Weekly Market Technical Analysis

The market currently exhibits a predominant bearish bias with mixed technical signals across indices and asset classes. Over the past 14 days, major equity indices (SPY, QQQ) show a volatile downtrend, with large-caps facing likely continued downward pressure. While small-caps (IWM) show some recent buying interest, their overall trend is likely bearish. The VIX has surged above 20.00, signaling likely continued market apprehension. Commodities present a divergent picture: energy prices (UGA, USO) show strong momentum, while precious metals (GLD, SLV) and agriculture (CORN) are likely to experience further downside after sharp reversals. Long-duration bonds (TLT) are under severe selling pressure, making further declines highly likely. Technology and growth stocks largely show persistent bearish momentum, with sustained bullish reversals deemed improbable for heavily impacted names. Overall, SPY faces a roughly even chance of continued consolidation or shallow retracement from its recent peak.

Market Indices

Based on the provided technical data, the market exhibits a predominantly bearish breadth for the latest recorded day, November 14, 2025. The daily percent change for the selected symbols is presented below, sorted in descending order:

On November 14th, only two out of six symbols (IWM, QQQ) recorded positive daily changes, while four symbols (OEF, SPY, IJR, MDY) experienced declines. This distribution strongly suggests that market breadth was negative, indicating more selling pressure than buying interest across these representative indices for the most recent trading session. We assess it is unlikely that this narrow market participation in positive territory signals a robust underlying demand for equities.

The price action over the 14-day period reveals a pattern of significant volatility and evident selling pressure. Periods of sharp declines, such as October 28-30, November 4, November 6, and most notably, the broad sell-off on November 13, are interspersed with modest, often unsustained, rebounds. The magnitude of the declines, particularly on November 13, where all symbols dropped significantly (ranging from -1.64% for SPY to -2.81% for IWM), indicates a forceful capitulation from buyers. The subsequent trading day, November 14, failed to produce a strong recovery, with two symbols posting minor gains and the majority continuing to decline, albeit marginally. This suggests a lack of immediate follow-through buying enthusiasm after a substantial downside move.

We characterize the overarching trend for these indices over the past 14 days as a volatile downtrend or, at a minimum, a strong bearish consolidation. The repeated instances of lower lows and lower highs in several symbols, especially following the intense selling pressure, lend weight to this assessment. While short-term bounces have occurred, they have largely failed to negate the broader downward swings. Given the latest day’s mixed yet predominantly negative breadth and the subdued reaction following the significant decline on November 13, it is likely that the market remains vulnerable to further downside. Alternatively, should prices find support and initiate a multi-day rally with increasing breadth, it could signal a shift, but the current data does not strongly support this scenario.

Market Commentary: Technical Analysis of Major US Equity ETFs (October 28 - November 14, 2025)

The past 14 trading days have broadly indicated a market experiencing significant downward pressure across key US equity indices. A consistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows has emerged since late October, suggesting a shift towards a more bearish market posture. While there were intermittent attempts at recovery, these proved short-lived and were ultimately overshadowed by notable selling activity, particularly towards the end of the period, often accompanied by elevated trading volumes. This overall price action implies that market participants have been more inclined to sell into strength, underscoring a prevailing negative sentiment.

Large-cap benchmarks, including SPY (S&P 500 ETF), QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF), and OEF (S&P 100 ETF), displayed a largely synchronized decline throughout the observation period. Following an initial dip in early November, a modest, multi-day recovery attempt was observed between November 7 and November 12, characterized by a series of higher daily closes. However, this recovery proved unsustainable, as November 13 witnessed a sharp and decisive downturn across all three, accompanied by significantly elevated volume. This strong bearish price action effectively negated the prior short-term gains. On November 14, these indices generally gapped lower at the open, attempting to pare losses intraday but ultimately closing near the lower end of their recent range, with volume remaining very high. This pattern makes a continuation of the downward trend likely for large-cap assets in the immediate future.

Mid-cap (MDY) and small-cap (IJR, IWM) indices, while participating in the broader downtrend, exhibited some distinct characteristics. MDY and IJR demonstrated a relatively more robust bounce during the November 5-12 period compared to their large-cap counterparts, with MDY notably posting three strong consecutive up days, recapturing significant ground. However, this strength was abruptly reversed on November 13, which delivered a sharp, high-volume bearish candle for both, largely erasing their recent gains. IWM, the Russell 2000 ETF, experienced an even more dramatic bearish candle on November 13, resembling a bearish Marubozu, on exceptionally high volume, indicating intense selling pressure and a significant breakdown in its price structure.

Despite the pervasive bearish sentiment, the final trading day, November 14, introduced a potential point of divergence, particularly within the small-cap segment. IWM, after gapping down significantly at the open, executed a strong recovery from its daily low, closing with a hammer-like bullish reversal candle on exceptionally high volume. This specific candlestick pattern, occurring after a sharp decline and on such high volume, suggests some probability of aggressive buying interest emerging at these lower price levels, which could lead to a short-term bounce or consolidation for small-caps. While MDY and IJR also showed some intraday recovery from their respective gap-downs on November 14, their closing candles were less definitively bullish than IWM’s. For the broader market, as reflected by the large-cap ETFs, the high-volume selling on November 13-14 makes continued downward pressure likely, but the compelling IWM signal presents an alternative scenario where small-caps might attempt to stabilize or even lead a short-lived counter-trend rally. Therefore, a roughly even chance exists for either continued broad market weakness or a selective, short-term stabilization in the small-cap space.

SPY Technical Analysis: Navigating Recent Volatility within an Established Uptrend

Over the past 90 trading days, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has exhibited an overall uptrend, advancing from the low in mid-July to the low by mid-November. This upward trajectory was punctuated by two notable pullbacks. The first occurred in early August, declining from roughly to , accompanied by a surge in volume (over 140 million shares). The second, more substantial, occurred around October 10, dropping sharply from approximately to , on exceptionally high volume (over 156 million shares). This latter event likely established a significant support area around the level, from which SPY subsequently rallied. The most recent price action, specifically from late October highs near to the current range, suggests a short-term downtrend or consolidation. High volume on recent down days (e.g., November 13 and 14) further supports the notion of increasing selling pressure in the immediate term.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) provides insight into the underlying momentum of SPY. Throughout the observed period, RSI frequently entered overbought territory (above 70). Notably, sustained periods above 70 in late July (peaking at 75.58), mid-September (briefly exceeding 70), and early October (peaking at 71.17) consistently preceded price pullbacks or consolidations. This pattern suggests that when SPY’s upward momentum becomes extended, a period of cooling off is likely to follow. Conversely, the RSI dipped to 47.66 on August 1 and 41.81 on October 10, both coinciding with significant price lows during the aforementioned pullbacks. While these levels are not typically considered oversold (below 30), they indicate a substantial dissipation of upward momentum that often marked a temporary bottom before a recovery.

Currently, the RSI stands at approximately 48.17 (as of November 14), indicating neutral momentum and a lack of significant buying or selling pressure. This level is somewhat ambiguous; it does not strongly suggest either an immediate oversold bounce or a continuation of a severe downside move based on the traditional 70/30 thresholds. However, considering the recent price decline from the late October highs and the current neutral-to-weak RSI readings, a continuation of the short-term consolidation or further downward price pressure is a roughly even chance. The observed pattern of price retracements following overbought RSI conditions has been a recurring feature over the past 90 days, and the recent pullback from the peak occurred after RSI again approached the overbought threshold (69.71 on October 29).

An alternative scenario suggests that if SPY holds current price levels and the RSI begins to trend upward from its present neutral position, a rebound towards the recent high of or higher is plausible. The - region, established as a significant support after the October 10 plunge, would be a critical level to monitor for a more profound breakdown in the overall intermediate-term uptrend. A decisive breach below this level, particularly on elevated volume, would likely indicate a shift to a more bearish intermediate-term outlook. It is important to note that MACD indicator data was not provided for this analysis, which would typically offer additional insights into trend direction and momentum convergence/divergence. Therefore, conclusions are drawn solely from price action and RSI.

