 6.45, while the corresponding candle data indicates zero values for open, high, low, close, and volume. The extreme RSI reading on this day is highly improbable given the absence of any valid price movement and is likely a data error or an unrecordable event. Therefore, this specific RSI value for November 27th should be interpreted with extreme caution, if at all. Focusing on the more reliable data for November 28th, GLD showed a notable rebound in price, closing at .88, with the 14-day RSI settling at a neutral 52.61. While this indicates renewed short-term bullish interest, the broader technical structure since the October peak suggests that GLD is now in a consolidation or potential downtrend channel. There is a roughly even chance that this recent bounce may continue in the very short term; however, it is probable that GLD will face resistance at higher levels, or that a retest of the recent lows is plausible if sustained buying volume does not materialize.

Gold/Silver Ratio

The GLD/SLV ratio over the last 28 days presents a clear and strong downtrend, evidenced by a significant -11.91% change from its high to its recent low. The ratio began the period around 8.60, briefly spiking to a high of 8.6559 on October 27th, which now stands as a notable resistance level. Following this peak, the ratio commenced a steady descent, indicating a persistent relative outperformance of SLV against GLD. Momentum appears strongly to the downside, with the ratio closing at its lowest point of 7.5743 on November 28th, suggesting sustained selling pressure on GLD relative to SLV.

During its decline, the ratio established several provisional levels. After the initial peak, it found temporary support around the 8.35-8.40 zone in late October/early November, before breaking decisively below this range. A subsequent consolidation phase occurred around the 8.17-8.20 level in mid-November, which, once breached, solidified as an intermediate resistance. The most recent leg of the downtrend saw the ratio fall sharply from the 8.26 level on November 21st to the current 7.57 low. This 7.57 level now functions as immediate support, while previous consolidation zones around 8.17-8.20 and 8.35-8.40 will likely act as resistance should the ratio attempt a rebound.

Considering alternative scenarios, a bullish case for the GLD/SLV ratio, implying GLD outperforming SLV, would likely require a reversal from the current low. A sustained move back above the 8.00 psychological level, followed by a successful test and breach of the 8.17-8.20 resistance zone, would be a preliminary indication of shifting sentiment. However, given the strong downtrend, the probability of an immediate, sharp bullish reversal appears low.

Conversely, the bearish scenario, which seems more probable given the current momentum and established trend, anticipates a continuation of the ratio’s decline. A breach below the current 7.57 support level would likely signal further relative weakness for GLD, potentially targeting lower historical levels if such data were available. The strong directional move suggests that the path of least resistance remains downward. A neutral outlook would involve the ratio stabilizing around its current 7.57 level, possibly forming a base or entering a period of sideways consolidation before the next directional move. The likelihood of this scenario developing in the immediate short term is roughly even, particularly after such a significant decline.

The observed price action in the GLD/SLV ratio suggests a discernible shift in market participant sentiment over the analyzed period. The consistent decline indicates a growing preference or perceived strength in silver (SLV) relative to gold (GLD). This could be driven by various factors internal to these metals, such as differing supply-demand dynamics or evolving investor perceptions of their safe-haven characteristics versus industrial utility. For the near future, the prevailing sentiment appears bearish for the ratio, with a continuation of SLV’s relative outperformance being a likely outcome unless strong technical buying pressure emerges to challenge the established trend.

As a Chartered Market Technician with over 15 years of experience, I have analyzed the provided 90-day data for the GLD/SLV ratio, focusing strictly on its technical patterns and adhering to estimative language guidelines. The observed period, spanning from July 24, 2025, to November 28, 2025, reveals a market decisively favoring GLD over SLV, as indicated by a “strong down” trend in the ratio. Starting near 8.74, the ratio reached its peak at 9.2024 on August 1st before embarking on a sustained decline, culminating in its 90-day low of 7.5743 on the final data point. This represents a substantial -13.36% depreciation in the ratio over the three-month window.

The price action displays a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows, which is the hallmark of a downtrend. After the initial peak in early August, the ratio experienced a period of consolidation, failing to reclaim the 9.0 level and subsequently breaking down from a support zone around 8.8-8.9 in September. This area then transitioned into resistance. The descent gained momentum throughout October, breaking below the psychological 8.0 level in mid-November and exhibiting an accelerated decline in the most recent trading days. The rapid drop from 8.14 on November 25th to 7.57 on November 28th underscores significant bearish pressure and a likely increase in downside volatility within this short-term window.

Presently, the GLD/SLV ratio sits at its lowest point of the observed 90-day period, as confirmed by its “relative position: 0.” This absence of any prior discernible support levels within this dataset means there’s no immediate technical floor to arrest the decline. Given the explicit “strong” trend strength and the sharp momentum evidenced by the latest price action, it is highly likely that downward pressure will persist in the immediate term. Traders should anticipate the continuation of this bearish bias, at least until new technical patterns emerge to suggest otherwise.

While the prevailing trend is unequivocally bearish, technical analysis necessitates the consideration of alternative scenarios. A short-term relief rally or bounce from current depressed levels cannot be entirely ruled out, though its probability is assessed as unlikely without compelling bullish candlestick formations or a significant increase in buying volume (which is not provided in this dataset). However, even if such a bounce were to occur, a substantive reversal of this strong downtrend is unlikely without establishing a clear bottoming pattern. Previous breakdown levels, such as the recently breached 8.0 and the 8.2-8.3 range, are now likely to serve as immediate resistance, capping any potential upside moves in the near future.

Bonds

The recent daily percentage change data across the provided bond ETFs reveals varied momentum, with longer-duration instruments exhibiting more pronounced movements compared to their shorter-duration counterparts. On 2025-11-26, the last valid trading day, the daily performance was as follows:

Analysis of the 14-day data, excluding the invalid -100% values on 2025-11-27, suggests distinct trends. TLT and UTHY, representing longer-duration bonds, demonstrated strong upward momentum over the past five valid trading days (Nov 20-26), culminating in notable positive closes. Prior to this, both experienced significant pullbacks on Nov 13 (-0.80% for TLT, -0.56% for UTHY) and Nov 14 (-0.58% for TLT, -0.62% for UTHY), indicating that these magnitudes of daily decline represent significant selling pressure or profit-taking events. The recovery from these levels suggests a momentum “support” area, where buying interest resumed after notable corrections.

For IEF and IEI, intermediate-duration bonds, the price action over the 14 days was generally positive but with smaller magnitudes of daily change compared to TLT and UTHY. IEF, despite a few minor negative days, has largely trended upwards in the latter half of the period, albeit with less conviction than the longer-duration funds. IEI’s movements have been even more contained, frequently oscillating close to zero. SHY, representing short-term bonds, shows highly restricted daily percentage changes, typically within +/- 0.1%. Its movements are largely neutral, with its most recent valid close on Nov 26 being marginally negative. This tightly contained price action for SHY suggests strong resistance to significant daily directional momentum.

Considering potential future price action, a bullish case for TLT and UTHY is likely if their recent upward momentum continues, potentially driving daily gains beyond the 0.5% mark. A sustained break above their previous high positive daily changes (e.g., TLT’s 0.54% on Nov 24) would confirm this strength. Conversely, a bearish scenario would involve a sharp reversal, with daily losses exceeding the -0.5% to -0.8% range, indicating renewed selling pressure. For IEF and IEI, a continuation of their mild positive drift is a roughly even chance, while a bearish case might see them revert to their earlier slight negative biases from Nov 10-14. SHY is likely to remain largely neutral, with any directional bias being extremely limited.

Sentiment appears to be cautiously optimistic for longer-duration bonds, as evidenced by the sustained rebound in TLT and UTHY following earlier pullbacks. This suggests underlying buyer demand that absorbs selling pressure. The more subdued performance of intermediate and short-duration bonds (IEF, IEI, SHY) indicates a more balanced or uncertain sentiment in those segments, with neither strong buying nor selling conviction currently dominating. The general absence of extreme volatility (aside from the noted pullbacks) across the board implies that market participants are absorbing information without significant panic or exuberance within these bond categories. However, the data does not provide context for these movements beyond the percentages themselves.