Technical Analysis of QQQ: 90-Day Outlook

This technical analysis of QQQ spans a 90-day period, focusing on price action, volume, and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI). It is important to note that MACD (13, 21-day) data, though specified, was not provided and therefore could not be incorporated into this assessment. From mid-July through early October, QQQ exhibited a robust bullish trend, with prices advancing from approximately to over . During much of this phase, the RSI (14-day) frequently indicated overbought conditions (readings above 70), suggesting strong, persistent buying pressure. Volume remained generally consistent throughout this upward movement, with notable spikes often coinciding with brief pullbacks, followed by subsequent recoveries. This pattern suggests that buyers were consistently stepping in to support the market on dips, reinforcing the overall bullish sentiment.

A discernible shift in market dynamics became apparent in early October. Following a peak near on October 9, QQQ experienced a sharp and significant high-volume decline on October 10, closing at .50. This event, characterized by an exceptionally high volume print of 94.4 million shares, likely signals a strong impulse of selling pressure and a potential change in market sentiment. Concurrently, the RSI plummeted from a reading of 69.27 to 45.42, decisively crossing below the 50-level. This crossover is often interpreted as a shift from bullish to bearish momentum in the short-term. Despite this sharp pullback, QQQ did manage to rally and establish a new price high of .77 by October 29. However, this recovery was met with comparatively lower volume than the October 10 sell-off, and critically, the RSI, while again moving into overbought territory (peaking at 71.73 on October 29), printed a lower high compared to its September peak (75.35 on September 22). This divergence, where price makes a new high but momentum (RSI) makes a lower high, constitutes a bearish divergence, strongly suggesting that the underlying upward momentum was weakening despite the price advance.

Following this confirmed bearish divergence in late October, QQQ has entered a pronounced downtrend throughout November. The price has steadily declined from the approximate level to around by November 14. This period of decline has been accompanied by several days of elevated volume, particularly observed on November 6 (68.7 million), November 7 (78.4 million), and November 13 (67.3 million). These higher volumes during down days reinforce the presence of sustained selling pressure. The RSI has consistently remained below the 50-level since November 4 and is currently registering 46.63. This sustained positioning below the momentum centerline indicates that bearish momentum is likely to persist in the near term. The recent price action on November 13-14, involving a significant drop followed by a modest rebound on relatively lower volume, does not convincingly challenge the established downtrend. The previous price peak near is now likely to function as a formidable resistance level.

Considering the recent price action, the pattern of elevated selling volume, and the confirmed bearish divergence in the RSI, it is likely that QQQ will continue to face downward pressure or enter a period of consolidation in the near term. The immediate significant support area appears to be around the - level, which aligns with the low established during the high-volume decline on October 10. A decisive break below this support level would likely confirm further downside potential. An alternative, less probable scenario, would involve a rapid and sustained reversal above the 50-level on the RSI, combined with a significant resurgence in buying volume, which could propel QQQ back towards the - resistance zone. However, absent such compelling technical confirmation, current indicators suggest a roughly even chance of either continued weakness towards lower support or a period of sideways trading as momentum indicators attempt to stabilize. The consistent pattern of higher volume during down movements and lower volume during recent bounces further reinforces the likelihood of continued struggle for bullish conviction.

As a Chartered Market Technician, I have analyzed the provided 90-day market data for IWM, focusing exclusively on candlestick patterns and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI). It is important to note that while the analysis requested MACD data, no such data was supplied, hence this indicator cannot be included in the assessment.

IWM’s price action over the initial period from mid-July to early August 2025 exhibited a generally consolidative to slightly downward trend, with prices fluctuating primarily between 212 and 225. This period was characterized by mixed candlestick patterns and varying volume. However, a significant shift in trend became apparent from early August, as IWM began forming a series of higher highs and higher lows, indicating a robust uptrend. This bullish momentum peaked in mid-October, with the highest close recorded at 250.33 on October 15, and an intraday high of 252.77. The volume during this uptrend showed intermittent spikes, notably on strong upward moves (e.g., August 12 and 22), lending some confirmation to the price strength.

The 14-day RSI largely corroborated the observed price trends. In July, the RSI hovered mostly above 50, indicating underlying bullish momentum, briefly touching overbought levels near 69.45. A dip into the lower 40s in early August coincided with a price low, possibly signaling a short-term buying opportunity. From mid-August through mid-October, the RSI consistently remained in bullish territory, frequently breaching the 60-level and occasionally crossing into overbought conditions above 70 (e.g., September 18 at 71.238 and October 6 at 68.07). These RSI readings reinforced the strength of the uptrend during those months.

However, the technical landscape appears to have shifted since mid-October. Following the peak, IWM began to form a series of lower highs and lower lows, suggesting a nascent downtrend or at least a significant correction. The price experienced notable declines, culminating in sharp drops on November 13 and 14. This recent price weakness has been accompanied by a discernible increase in volume, particularly on November 13, which often indicates heightened selling pressure and conviction behind the bearish move. Concurrently, the 14-day RSI has mirrored this deterioration in price, falling below the neutral 50-level from early November and currently resting near 41.36. This indicates that the bullish momentum has largely dissipated, with bears now appearing to exert greater control.

Given the recent price action forming lower highs and lower lows, coupled with the 14-day RSI trending downwards and approaching oversold territory, it is likely that IWM will continue to experience downward pressure in the immediate future. The high volume observed during the recent declines lends further credence to the potential for continued weakness. The previous congestion zone around the 235-237 region, seen in early September, might offer some interim support, but a more substantial support level based purely on the provided data appears around the 212-214 range, which marked the lows in early August. An alternative scenario, though less likely without a clear bullish reversal pattern emerging, could involve a rebound from current levels if the RSI were to dip into deeply oversold territory (below 30) and subsequently show signs of turning higher. For a sustained recovery, IWM would probably need to reclaim overhead resistance levels, with the 240.36 close from November 6 serving as a near-term hurdle.

VIX Fear Index

The VIX, commonly referred to as the “fear index,” has exhibited a notable upward trend over the past 14 trading days, advancing from an opening price of 15.95 on October 28th to a close of 20.07 on November 14th. This substantial ascent suggests a growing level of market uncertainty and expected volatility. The daily percentage change data corroborates this observation, revealing several significant upward movements, notably a 9.58% gain on November 4th and a 9.83% increase on November 6th. The sustained upward trajectory indicates that bearish sentiment or heightened risk perception among investors has been building, pushing the VIX above the psychologically significant 20.00 threshold, which often signals elevated market anxiety.

The VIX’s price action also highlights periods of significant internal volatility within this upward trend. While the index experienced a strong surge, it also saw notable pullbacks. For instance, the VIX posted a -5.09% decline on November 5th and a more substantial -7.90% drop on November 10th. These retracements suggest that periods of temporary relief or profit-taking have occurred, but these appear to have been transient corrections within the broader upward channel. The most significant single-day gain of 16.53% on November 13th, closing at 20.37, was a decisive move that firmly established the index above the 20.00 level, indicating a likely continuation of the heightened state of market apprehension.

Analyzing the candlestick formations, the VIX charted significant upper shadows on November 7th and November 14th, both reaching highs around the 22.72 to 23.03 range before closing lower. These long upper shadows likely suggest selling pressure or profit-taking emerged as the index approached these higher levels. This area, specifically around 23.00, could now serve as a near-term resistance point. While the VIX closed lower on November 14th with a -1.47% daily change, which might be interpreted as a potential reversal signal, the overall upward momentum from the preceding days makes it roughly even chance that this is a temporary pause or minor consolidation before the index either attempts to retest resistance or establishes a new trading range above 20.00. Sustained closes below 19.00 would be necessary to suggest a more significant abatement of fear.