Market Commentary: 14-Day Treasury ETF Technical Analysis (TLT, UTHY, IEF, IEI, SHY)

Our 14-day technical analysis of the selected Treasury ETFs (TLT, UTHY, IEF, IEI, SHY) reveals a consistent pattern of an initial price decline followed by a robust recovery and rally across most duration segments. It is important to note that all instruments show an absence of trading data for November 27, 2025, which introduces a discontinuity in the short-term price action leading into the final trading day observed. This necessitates interpreting the November 28 activity somewhat independently, albeit within the context of the preceding trend.

The long-duration TLT experienced an initial drop from approximately .11 to a low of .87 by November 14, characterized by notably elevated selling volume. Following this dip, TLT established a strong upward trend, climbing significantly to a peak of .64 by November 26, with volumes generally supportive of this rally. However, the trading session on November 28 for TLT showed a marked pullback from its open and intra-day high, closing lower at .21 on very high volume. This price action, combined with the substantial volume, suggests an increased likelihood of either profit-taking or renewed selling pressure entering the market, which may challenge the immediate bullish momentum.

Mid-term Treasury ETFs, including IEF (7-10 Year), IEI (3-7 Year), and UTHY (3-7 Year), largely mirrored TLT’s broader price trajectory. All three observed initial weakness, followed by a clear rally through November 26. IEF’s ascent from its mid-period low of .45 to .67 was particularly distinct, supported by increasing volume. Similarly, on November 28, IEF, IEI, and UTHY all presented candlesticks with closes below their opens or with significant upper shadows, indicating a loss of upside momentum. For IEF and UTHY, the pullbacks from their intra-day highs on November 28 were on solid to relatively high volume respectively, further implying that immediate upward continuation is less likely without a period of consolidation or further downside testing.

In contrast, SHY, representing 1-3 Year Treasuries, demonstrated notable price stability throughout the 14-day period. After a minor initial dip, SHY engaged in a steady, gentle upward crawl from approximately .82 to .09 by November 25. Its price action on November 26 and November 28 remained relatively stable near these recent highs, with less pronounced pullbacks compared to the longer-duration ETFs. This suggests that the short-term segment of the Treasury market experienced more resilient demand or less speculative selling pressure. Given the relatively muted response on November 28, it is likely that SHY will continue its stable price action or exhibit minimal volatility in the immediate term.

Considering the collective evidence, the general recovery and rally observed across most Treasury ETFs through mid-November suggests underlying demand for fixed income during this period. However, the price action on November 28 for TLT, IEF, IEI, and UTHY, characterized by closes below opens or significant upper shadows on elevated volume, presents a technical signal of potential short-term weakness or exhaustion after their respective rallies. It is roughly even chance that these longer-duration ETFs will experience further consolidation or a moderate pullback in the very near term, as sellers appear to have entered the market. An alternative scenario, though less immediately supported by the November 28 candle patterns, is that this activity merely represents routine profit-taking before a renewed attempt at higher prices, provided existing support levels hold.

Magnificent 7 & Friends

The provided 14-day daily percentage change data reveals a market segment with significant volatility. The “-100%” data points for all symbols on 2025-11-27 are highly likely to be data anomalies; therefore, analysis concludes with 2025-11-26 data. An initial period of widespread selling pressure transitioned into notable rebounds in the last few trading days, suggesting an unlikely shift in immediate sentiment from bearish to cautiously bullish.

Through 2025-11-26, AVGO and GOOGL exhibited robust recent momentum, with multi-day gains peaking at 11.12% and 6.31% respectively on 11/24. ANET, TSLA, META, AAPL, and MSFT also displayed positive momentum, recovering from earlier declines. These sharp upward reversals, especially on 11/24 and 11/25, likely represent short-term support zones where buying interest became dominant. Conversely, pronounced early-period declines (e.g., CRWV’s -16.38% on 11/11, TSLA’s -6.64% on 11/13) likely indicate previous resistance levels. CRWV shows persistent high volatility and deeper overall declines, suggesting continued underlying weakness. NVDA and AMZN presented mixed signals, implying a roughly even chance of either direction.

The bullish case is supported by the broad-based recovery from 2025-11-24 through 2025-11-26. Substantial daily gains across key names suggest renewed buying interest. If this upward momentum persists, it is likely the short-term trend has shifted from corrective to impulsive. Participation of several large-cap technology names further strengthens the argument for an improving positive sentiment among market participants, indicating a willingness to buy dips following prior sell-offs.

Conversely, the bearish case remains plausible. Significant prior declines for many stocks indicate considerable underlying selling pressure preceding the recent rebound. These recent rallies could be interpreted as technical bounces within a broader downtrend, sometimes referred to as a “dead cat bounce.” Should current buying interest prove transient or fail to overcome prior resistance levels implied by previous sharp drops, it is plausible that downward momentum could reassert itself. Persistent volatility in CRWV and NVDA suggests bearish sentiment is not fully dissipated.

Considering alternative scenarios, a neutral outlook holds a roughly even chance given the persistent volatility and mixed performance across the 14-day period. The market, based on these daily changes, appears to be grappling with the sustainability of the recent rebound. While widespread late-period buying suggests a short-term shift towards opportunistic buying after significant drops, the absence of specific price levels or volume prevents a definitive assessment of this shift’s strength or longevity. This dynamic could lead to a consolidative phase as buyers and sellers contend for control.

Market Commentary: Technical Analysis of Selected Equities (November 11-28, 2025)

This analysis provides a technical perspective on the provided daily candlestick data for TSLA, MSFT, AAPL, META, NVDA, AVGO, GOOGL, AMZN, CRWV, and ANET spanning November 11 to November 28, 2025. It is important to note that November 27 shows no trading activity across all symbols, likely indicating a market holiday or missing data, and is thus excluded from active trading pattern analysis.

A notable divergence in performance is evident across these large-cap technology and related stocks over the observed 13 trading days. Several names demonstrated robust bullish momentum and price appreciation, while others exhibited clear bearish trends or were in stages of recovery from earlier declines. Volume patterns largely confirmed these directional moves, with higher volumes frequently accompanying significant price shifts.

Bullish Momentum and Strength: AAPL, GOOGL, META, and AVGO all displayed a strong bullish bias, particularly in the latter half of the period. AAPL, after an initial period of consolidation and minor decline, rallied significantly, with its price closing near the high of the 13-day range. This upward movement was supported by increasing volume, especially on November 21 and 24, suggesting strong accumulation. GOOGL also exhibited powerful upward momentum, notably recovering swiftly from a large bearish candle on November 20, indicating strong underlying demand that propelled the stock to new period highs on substantial volume. META’s trajectory was similarly impressive, transitioning from an initial dip into a clear and sustained uptrend, culminating in new highs for the period on consistently high volume. AVGO presented the most compelling bullish structure, rallying aggressively and breaking above prior resistance levels with robust and escalating volume. The rejection of a strong bearish attempt on November 20 by subsequent buying pressure highlights considerable bullish conviction. Continuation of these upward trends is likely, barring any significant shifts in trading dynamics.

Bearish Trends and Weakness: Conversely, NVDA, AMZN, MSFT, and CRWV exhibited persistent bearish patterns. NVDA experienced a pronounced downtrend throughout the period, characterized by several large red candles on elevated volume, particularly on November 20 and 21. While there were minor attempts at recovery, the overall price structure suggests dominant selling pressure, and a continuation of the downtrend appears likely. AMZN likewise sustained a consistent downward movement, with price declining from its initial levels. Although a modest recovery was observed in the final days, it lacked significant volume confirmation and the price remained well below the period’s opening, suggesting this recovery has only a roughly even chance of evolving into a sustained reversal without stronger volume support. MSFT also remained in a discernible downtrend, finding temporary support but failing to initiate a strong recovery that would negate earlier losses. CRWV was the weakest performer, suffering a steep and continuous decline marked by high volatility and significant downside volume, consistently setting new lows. The observed late-period bounce in CRWV is unlikely to signal a reversal given the extent of prior selling pressure and the lack of strong follow-through volume.

Mixed Trends and Recoveries: TSLA and ANET presented more complex scenarios characterized by initial weakness followed by significant recoveries. TSLA initially experienced a sharp decline but subsequently underwent a V-shaped recovery, recouping much of its losses with increasing volume towards the end of the period. This strong recovery suggests a potential shift in sentiment, making a test of earlier highs likely. However, the magnitude of the prior decline indicates a period of consolidation might be required before a sustained breakout occurs. ANET initially declined significantly, marked by high-volume selling on November 20-21. Interestingly, this sharp sell-off was followed by a substantial rebound, retracing most of the losses. While impressive, the recovery volume was generally lower than the peak selling volume, suggesting this could be a short-term bounce or a retest of a broken support level now acting as resistance. Therefore, the trajectory of ANET has a roughly even chance of continuing its recovery or retesting lower levels in the near term.