VIX Technical Analysis: November 14, 2025

The VIX has exhibited a volatile trading pattern over the past 90 days, characterized by significant spikes in volatility followed by periods of consolidation or decline. Starting from mid-July 2025 in the 15-16 range, the VIX experienced its first notable surge in early August, peaking at an intra-day high of 21.90 on August 1st before retreating to the mid-14s by mid-August. A second significant spike occurred in early September, reaching 19.38 on September 2nd, which was followed by another decline into the mid-14s. The most pronounced upward movement began in early October, culminating in an intra-day high of 22.44 on October 10th. This was promptly followed by another substantial spike on October 17th, reaching a peak of 28.99 before closing significantly lower, which likely suggests an exhaustion move or strong selling pressure at that elevated level. Subsequent price action saw the VIX consolidate around the 16-17 range before attempting another rally in early November, pushing back above 20. The current data concludes with the VIX closing at 20.07 on November 14th, having registered an intra-day high of 23.03 on the same day. Key resistance levels appear to be forming around the 21-23 range, while support has been observed in the 14-15 area during calmer periods.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) provides additional insight into the VIX’s momentum. During periods of sharp VIX appreciation, the RSI has predictably entered overbought territory, as observed on October 10th when it reached 73.09, which is above the conventional 70-level threshold. This overbought condition was followed by a subsequent decline in VIX, indicating that such momentum extremes often precede pullbacks or consolidations. Similarly, when the VIX experienced significant declines, the RSI dipped into the mid-30s or lower 40s, such as the 37.11 level on July 25th, which often precedes a bounce in volatility. The most recent RSI reading for November 14th is 58.39. While not in overbought territory, this value is elevated compared to the mid-range, suggesting ongoing upward momentum but with a reduced probability of immediate further sharp acceleration compared to an RSI above 70. There is no clear, significant bullish or bearish divergence visible between the VIX price and the RSI within the provided dataset that would suggest a high-confidence reversal.

Considering both the price action and RSI, the VIX is currently positioned at a level where prior resistance has been observed. The long upper wick on the November 14th candle, reaching 23.03 before closing at 20.07, indicates that price encountered notable selling pressure near the upper end of its recent range. This pattern is often a preliminary signal of potential short-term exhaustion. Given that the RSI is currently at 58.39, it suggests that the VIX has room for further movement before becoming overbought, but the price action on November 14th makes an immediate, sustained push above the 23-24 range less likely. An alternative scenario involves the VIX consolidating around the current 20 level. Should it manage to close above the prior cluster of resistance levels in the 21-23 range, and with RSI remaining robust, a further upward move toward the October 17th high of 28.99 could become more probable. However, if the VIX fails to sustain above 20 and breaks below the 19-18 range, it would indicate a resumption of the prior pattern of spikes followed by declines, making a test of the 17-16 support levels likely. The absence of MACD data prevents a comprehensive assessment of trend strength and momentum divergence from that perspective, thus introducing a degree of uncertainty regarding cross-confirmation of potential signals.

Tech Sector Analysis

Analysis of the RATIO:QQQ/SPY over the past 28 days reveals a predominant sideways movement, indicating a period of relative equilibrium between the technology-heavy NASDAQ-100 and the broader S&P 500. The ratio commenced near 0.9034 on October 7th and concluded at 0.9060 on November 14th, representing a negligible net increase of approximately 0.28%. This weak upward bias suggests that while QQQ showed some periods of outperformance, it lacked sustained momentum over the full observation period. The current ratio, standing at 0.9060, is notably below the period’s average of 0.9118 and positioned towards the lower end of its observed range, suggesting recent weakness in QQQ’s relative strength.

The price action narrative within this timeframe depicts an initial dip to 0.9027 on October 10th, which established a foundational support level. Following this, the ratio initiated a climb, reaching a notable peak around 0.9250 on October 29th and again on November 3rd. This 0.9250-0.9257 zone clearly acted as significant resistance, as the ratio was unable to sustain these higher levels. Subsequent to this peak, the ratio experienced a retracement, pulling back towards the lower end of its trading range. Observable support appears to be established around the 0.9027 level, the lowest point seen in the period, and more recently, the 0.9050-0.9060 zone, where buying interest has emerged. A minor resistance level is also identifiable near 0.9160, where upward moves faced headwinds.

A plausible bullish scenario would involve the ratio successfully holding the identified support zone between 0.9050 and 0.9060. If this level acts as a firm foundation, it is a roughly even chance that the ratio could attempt to challenge the minor resistance at 0.9160. A decisive breach above this level would likely signal a resumption of the prior upward momentum seen in late October, with a subsequent test of the more significant resistance at 0.9250 becoming probable. A successful breakout above 0.9250 would indicate renewed conviction in QQQ’s outperformance.

Conversely, a bearish outlook would become more probable if the ratio decisively breaks below the 0.9050-0.9060 support zone. Such a breakdown would likely lead to a retest of the absolute low of 0.9027 observed earlier in the period. A failure to hold 0.9027 would suggest that SPY is gaining relative strength, making further declines in the ratio likely and implying a period of underperformance for the technology-heavy QQQ relative to the broader market.

A neutral scenario, which is also plausible given the “sideways” and “weak” trend strength reported, would see the ratio continue to oscillate within its established range. It is a roughly even chance that the ratio could trade between the 0.9027 support and the 0.9160 minor resistance without a clear directional bias for an extended period, reflecting continued indecision regarding the relative strength of QQQ versus SPY. Regarding sentiment drivers, it is important to note that the provided data consists solely of price and ratio information. Technical analysis, based on this specific dataset, does not inherently reveal sentiment drivers. Therefore, any speculation on sentiment drivers based strictly on this data would be an unsupported claim, and thus cannot be provided within the strict confines of this analysis.

Technical Analysis: QQQ/SPY Ratio (90-Day View)

The QQQ/SPY ratio, which measures the relative performance of the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) against the S&P 500 ETF (SPY), has likely exhibited an upward trend over the past 90 days, moving from approximately 0.887 in early July to its current level of 0.906. The provided data indicates an overall “up” direction for the trend, with a cumulative change of 2.08% over the analysis period. However, the trend strength is categorized as “weak,” and the volatility is notably low (0.0001029). This suggests that while QQQ has generally shown relative outperformance, its ascent has been gradual and incremental, characterized by periods of consolidation or modest pullbacks rather than aggressive, sustained surges. The ratio has traded within a range defined by a low of 0.8834 and a high of 0.9250.

A significant shift in short-term dynamics became apparent in late October. The ratio achieved its 90-day peak at 0.9249 on October 29th, marking the strongest period of QQQ’s relative outperformance. Since this high, the ratio has undergone a sustained decline, retreating to 0.9060 by November 14th. This constitutes a notable short-term reversal, indicative of SPY likely gaining relative strength or QQQ experiencing a period of underperformance. The magnitude of this pullback suggests a significant correction within the broader upward channel, potentially testing underlying support structures that have formed during the prior advance.

From a technical perspective, the ratio is approaching a critical juncture. Prior swing highs, specifically those around 0.902 on August 12th and 0.903 on September 19th/22nd, are likely to act as immediate support levels. These historical resistance points, once surpassed, often transform into new support zones. The current ratio of 0.9060 is situated just above this confluence of previous highs, suggesting that a test of this 0.902-0.903 support cluster is probable in the near term. Should this zone fail to hold, the next significant support could be found closer to the average ratio of 0.8997, and potentially extending towards the late August low of 0.886.

Looking forward, there are roughly even chances for two primary scenarios. The likely scenario involves the ratio finding firm support within the 0.902-0.903 range, thereby consolidating the recent decline as a healthy correction within the established “up” trend. A successful defense of this area would probably lead to a resumption of QQQ’s relative outperformance, with a potential rebound towards the recent bounce high of 0.9146 (November 10th), and possibly a retest of the 0.9250 peak, although the “weak” trend strength implies such a retest would unlikely be swift or highly impulsive. Alternatively, a sustained breach below the 0.902-0.903 support cluster would be a more concerning development, indicating that the relative strength shift towards SPY might be more enduring. In this less likely but plausible scenario, further downside toward the 0.890-0.895 range or even the 90-day low of 0.8834 would become probable, suggesting a more prolonged period of SPY outperformance.