S&P 500 Sector Breadth

The market data for 2025-11-27 displays an anomalous -100% daily change for all evaluated sectors, rendering it unsuitable for technical analysis of recent price action. Consequently, our analysis will focus on the most recent valid daily percentage changes, observed on 2025-11-26. Over the preceding 14 days, the price action across these sectors appears to have been characterized by notable volatility. A period of declines, particularly evident around mid-November, was broadly observed across many sectors. However, the data for 2025-11-26 strongly suggests a significant short-term rebound or recovery from this prior weakness, with the overwhelming majority of sectors closing positively. This pattern indicates that a prior downward momentum has likely abated, at least temporarily, giving way to a more constructive, albeit nascent, positive daily trend.

Market breadth on 2025-11-26 was overwhelmingly positive. Out of the eleven S&P 500 sector ETFs analyzed, ten registered advances, while only one experienced a decline. This broad participation to the upside suggests widespread strength and a favorable environment for bulls on this particular trading day. Such robust breadth typically indicates that market gains are not concentrated in just a few areas, which could lend more credibility to the short-term positive price action observed.

Examining sector performance on 2025-11-26 reveals a mixed but predominantly offensive advance. Among the offensive sectors (XLK, XLY, XLF, XLI, XLB, XLE), all six advanced, with XLB and XLK showing particularly strong gains. The defensive sectors (XLU, XLP, XLV, XLRE) also exhibited positive movement, with XLU and XLP leading among them. Notably, only XLV (Healthcare, a defensive sector) recorded a minor decline. This pattern suggests a roughly even chance of continued strength in both growth-oriented and stable sectors in the immediate term. However, the broad-based offensive sector participation indicates a willingness among market participants to take on risk, possibly signaling a shift away from extreme caution.

The overall market sentiment, based on the performance of these sectors on 2025-11-26, appears to be constructive, leaning towards moderately bullish. The robust advancement of both offensive and defensive sectors, with a slight tilt towards offensive leadership in terms of sheer number, implies that investors are likely regaining confidence following previous declines. There is a plausible indication of market rotation towards growth-oriented sectors, supported by strong performance in XLB and XLK. However, the concurrent strength in defensive sectors like XLU and XLP suggests that underlying caution has not entirely dissipated, presenting an alternative scenario where capital may still flow into perceived safe havens if momentum falters.

Market Commentary: Sector Performance Analysis (November 11 - November 28, 2025)

The provided 14-day technical data for the specified S&P sector ETFs (XLP, XLRE, XLI, XLU, XLV, XLY, XLF, XLB, XLE, XLC, XLK) reveals a common pattern across most, if not all, sectors: an initial period of decline or consolidation, followed by a robust bullish reversal and subsequent recovery into the period’s end. It is important to note the absence of trading data for November 27, 2025, which we interpret as a non-trading day and a data gap for all covered symbols. Despite initial selling pressure, a broad market recovery characterized the latter half of the period, concluding with generally positive momentum.

Several sectors demonstrated notable relative strength throughout this period. The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) stands out, exhibiting a clear uptrend with consistent bullish candles and robust volume, particularly a strong bullish engulfing pattern on November 21 accompanied by exceptionally high volume, suggesting strong conviction. The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) also showed significant resilience and strong gains, especially towards the latter part of the period, confirmed by noticeable increases in bullish volume. The Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC) and Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLB) similarly carved out strong bullish reversals, regaining their earlier losses and demonstrating sustained upward trajectories into the final trading day.

Conversely, some sectors experienced more pronounced initial weakness before their eventual recovery. The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) suffered particularly sharp downtrends early in the period, marked by significant bearish candles and very high volume. While both sectors mounted strong recoveries, their net performance over the full 14 days suggests a deeper wound from the initial selling pressure. For these sectors, a roughly even chance exists for either continued recovery or a period of consolidation as they attempt to digest prior volatility. Other sectors, including Financials (XLF), Industrials (XLI), Energy (XLE), Real Estate (XLRE), and Utilities (XLU), generally tracked the broader market’s pattern of initial dips followed by recoveries, with XLF’s rebound being particularly well-supported by volume. However, the volume profiles on the final trading day for some of these, such as XLE, XLU, and XLI, appeared less robust than earlier recovery days.

In conclusion, the overall technical picture emerging from this 14-day data strongly suggests a bullish short-term bias for the market as a whole, driven by the widespread and often well-supported bullish reversals observed. The collective recovery from mid-period lows is a constructive technical development. While the reduced volume on November 28 across many ETFs might suggest a holiday-influenced liquidity dip rather than a loss of conviction, the established uptrends make a continuation of upward momentum likely in the immediate term, especially for sectors like XLV and XLP that demonstrated clear relative strength. For sectors such as XLK and XLY, where the initial decline was steeper and recovery volume somewhat less convincing, a period of price retesting or consolidation remains a possible alternative scenario before a firmly established sustained uptrend can be definitively confirmed.

XLY vs XLP

The XLY/XLP ratio has exhibited a moderate downtrend over the observed 14-day period, commencing from a high of 3.0947 on November 11th and closing at 2.9792 on November 28th, representing a -3.73% decline. This sustained downward movement initially indicated a period where consumer discretionary stocks (XLY) were moderately underperforming consumer staples (XLP). The ratio established a clear low of 2.8691 on November 20th, signaling the peak of this short-term relative weakness for discretionary sectors. This price action suggests a tactical shift within the market during this initial phase, favoring more defensive positioning.

Following the low established on November 20th, the ratio initiated a noticeable recovery, climbing back to 2.9674 by November 24th and peaking at 2.9904 on November 25th. This rebound represents a significant short-term reversal from the preceding downtrend, indicating that XLY found support and began to regain some relative strength against XLP. The current ratio of 2.9792 resides slightly above the 14-day average of 2.9742 and is positioned near the midpoint of the observed range, at 48.81% from its low. This recent consolidation after the bounce implies a struggle between the prevailing moderate downtrend and the emergent short-term buying interest.

Considering the data, it is likely that the underlying moderate downtrend, as indicated by the overall 14-day movement, may resume unless the ratio can sustain a decisive breakout above the recent bounce high of 2.9904. There is a roughly even chance that the ratio will continue to consolidate around its current level, near the period’s average, as market participants assess the sustainability of the recent recovery. A continued failure to surpass 2.9904, coupled with subsequent closes below the 14-day average, would indicate a moderate probability that the broader downtrend will reassert itself, potentially targeting a retest of the 2.8691 low. Conversely, a sustained move above 2.9904 would offer a slight probability of negating the current moderate downtrend, suggesting a more robust shift in relative strength.

As a seasoned Chartered Market Technician observing the 90-day performance of the XLY/XLP ratio, my analysis focuses strictly on the provided technical data, illustrating the relative strength of Consumer Discretionary (XLY) against Consumer Staples (XLP). Over this period, the ratio has demonstrated a moderate upward trend, advancing approximately 8.79% from its initial value of 2.738 to the current level of 2.979. This overall upward trajectory, occurring with a volatility of 0.0166, suggests a prevailing “risk-on” sentiment where investors have, on average, favored growth-oriented discretionary spending over defensive staples, albeit with some notable fluctuations within the trend.

Following an initial period of consolidation and a dip to its 90-day low of 2.695 on August 1st, the XLY/XLP ratio initiated a discernible upward momentum. From mid-August through mid-September, the ratio embarked on a more sustained rally, decisively breaking above the 2.80 level. This phase culminated in a significant high of 3.080 on September 22nd. The breakthrough of the psychological 3.00 level during this ascent was a critical technical event, indicating a strengthening conviction among market participants regarding the outperformance of XLY. This period of robust ascent was generally well-supported, with only minor pullbacks that held above preceding support zones.

Subsequent to the September rally, the ratio entered a consolidation phase, predominantly trading between the 3.00 and 3.15 levels throughout October. This period, characterized by a reduced rate of ascent, allowed the ratio to establish a higher base of support. The ultimate peak of 3.199 was reached on November 3rd, marking the highest point within the observed 90-day data. This peak formation at the higher end of the consolidation range, following an extended run, could be interpreted as a point where buying pressure began to wane, encountering substantial resistance in the 3.15-3.20 area.