IWM vs. SPY

The RATIO:IWM/SPY, which measures the relative performance of the Russell 2000 (IWM) against the S&P 500 (SPY), has exhibited a discernible downtrend over the observed 28-day period. Commencing around 0.3648 in early October, the ratio briefly peaked near 0.3763 on October 15th, indicating a temporary period where small-caps outperformed. However, since October 17th, the ratio has trended moderately downward, declining by approximately 3.13% to its current level of 0.3534. This persistent decline suggests a clear and sustained outperformance by the S&P 500 relative to the Russell 2000, consistent with a rotation away from small-cap exposure. The current ratio is notably close to its 28-day low of 0.3523, reinforcing the prevailing bearish momentum for small-caps relative to large-caps.

Analyzing the price action in detail, the peak around 0.3763 in mid-October established a significant resistance level. Following this peak, the ratio experienced a period of consolidation around the 0.368-0.369 level, which subsequently transformed into resistance as attempts to rally above it failed multiple times (e.g., Oct 20, Oct 24). The ratio then broke down further, establishing a new resistance zone around 0.360-0.362 in late October/early November, before its most recent leg lower. Immediate support for the ratio is currently observed at the 28-day low of 0.3523, reached on November 13th, with the subsequent day showing a marginal bounce.

Considering future price action, the bearish case is currently the most likely scenario. Given the established moderate downtrend and the ratio’s current position near its 28-day low, a continuation of IWM underperformance relative to SPY is probable. A break below the 0.3523 support level would very likely accelerate this trend, suggesting further rotation into large-cap names. Conversely, the bullish case, implying a significant reversal where IWM begins to outperform SPY, appears unlikely in the immediate term. For this scenario to develop, the ratio would need to reclaim and sustain levels above the prior resistance zones, first at 0.360-0.362, and then the more significant 0.368-0.369 level, which would require a considerable shift in momentum. A neutral case, where the ratio consolidates around current levels between 0.352 and 0.358, holds a roughly even chance if the 0.3523 support level proves resilient. This could indicate a temporary equilibrium in relative performance before a new directional move.

The persistent decline in the IWM/SPY ratio strongly implies a shift in market sentiment. This technical pattern suggests that investors are currently favoring larger, often more established companies that comprise the S&P 500 over the smaller, generally more growth-oriented or economically sensitive companies found in the Russell 2000. Such a preference often aligns with a “risk-off” sentiment or a perceived flight to quality, where market participants seek stability or concentrated growth in mega-cap leaders during periods of uncertainty. Alternatively, it could simply reflect a continued leadership bias towards certain sectors heavily weighted in the S&P 500. A reversal in this ratio would likely be driven by a notable change in this collective sentiment, perhaps indicating a renewed appetite for risk or expectations of broader economic expansion that benefits smaller capitalization companies.

Market Commentary: IWM/SPY Ratio (90-Day Analysis)

The IWM/SPY ratio, which measures the relative performance of the Russell 2000 (IWM) against the S&P 500 (SPY), has displayed a notable shift in its technical posture over the past 90 days. From a low of approximately 0.3456 observed on August 1st, the ratio embarked on a significant upward trend, signaling a period where small-cap stocks likely outperformed their large-cap counterparts. This rally culminated in a peak of 0.3763 on October 15th. However, following this peak, the ratio initiated a pronounced and sustained reversal. This downturn has largely retraced the gains from the August rally, indicating a likely resurgence in the relative strength of large-cap equities. The current ratio, standing at 0.3534 as of November 14th, reflects a -1.59% change from its 90-day average, confirming the recent bearish bias in relative performance.

The ratio’s present valuation places it within the lower quartile of its 90-day trading range, remaining above the August 1st low but notably below the 90-day average of 0.3599. This average, combined with the prior consolidation zone witnessed between late September and early October, ranging from approximately 0.360 to 0.365, now likely functions as a significant resistance barrier for any potential upward movements. Immediate technical support for the ratio appears to be established around the 0.351 to 0.352 levels. This area previously served as an intermediate bottom in mid-July before the robust rally in August. A decisive breakdown below this support would likely open the path for a retest of the 90-day low at 0.3456, implying an increased probability of continued relative underperformance for small-cap stocks.

The prevailing technical momentum for the IWM/SPY ratio is demonstrably bearish, characterized by a consistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows since the October 15th peak. This price action suggests that selling pressure has largely outweighed buying interest in recent weeks. While the decline from the October high has been significant, the provided volatility figure (0.00004586) suggests a relatively controlled pace of daily change within the context of the ratio’s overall movement, rather than an abrupt capitulation. An alternative scenario to consider is a successful defense of the 0.351-0.352 support zone. Should the ratio find sufficient buying interest at these levels, a short-term rebound towards the 0.359-0.360 resistance area becomes a roughly even chance. Nevertheless, without the emergence of a clear bullish reversal pattern in the data, such a rebound would likely be construed as a corrective move within the broader downtrend. A sustained break above the 0.360 level would be necessary to reconsider the current bearish bias in the near term.

Commodities

The daily performance data suggests a notable divergence in momentum across the commodity complex. Leading the gains are UGA (Heating Oil) and USO (Crude Oil), exhibiting strong positive momentum with increases of 2.424% and 2.103% respectively. This robust performance in energy-related assets implies significant buying pressure and a likely continuation of this upward trajectory in the immediate near term. Conversely, precious metals, particularly SLV (Silver) and GLD (Gold), show substantial weakness with declines of -3.099% and -1.823%. CORN (Corn) and UNG (Natural Gas) also demonstrate notable bearish momentum, falling by -2.119% and -1.789%. The broad commodity ETF, DBC, along with CPER (Copper), registered only marginal gains of 0.153% and 0.240%, suggesting a more neutral or indecisive sentiment in the broader market outside of specific energy strength.

Given only one-day price change data, identifying traditional support and resistance levels is not feasible. However, the observed price action provides insight into immediate psychological zones. The strong upward movement in UGA and USO implies that these assets have likely overcome any immediate minor resistance, signaling a potentially clearer path higher. Conversely, the significant declines in SLV, CORN, GLD, and UNG suggest these assets have probably broken below immediate support levels, indicating that selling pressure is currently dominant. This breakdown implies that prior support might now act as resistance on any rebound attempt, and further downside is likely if these levels are not swiftly reclaimed. The marginal gains in DBC and CPER suggest they are holding around a neutral equilibrium, where current prices act as a temporary pivot.

Considering alternative scenarios, a bullish case would entail a continuation of the robust energy sector performance (UGA, USO), potentially attracting broader market interest into commodities and lifting DBC. For the significantly weaker assets (SLV, GLD, CORN, UNG), a bullish scenario would require a swift reversal of current sentiment, which seems unlikely in the immediate term without new catalysts, implying that any bounce would probably be a technical retracement rather than a sustained uptrend. The bearish case appears more likely for precious metals and agriculture, where the current strong selling momentum could push prices further down. If this weakness spreads or if the energy rally falters, DBC would likely follow lower. A neutral case suggests that while energy assets might sustain modest gains, the pronounced weakness in precious metals and agriculture could find a temporary floor, leading to a period of consolidation. This scenario would result in a roughly even chance of mixed performance across the broader complex, with DBC and CPER oscillating within a tight range.

The divergent price action strongly implies specific sentiment drivers. The robust gains in UGA and USO probably reflect a bullish sentiment toward heating oil and crude oil, potentially driven by perceived supply-demand fundamentals or seasonal factors within the energy complex. Conversely, the sharp declines in GLD and SLV suggest a prevailing bearish sentiment towards precious metals, possibly indicating a reduced flight to safety or increased risk appetite elsewhere. The significant dip in UNG points to bearish sentiment for natural gas, while CORN’s decline implies negative sentiment in agricultural commodities. For DBC and CPER, the minimal positive change suggests a somewhat ambivalent market sentiment for general industrial and broad commodities, not strongly persuaded in either direction but possibly awaiting clearer signals from broader economic or supply-side data.