A notable short-term correction ensued after the November 3rd peak, with the XLY/XLP ratio declining sharply to a low of 2.869 by November 20th. This approximately 10% retracement from the high was the most significant pullback within the 90-day window, effectively breaching the lower boundary of the prior consolidation range and signaling a shift in short-term sentiment. The speed of this decline minimally suggests a period of profit-taking or a temporary rotation out of discretionary assets. However, an immediate rebound has commenced from the 2.869 level, with the ratio climbing to its current value of 2.979, establishing 2.869 as an important immediate-term support.

Considering the recent price action, there are two primary scenarios that appear to have roughly even chances of unfolding in the immediate term. Should the current rebound from the 2.869 support continue, the ratio would likely target the previous consolidation zone, specifically the psychological 3.00 level and potentially extend towards the 3.10 mark as its next resistance test. A sustained move above 3.00 would moderately increase the probability of a re-test of the 3.15-3.20 resistance band. Conversely, if the current rebound stalls or reverses prior to overcoming the 3.00 level, it would suggest that the selling pressure observed earlier in November may resume. In this alternative scenario, a re-test of the 2.869 support is likely, and a decisive break below this level would minimally suggest a higher probability of further declines towards the 2.70-2.80 region, indicating a more significant shift away from the leadership of consumer discretionary stocks.

Equity Breadth

The observed data for S&P 500 breadth indicators over the 14-day period reveals a dynamic shift in underlying market strength. Initially, from November 11th to November 20th, there was a pronounced contraction in market breadth. The percentage of S&P 500 members trading above their 50-day Moving Average (SPXA50R) declined significantly from 49.2% to a low of 29.6%. Concurrently, the percentage above their 200-day Moving Average (SPXA200R) also decreased, from 54.8% to 42.6%, albeit with less severity. This period suggests a bearish short-term trend in participation, indicating widespread selling pressure pushing many constituents below their respective moving averages.

Following this weakness, a robust and broad-based recovery commenced. From November 21st to November 26th, SPXA50R surged from 41.2% to 57.2%, while SPXA200R moved from 48.6% to 55.4%. The data point on November 27th, showing 0% for both indicators, is highly anomalous and likely represents a data reporting discontinuity rather than an actual market event; thus, it is excluded from trend analysis. On November 28th, SPXA50R rocketed to 80.76%, and SPXA200R rose to 61.12%. This strong recovery indicates a significant shift to a bullish phase in market breadth, with widespread participation now supporting higher prices.

The current state, marked by both SPXA50R above 80% and SPXA200R above 60%, suggests the S&P 500 is in a very strong short-term technical uptrend, underpinned by healthy long-term participation. Such high readings often precede periods of market strength, though we believe the speed of the recent advance in breadth may present some risk of consolidation in the near term. An alternative scenario, however, is that this renewed breadth confirms a sustained bullish impulse, with the underlying market structure indicating resilience after the mid-November pullback. The overarching trend transitioned from a short-term contraction to a powerful, broad-based expansion, implying a significant increase in bullish momentum across the index.

SPY 180 Days

SPY exhibited a strong bullish trend from early April to late October 2025, recovering sharply from early April lows around 481.8. Price reclaimed and consistently traded above its 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The 50-day EMA’s cross above the 200-day EMA around early May provided a “Golden Cross,” confirming the uptrend. However, from late October through November 26, a significant shift occurred. Price broke decisively below the 50-day EMA (early November) and then the 200-day EMA (mid-November), indicating a strong weakening of bullish momentum and a potential shift towards a bearish intermediate-term outlook. The last reliable close for full technical consideration is 679.64 on November 26.