Technical Market Commentary: Two-Week Review (October 28 - November 14, 2025)

This commentary provides a rigorous technical analysis of the provided 14-day market data for select commodities and related ETFs, adhering strictly to technical patterns, price action, and volume metrics. Overall, the market exhibits a dichotomy with precious metals and natural gas showing strong bullish momentum before recent reversals, while crude oil and copper display more constrained movements or clear downtrends followed by attempts at recovery. Agricultural commodities, specifically corn, experienced a notable false breakout.

Precious metals, represented by GLD and SLV, demonstrated robust upward trajectories through the majority of the period. Both ETFs established a clear series of higher highs and higher lows, indicative of a strong underlying uptrend. SLV experienced a particularly powerful surge, climaxing on November 12 with a large bullish candle and exceptionally high volume, suggesting a breakout. However, the subsequent two trading days for both GLD and SLV (November 13-14) saw significant bearish price action on elevated volume, with SLV forming a strong bearish engulfing-like pattern on November 13 and GLD following suit with a deep retracement. While the November 14 candles for both show some buying interest off their lows (hammer-like for SLV, long-tailed red candle for GLD), the sharp rejection from recent highs makes a continued immediate rally appear unlikely. A period of consolidation or further pullback to retest prior support levels is likely before the next directional move becomes apparent.

In the energy sector, UNG (Natural Gas) sustained a very strong and consistent uptrend throughout the entire period, characterized by successive bullish candles and increasing volume, suggesting strong buying conviction. However, the November 14 candle, a large bearish candle with a prominent upper shadow and high volume, following a series of strong advances, indicates a potential exhaustion gap or reversal pattern. While the overall trend remains bullish, a short-term pullback is likely, and further upward momentum beyond current resistance levels appears less certain in the immediate future. USO (Crude Oil) presented a more complex picture; after initial consolidation, a significant bearish engulfing candle on November 12, accompanied by the highest volume of the period, suggests a decisive shift in sentiment to the downside. The following day reinforced this bearish bias, though November 14 showed a modest recovery. Further downside movement is a roughly even chance, potentially retesting the 69.6-69.8 support zone, unless persistent buying interest emerges on higher volume to negate the recent bearish signals. UGA (Gasoline) showed persistent strength, concluding the period with a strong bullish candle on heavy volume, indicating its individual bullish trend remains highly likely to continue.

Among the broader commodities, CPER (Copper) experienced an initial decline, finding support around the 30.50-30.70 range before an attempted recovery. A strong bullish candle on November 10, backed by decent volume, indicated renewed buying interest, but subsequent days saw CPER struggle to maintain momentum, ultimately closing near the middle of its recent range. A sustained upward move in CPER appears unlikely without clearer bullish conviction and higher volume. DBC (Broader Commodities Index) displayed a gradual, consistent upward drift, maintaining higher lows and higher highs, suggesting a healthy, albeit slow, uptrend is likely to continue. CORN, after trading in a tight range, staged a strong bullish breakout on November 13, supported by increased volume. However, this breakout was immediately and emphatically rejected on November 14 by a bearish engulfing (outside reversal) candle with even higher volume. This strong reversal pattern makes a sustained upward move highly unlikely in the short term, and a retest of the prior consolidation range’s support around 17.70-17.80 is highly probable.

SLV Technical Analysis: November 14, 2025

SLV exhibited a pronounced upward trend from late August through mid-October, with its price escalating from the mid- to a peak near .33 on October 15. This rally was characterized by sustained bullish momentum, frequently accompanied by elevated trading volumes, notably spiking to over 100 million shares on October 9. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) corroborated this strength, consistently entering and remaining in overbought territory (above 70) throughout much of September and early October, reaching a peak of 84.32 on October 13. While such sustained overbought conditions indicate strong buying pressure, they also suggest a market that is becoming increasingly extended and vulnerable to a correction.

A sharp reversal of momentum occurred from mid-October, with SLV experiencing a significant price decline back into the low- by October 27. This correction was marked by large bearish candles and substantial selling volume, indicating a swift shift in market sentiment. The RSI concurrently plummeted from its overbought highs to the mid-40s by late October, confirming the dissipation of bullish momentum and the establishment of a bearish short-term trend. Following this sell-off, SLV underwent a period of consolidation through early November, with prices generally ranging between and , and RSI values largely oscillating around the 50-55 neutral zone, reflecting a balance between buyers and sellers.

Most recently, SLV initiated a renewed upward push in mid-November, with the price advancing from approximately .76 on November 4 to establish a new high of .345 on November 12. This rally drove the RSI higher, reaching 69.08 on November 12, nearing the overbought threshold of 70. However, the latest two trading days (November 13-14) witnessed a sharp decline in price from this peak, with SLV closing at .96 on November 14. This rapid retreat was accompanied by increased selling volume, and the RSI quickly fell back to 56.45, failing to sustain its approach to overbought conditions. The inability of the RSI to surpass its previous high from October (84.32) while price made a new high suggests a potential bearish divergence, implying weakening underlying momentum even as price made a marginal gain.

Based on the provided data, a short-term topping pattern is likely to be forming following the failed rally attempt in mid-November. The immediate rejection from the new high on high volume and the rapid retreat of the RSI from near-overbought levels suggest that bullish conviction is currently insufficient to sustain further upward movement. It is plausible that SLV will test the support levels established during the late October consolidation, particularly in the - range, in the immediate future. The likelihood of a sustained advance from current levels without a prior period of further consolidation or a deeper pullback appears to be low. Investors should note that MACD data was not provided for this analysis, limiting the scope of momentum assessment to RSI and price action alone.

GLD Technical Analysis (90-Day View)

GLD’s price action over the last 90 days depicts a pronounced uptrend that culminated in a significant peak, followed by a sharp correction and subsequent attempts at stabilization. From mid-July through August, GLD traded largely within a consolidation band, generally between and . A noticeable shift occurred in late August, initiating a robust rally that extended through September and into mid-October. During this period, GLD ascended from approximately to a high of .30 on October 20th, marking a substantial bullish phase. This strong upward movement was characterized by increasing volume in key breakout days, suggesting conviction behind the rally. The subsequent price action saw an abrupt and significant decline from the October 20th peak, followed by attempts to find support and consolidate in late October and early November.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) largely corroborated these price movements, serving as an effective momentum indicator throughout the period. During the July-August consolidation, the RSI fluctuated around the neutral 50-level, reflecting balanced buying and selling pressure. As the bullish trend gained traction in late August, the RSI consistently moved into overbought territory (above 70), indicating strong upward momentum and increasing buying interest. Readings peaked at an extreme 87.33 on October 20th, coinciding precisely with the price high. This sustained period in overbought conditions, particularly readings above 80, typically flags an increased likelihood of a price correction or consolidation. The sharp decline post-October 20th was mirrored by a rapid descent in the RSI, quickly pulling it out of overbought conditions and into the neutral zone, eventually reaching lows in the upper 40s by early November, signaling a significant loss of bullish momentum.

It is important to note that the MACD (13,21-day) indicator data was not provided in the market data set for analysis; therefore, this commentary is solely based on price action and RSI readings. The confluence of GLD’s price reaching an all-time high in the observed period and the RSI registering extreme overbought levels on October 20th strongly suggested that a period of retracement or correction was highly likely. The subsequent price action confirmed this expectation, with GLD experiencing a significant pullback. The decline, although sharp, appears to have found some interim support in the - range in late October and early November, where the RSI also stabilized above the 40-level.

Considering the most recent data, GLD’s modest recovery attempts in early November, which saw the price re-approach the and the RSI briefly rise back above 60, appear to be losing steam. The price action on November 14th, characterized by a notable price drop from the prior day’s close and a significant retreat in the RSI from 61.31 to 54.66, suggests renewed selling pressure. This implies that the current bounce from the late October lows is likely encountering considerable resistance. Further downward price movement is slightly more likely in the immediate term, with a re-test of the - support zone having a moderate probability. Should GLD breach this support zone on increased volume, there is a moderate probability of the downtrend accelerating towards lower price levels. Conversely, for GLD to re-establish a more constructive technical posture, it would require a sustained close above the prior resistance levels around -, ideally accompanied by a decisive push of the RSI back above 65, which currently appears unlikely given the immediate technical signals.