Key price levels define current technical boundaries. The peak resistance is the late October high near 689-690. The 660-670 zone previously acted as resistance. Descending 50-day and 200-day EMAs now present dynamic resistance. On the downside, the August consolidation lows around 630-635 represent the first notable support. A more substantial support zone exists around 570-575, significant from earlier price action. The deep April low of 481.8 is a critical long-term reference, but a retest of this level is currently assessed as unlikely in the near-term.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) generally mirrored price momentum. During the April-October uptrend, RSI frequently entered overbought territory (above 70), confirming strong buying interest. The subsequent October-November decline saw RSI move into the lower half of its range, reflecting increasing selling pressure. The RSI stood at 56.84 on November 26. However, data for November 27, 2025, shows anomalous zero values for open, high, low, close, and volume. This severely compromises the reliability of calculated EMA and RSI values for November 27 and November 28, meaning the reported RSI of 5.07 on November 27 should not be interpreted as a genuine market signal of extreme oversold conditions.

Technical sentiment drivers for the near future will largely hinge on price interaction with key levels. A bearish case is likely, implying continued downward pressure toward the 630-635 support level. Persistent selling momentum, characterized by failures to reclaim EMAs or hold current levels, would reinforce negative sentiment, possibly leading to 570-575. Conversely, a bullish case is currently less likely, given the recent trend shift. However, the reported price for November 28 at 683.39 indicates a significant rebound from the prior day’s implied extreme low. Should this strength be sustained and SPY reclaim its pre-anomaly EMA levels, it could signal renewed bullish sentiment, challenging the 689-690 resistance. The neutral case carries a roughly even chance, depicting consolidation within a tighter range, reflecting mixed or indecisive market sentiment as participants seek equilibrium.

SPY Technical Analysis: 180-Day Review (March - November 2025)

SPY exhibited a robust underlying uptrend over the analyzed 180-day period, despite experiencing a significant correction early in the timeframe. The price action initially showed minor weakness in March, culminating in a sharp, high-volume decline in early April from approximately to a low near . This downturn was swiftly followed by a vigorous and sustained recovery, with SPY systematically overcoming previous resistance levels and establishing new all-time highs into the latter part of the period. The market has generally demonstrated resilience, with pullbacks being relatively shallow and followed by renewed upward momentum, indicative of a strong bullish trend.

Key price levels identified during this period include the approximate - zone, which functioned as critical support following the early April sell-off, preventing further downside. Subsequent rallies then encountered resistance at prior highs around -, which, upon a decisive breakout in May, transitioned into a significant support base for the ongoing uptrend. More recently, SPY has encountered resistance in the - range in late October. Volume analysis indicates heightened activity during periods of significant price movement, particularly during the sharp April decline and the subsequent strong recovery, suggesting conviction behind those moves. Recent price advances leading into the November period were generally supported by constructive volume.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) largely corroborated the price action. During the severe April downturn, RSI plunged into oversold territory, bottoming at 21.47 on April 8th. Historically, such extreme oversold readings make a near-term price rebound highly likely, which proved to be the case as SPY initiated its recovery. Throughout the subsequent rally, RSI frequently registered overbought conditions (above 70) across multiple months, notably peaking at 75.58 in late July and 71.17 in early October. These overbought signals generally preceded minor consolidations rather than significant trend reversals, underscoring the strength of the bullish momentum. The most recent valid RSI reading, as of November 28th, stands at 52.20. It is crucial to note an anomalous data point on November 27th where the close price was recorded as zero, leading to an unreliable RSI reading of 5.07 for that specific day; this data point has been disregarded in our momentum assessment due to its clear inconsistency with surrounding price data.

Currently, SPY appears to be undergoing a period of consolidation, trading below its recent all-time highs established in late October. The inability to sustain moves above the - resistance zone, coupled with the RSI retracting from overbought territory, suggests that a phase of consolidation or a minor pullback is likely in the immediate future. The volume observed during the initial phases of this recent pullback, such as on November 20th, was elevated, indicating some degree of selling pressure. While the trend remains upward-sloping, short-term momentum signals suggest a pause.

Considering alternative scenarios, a continuation of the current consolidation, potentially involving a shallow pullback toward the - level, is roughly an even chance. This area could potentially establish itself as new support. Conversely, a decisive breakout above the - resistance, ideally on increased volume, would make a re-acceleration of the uptrend towards new all-time highs highly likely. Should the - support fail to hold, a deeper correction towards the - area would become moderately likely. A comprehensive assessment of momentum using MACD is not possible as that data was not provided, limiting additional insights into potential trend shifts.