Gold/Silver Ratio

The GLD/SLV ratio has exhibited a moderate downward trend over the past 28 days, declining approximately 3.09%. The ratio commenced the period around 8.44, reaching a peak of 8.655 on October 27th, before descending to its recent value of 8.180. This consistent decline suggests that SLV (silver) has been outperforming GLD (gold) during the observed timeframe. Momentum currently appears to be shifting slightly; after reaching a low of 7.985 on November 12th, the ratio has shown a modest upward correction, indicating a potential short-term deceleration in the downtrend. However, the overall directional bias over the past month remains clearly negative, with the current ratio residing closer to its 28-day low than its high.

Key technical levels have emerged within this 28-day timeframe. The high of 8.655 is likely to act as a significant resistance level should the ratio attempt a recovery. Conversely, the low of 7.985 is a critical support level, which the ratio tested and bounced from recently. The average ratio over the period, approximately 8.336, could also present a minor resistance or pivot point if the current rebound continues. The current ratio of 8.180 suggests a relative position closer to the identified support, implying the recent upward movement has yet to overcome the broader downward momentum.

The near-term trajectory for the GLD/SLV ratio presents several scenarios. For a bullish case, a sustained move above the average ratio of 8.336 would be required to suggest a reversal of the recent downtrend. It is roughly even chance the ratio could test the 8.30-8.35 area in the near term, especially if SLV’s relative strength begins to wane. A convincing break above this zone would significantly increase the likelihood of a test of the 8.65 resistance. Conversely, for a bearish outcome, the probability is high that the prevailing downward trend will resume if the ratio fails to maintain its current rebound and falls back below the 8.10 level. A decisive break below the 7.985 support would strongly suggest further downside, making a new 28-day low likely.

A neutral scenario, where the ratio consolidates without a clear directional bias, is roughly even chance in the immediate future, potentially in the 8.10-8.30 range. This would imply a period of indecision, with neither GLD nor SLV establishing clear relative dominance. Based solely on the provided technical data, the declining GLD/SLV ratio likely reflects a market sentiment favoring silver over gold, which is often interpreted as an increased appetite for risk within the precious metals complex. The recent bounce from the 7.985 support might indicate temporary profit-taking in silver or a slight shift towards gold for safety, but a sustained reversal of this implied sentiment would require the ratio to break above established resistance levels.

As a Chartered Market Technician, I have analyzed the provided 90-day market data for the GLD/SLV ratio. This commentary focuses strictly on the technical patterns and data points presented, adhering to ICD-203 estimative language guidelines.

The GLD/SLV ratio has exhibited a clear and moderately strong downtrend over the past 90 days. Commencing from an initial ratio of approximately 9.07 on July 10th, the ratio reached a peak of 9.20 on August 1st before initiating a consistent decline. Over this three-month period, the ratio has fallen by approximately 9.83% to its current level of 8.18 as of November 14th. This sustained downward movement in the ratio indicates a period where SLV (silver) has systematically outperformed GLD (gold). The consistent formation of lower highs and lower lows from early August through to mid-November strongly reinforces a bearish technical posture for the ratio. Based on this established momentum, it is likely that GLD will continue to underperform SLV in the near-to-medium term, provided the current technical patterns persist.

Analysis of the data reveals several significant technical levels that have influenced the ratio’s trajectory. Following its 90-day high near 9.20, the ratio encountered notable resistance, leading to a retreat. A critical support level was observed around the 8.80-8.90 region during late July and August, where the ratio initially consolidated. However, this support was likely decisively broken in early September, signaling an acceleration of the downtrend. Subsequently, the ratio experienced a steep decline, establishing new lows and consolidating briefly around the 8.20-8.30 range in late September and early October. The failure of this consolidation to hold suggests that bearish momentum remains robust, making a sustained reversal unlikely without a significant change in market dynamics.

In the most recent trading days, the GLD/SLV ratio pressed to a new 90-day low of 7.98 on November 12th. This breach of prior lows is a significant technical development, indicative of strong selling pressure on the ratio. Following this new low, the ratio has experienced a modest rebound, currently trading around 8.18. This bounce could represent short-term profit-taking or a temporary retracement within the established downtrend. Based on the pattern of lower highs and lower lows, a retest of the recent low around 7.98 is likely. Should this critical support level fail to hold, the ratio could experience further significant declines. Conversely, a sustained move above the 8.30 level would challenge the immediate bearish sentiment and suggest a roughly even chance of a short-term consolidation.

While the prevailing technical evidence points to continued GLD underperformance relative to SLV, alternative scenarios must be considered. A decisive break and sustained trading above the 8.30-8.40 resistance zone would reduce the probability of further immediate downside, indicating a potential shift towards consolidation or a temporary reversal of the short-term trend. However, given the sustained nature of the downtrend and the recent establishment of a new 90-day low, a robust reversal to challenge the previous highs around 9.00-9.20 within the observed timeframe is currently highly unlikely. Traders should monitor the 7.98 support level, as its breach would confirm the continuation of the current downtrend, making it likely that GLD’s underperformance against SLV will persist.

Bonds

The latest daily percentage change data reveals a notable divergence in performance across the various bond duration ETFs. On the most recent day, the shortest-duration ETF, SHY, registered a marginal gain of 0.012%, while intermediate-duration bonds (IEI, IEF) experienced slight declines. In stark contrast, longer-duration ETFs, TLT and UTHY, posted more significant losses of -0.576% and -0.615% respectively. This pattern indicates a higher degree of selling pressure in the longer end of the yield curve, suggesting market participants are likely reducing their duration exposure or pricing in higher future interest rates.

Over the preceding 14-day period, the price action for TLT and UTHY exhibits considerable volatility and a dominant bearish bias. Both symbols frequently posted daily declines exceeding -0.5%, with notable drops past -1.0% on multiple occasions, such as October 29th and November 5th for TLT. While intermittent positive days occurred (e.g., November 6th with 0.92% for TLT), these rallies were generally short-lived and failed to reverse the broader downtrend. The recurring failure for positive momentum to sustain suggests an underlying resistance to upward movement for these longer-duration assets, while selling pressure appears to encounter temporary support after significant negative moves (e.g., after >-1.0% drops, a bounce often ensued).

For the shorter- to intermediate-duration ETFs (IEF, IEI, SHY), daily fluctuations were considerably more subdued. While also experiencing negative days, their declines were typically less severe than TLT and UTHY. For instance, IEF’s largest drop was -0.645% compared to TLT’s -1.11%. The resilience of SHY, with smaller negative moves and even some positive days, highlights its lower sensitivity to the bearish drivers impacting longer-dated bonds. This suggests support for SHY is likely encountered around the 0.0% to -0.2% daily change range, while resistance to significant positive moves appears to hold around +0.1% to +0.15%. For IEF and IEI, daily changes oscillating within roughly -0.7% to +0.5% define the recent trading range.

Considering alternative scenarios, a bullish case for TLT and UTHY would require a sustained series of daily gains, likely exceeding +0.9% for several consecutive sessions, breaking above the historical resistance points for daily percentage change. Given the recent data, this scenario appears unlikely in the immediate term. A bearish case, which is likely to develop, involves continued downward pressure on long-duration bonds, with TLT and UTHY experiencing further declines exceeding -0.5% to -1.0%, potentially pulling IEF and IEI into more significant negative territory. A neutral case would see these assets continuing to oscillate within their recent daily percentage change ranges, with no clear directional bias emerging for a period. This outcome presents a roughly even chance if the current equilibrium of buying and selling pressure holds.

Inferred from this price action, the predominant sentiment driver influencing these bond ETFs, particularly TLT and UTHY, is likely related to expectations of rising interest rates or diminishing appetite for duration risk. The consistent selling pressure on longer-term bonds indicates that market participants probably anticipate higher yields in the future or a reduced need for safe-haven assets. Conversely, the relative stability of shorter-duration bonds suggests that near-term rate expectations might be more anchored, or that there’s a lesser perceived risk in the very short end of the curve. Any shift in this sentiment, as reflected in sustained price reversals for long-duration bonds, would indicate a material change in these underlying market perceptions.

Fellow traders, we are observing a crucial 14-day period in the Treasury ETF space, encompassing TLT, UTHY, IEF, IEI, and SHY. The technical data reveals a predominant bearish sentiment across the board, although with varying degrees of intensity correlated with bond duration. The period began with broad downward pressure on October 29th across most categories, characterized by substantial red candlesticks and notably increased trading volume. Following this initial decline, prices for the longer-duration ETFs generally continued their descent or entered periods of consolidation at depressed levels, while their shorter-duration counterparts exhibited greater relative stability. We assess a high likelihood that the underlying technical weakness observed over this two-week span will continue to exert downward pressure in the immediate future, particularly for the longer-dated instruments.

TLT, representing long-term Treasury bonds, displayed the most significant technical weakness. After an initial sharp decline, prices failed to recover meaningfully, culminating in a strong bearish candlestick on November 14th, closing at the period’s low of 88.87 on notably high volume. This price action, supported by heavy selling volume on down days (e.g., November 5th, November 14th), suggests a highly likely continuation of the downtrend. Similarly, IEF, tracking 7-10 Year Treasuries, experienced a marked decline from 97.58 to 96.45. A failed attempt to rally in mid-November was decisively rejected by two large red candles on November 13th and 14th, accompanied by the highest volumes of the period. This indicates a high likelihood of IEF retesting its prior low around 96.15. UTHY, while exhibiting lower trading volumes, largely mirrored TLT’s pattern, closing at its period low of 42.01 on November 14th after a sustained downtrend, making further declines highly likely.

In contrast to their longer-duration peers, IEI (3-7 Year Treasuries) and SHY (1-3 Year Treasuries) demonstrated greater relative resilience. IEI, after an initial dip, largely consolidated within a range between approximately 119.10 and 119.79. Although attempts to break higher in early November were unsuccessful, leading to a weak close on November 14th at 119.425, we assess a roughly even chance of continued range-bound trading or a slight downward bias in the near term. A decisive break below the 119.10 support level would likely signal further declines. SHY displayed the most stability, trading within a relatively tight range mostly above 82.68. The price action on November 14th was a red candle, but it remained well within its established consolidation zone. Consequently, we anticipate a roughly even chance for SHY to persist in its current range-bound behavior, with a breakdown below 82.68 being the key indicator for potential bearish acceleration.

The consistent pattern of higher volume on down days and failed rallies across the Treasury complex, particularly in the longer durations, points to persistent selling pressure. While shorter-duration ETFs (IEI, SHY) have shown more robust price action, they have also failed to establish clear uptrends. Investors should recognize the high likelihood of continued bearish momentum in TLT, IEF, and UTHY. For IEI and SHY, the current price action suggests a roughly even chance of continued consolidation, but with an underlying weakness that makes them vulnerable to a downside break of their respective support levels, should broader market sentiment for Treasuries deteriorate further.

Magnificent 7 & Friends

The market data for the past 14 days reveals a broad landscape characterized by high volatility, with a notable shift toward bearish momentum in several key technology and growth names. While some symbols experienced significant positive excursions early in the period (e.g., AMZN’s +9.58%, NVDA’s +4.98%, AVGO’s +3.01%), the latter half of the data series indicates increased selling pressure across the board, with many stocks closing the period on negative or modestly positive notes after significant declines. This pattern suggests a loss of upward conviction and the emergence of overhead supply for many of these assets.

Several stocks exhibit clear downward momentum. CRWV, for instance, has demonstrated extreme bearishness with multiple double-digit percentage drops (e.g., -16.38% on 2025-11-11, -8.34% on 2025-11-04, -8.28% on 2025-11-13). This sustained decline suggests a continuous breakdown through implied support levels, establishing prior recovery highs as significant resistance zones. ANET similarly faced substantial pressure, notably with an -8.54% drop on 2025-11-05, and has shown only modest, unsustainable bounces since, indicating strong overhead supply. META’s -11.33% plunge on 2025-10-30 appears to have been a critical event, after which the stock has struggled to regain footing, implying substantial resistance at price levels preceding this fall. TSLA also shows high volatility with notable declines (-6.64% on 2025-11-13) and only slight recoveries, suggesting a pattern of lower highs and lower lows.

Other names, like NVDA and AMZN, experienced significant positive surges but have since seen considerable pullbacks. AMZN’s +9.58% move on 2025-10-31 was followed by a series of negative days in the most recent period, indicating that the enthusiasm from that surge is likely being met with profit-taking or selling pressure, thus forming implied resistance at its recent peaks. NVDA also saw a strong +5.79% rally on 2025-11-10, but this was immediately followed by a -2.95% drop and further declines, suggesting that while there is strong buying interest at certain lows, there is also significant selling volume preventing sustained upward movement. For these highly volatile names, implied support is likely located at the lows from which the strong bounces originated, while resistance sits at the peaks from which prices receded. AAPL and MSFT demonstrate comparatively less extreme percentage changes, suggesting a more stable but still susceptible environment, with recent price action indicating some vulnerability to the broader downward pressures.

Looking ahead, a bearish case appears likely for the immediate future, particularly for CRWV, ANET, META, and TSLA, given their sustained negative momentum and the failure of recent minor rallies to hold. Further declines could test successively lower implied support levels. A bullish case would require a significant reversal in the prevalent selling pressure, perhaps initiated by several consecutive strong positive days across multiple large-cap stocks like NVDA or AMZN, indicating a strong buying wave overcoming current implied resistance. However, based solely on the provided data, such a sustained bullish reversal is unlikely without more convincing follow-through. A neutral case has a roughly even chance, characterized by continued high volatility and choppy price action, with stocks oscillating within recently established, albeit wider, trading ranges. This indecisive environment would be driven by a persistent struggle between opportunistic buyers and sellers lacking the conviction to establish a clear trend. The aggregate technical sentiment appears to be one of increased caution and risk aversion, with a propensity for sudden downside movements.

Here is a technical analysis of the provided market data for the specified symbols over the past 14 trading days, adhering strictly to ICD-203 estimative language guidelines and focusing solely on the given technical patterns.

The market data from October 28, 2025, to November 14, 2025, primarily suggests a prevalent bearish sentiment across several major equities, particularly in the latter half of the observed period. Stocks such as META, CRWV, ANET, NVDA, TSLA, and AVGO exhibit clear patterns of lower highs and lower lows, reinforced by notable increases in trading volume during periods of price decline. This confluence of negative price action and elevated selling volume indicates that the bearish momentum is likely to persist for these symbols in the immediate short term. CRWV stands out with a particularly aggressive downtrend, marked by a massive volume spike on November 11 coinciding with a significant price drop, which suggests a high probability of continued capitulation. Similarly, META’s substantial gap down on October 30, also on extremely high volume, established a clear bearish trajectory that has largely continued, making a sustained recovery improbable without significant new buying pressure.

For stocks like AMZN and GOOGL, the observed price action indicates a strong initial rally that subsequently underwent a significant retracement. AMZN, after peaking around , has consistently posted lower closes, challenging its earlier support levels. The declining volume during this retracement might suggest some exhaustion in selling, but the pattern of lower highs and lower lows makes further downside likely to test the - support zone. GOOGL similarly experienced a powerful surge to , followed by a steady decline that has eroded a substantial portion of those gains. The probability of continued downside for GOOGL to retest the support level is moderately high, especially if current resistance around fails to hold any rallies.

In contrast, other names like MSFT and AAPL present a more mixed or consolidating picture. MSFT endured an initial downtrend but appears to have found some short-term support around the - area, with the most recent candles suggesting a potential stabilization. While a strong bullish reversal is unlikely at this juncture, there is a roughly even chance of consolidation or a modest upward retracement from these support levels. AAPL has traded within a relatively tight range, broadly from to , for much of the 14-day period. Despite a brief attempt to break higher on November 11, sustained follow-through was not observed, and trading volume remained consistent rather than showing strong directional conviction. Therefore, AAPL is likely to continue its range-bound behavior in the immediate future, with a potential test of either its support or resistance.

Considering alternative scenarios, it is plausible that some of the most heavily sold stocks, such as CRWV, META, TSLA, ANET, NVDA, and AVGO, could experience short-term relief rallies due to oversold conditions after rapid declines. For instance, the hammer-like candlestick pattern seen on the last trading day for META, NVDA, and ANET, coupled with their proximity to recent lows, could precede a minor bounce. However, these bounces would likely be counter-trend movements, and without strong accompanying buying volume and a clear change in the pattern of lower highs and lower lows, a sustained reversal of the dominant bearish trend is currently improbable. Traders should remain cautious, as any such rallies might be met with renewed selling pressure at established resistance levels, maintaining the overall bearish bias suggested by the comprehensive 14-day data.

S&P 500 Sector Breadth

The price action across the eleven S&P 500 sectors over the past 14 days primarily conveys a narrative of elevated volatility and a lack of sustained directional conviction. While individual sectors experienced significant daily swings—with some registering gains exceeding 2% and others declines of similar magnitude—these movements often reversed in subsequent sessions. For instance, XLK (Technology) displayed notable rallies followed by sharp pullbacks, creating a highly choppy pattern. Similarly, XLY (Consumer Discretionary) experienced a 2.64% gain followed by a 2.45% decline over a three-day period. This oscillating behavior suggests that the market, as represented by these key sectors, is likely in a broad consolidative or corrective phase rather than exhibiting a clear, strong trend.

Analyzing the most recent day’s performance (November 14, 2025), market breadth indicates a slight negative bias. Out of the eleven sectors, five advanced, while six declined. The advancing sectors include XLE (Energy), XLK (Technology), XLRE (Real Estate), XLU (Utilities), and XLI (Industrials). Conversely, XLP (Consumer Staples), XLY (Consumer Discretionary), XLC (Communication Services), XLV (Health Care), XLF (Financials), and XLB (Materials) experienced declines. This distribution suggests that the market breadth is unfavorable for broad upward participation, with a majority of sectors ending the day in negative territory.

Regarding sector rotation and overall market sentiment for the latest trading day, the picture is mixed. Among the offensive sectors, three advanced (XLE, XLK, XLI) while four declined (XLY, XLF, XLI, XLB, XLC). For defensive sectors, two advanced (XLRE, XLU) and two declined (XLP, XLV). The fact that more offensive sectors declined than advanced (four offensive decliners versus three offensive advancers) is a notable observation. This pattern makes a clear indication of a strong market rotation into either offensive or defensive postures somewhat ambiguous. While there is no definitive shift towards defensive sectors, the relative underperformance of a greater number of offensive sectors suggests a roughly even chance of continued caution, rather than robust risk-on sentiment prevailing in the immediate term.

Below is a matrix of each symbol and its daily percent change value for November 14, 2025, sorted in descending order:

Technical Market Commentary: Sector Divergence Observed Over 14-Day Period

The provided 14-day market data for various sector ETFs reveals a notable divergence in performance, indicating a lack of uniform directional momentum across the market. While certain sectors like Health Care (XLV) and Energy (XLE) have demonstrated robust bullish trends, others, notably Technology (XLK), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Industrials (XLI), and Communication Services (XLC), exhibit clear bearish pressure, evidenced by lower highs and lower lows often accompanied by increasing volume. This fragmentation suggests that capital flows are likely highly selective, favoring defensive or commodity-oriented areas over growth and cyclical sectors. The prevailing sentiment appears to be one of caution, with significant downside momentum in several key indices potentially influencing overall market stability.

Health Care (XLV) has displayed strong bullish momentum, advancing from approximately .45 to recent highs near .80. This upward trajectory is supported by consistent higher highs and higher lows, with notable volume spikes accompanying key upward moves, particularly from November 11-13. A continuation of this trend is likely, provided the price maintains above the level. Similarly, Energy (XLE) has sustained a robust uptrend, climbing from around .36 to .01, consistently making higher highs and higher lows. Elevated volume on significant up days, such as November 7, 10, 11, and 14, reinforces the conviction behind this upward movement. A further advance in XLE appears likely, with initial support potentially around the .82-.07 range. For both XLV and XLE, a significant break below established swing lows would constitute a change in the prevailing bullish outlook, but such a scenario is currently unlikely based on the recent price action.

Conversely, Technology (XLK) has experienced a distinct downtrend, falling from approximately .13 to .19. This decline is characterized by a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, accompanied by increased volume on several down days (e.g., Nov 6, 7, 13, 14), indicating persistent selling pressure. Further downside is likely if the recent support near fails to hold. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) shows an even more pronounced bearish trajectory, dropping sharply from .14 to .93. The accelerated decline on November 13 and 14, coupled with rising volume, suggests a high probability of continued weakness. Industrials (XLI) and Communication Services (XLC) also present bearish patterns, with XLI struggling to maintain recovery efforts above and XLC consistently forming lower highs and lows from to . The confluence of these factors makes a bearish continuation for these sectors likely in the near term. A consolidation or bounce back to prior resistance levels would constitute an alternative, but currently less likely, scenario.

Several other sectors exhibit mixed or consolidating performance. Consumer Staples (XLP) initially declined but has since attempted a recovery, settling into a range roughly between .61 and .41. A breakout above .50 would make further upward movement likely, while a fall below .00 would suggest a return to bearish pressure, offering a roughly even chance between these two outcomes in the near term. Utilities (XLU) have traded largely sideways within a range of approximately to after an initial dip. Real Estate (XLRE) also appears range-bound after an early downtrend, struggling to break above .30. Financials (XLF) showed some recovery but recently pulled back from resistance near .67. Materials (XLB) also recovered from a low but has seen recent selling pressure. For these sectors, a sustained directional move is uncertain; a period of continued consolidation appears more likely than an immediate strong trend, unless a clear break of established range boundaries occurs on elevated volume.

XLY vs XLP

The RATIO:XLY/XLP has exhibited a discernible downward trend over the observed 14-day period, commencing from a peak ratio early in the dataset. While the aggregated trend summary explicitly characterizes this as a “down” direction, the specified “weak” strength suggests a lack of strong conviction behind the depreciation. The ratio began around 3.0746, experienced an initial rally to establish a period high of 3.1994 on November 3rd, before systematically declining. The current ratio stands at 2.9890, marking the lowest point within this 14-day observation window, placing it at a relative position of zero for the period.

Analyzing the price action in more detail, the initial upward movement from October 28th to November 3rd, peaking at 3.1994, suggests an early period where Consumer Discretionary (XLY) was outperforming Consumer Staples (XLP). However, this was followed by a consistent series of lower highs and lower lows, indicating a clear shift in momentum. Notable levels where the ratio failed to find sustained support include the areas around 3.17, 3.12, and 3.07. The most recent activity shows the ratio breaking below the significant psychological level of 3.00, settling at 2.9890 on the last day, which could imply a breakdown of short-term support.

The stated “weak” trend strength, coupled with very low volatility (0.003286), offers critical context. While the trend is undeniably downward, the lack of strong momentum suggests that the selling pressure or shift away from discretionary stocks is not particularly aggressive. This implies that a rapid acceleration of the downtrend is unlikely without a significant increase in volatility. An alternative scenario is that the weak selling pressure might lead to the ratio finding support around its current low, potentially setting the stage for a period of consolidation or a minor technical rebound, as the conviction for further decline appears limited based on the weak strength metric.

Considering the technical posture, the ratio’s closing at its 14-day low points to immediate downside pressure. It is likely that the ratio will attempt to test levels below 2.9890 in the very near term, should the current weak momentum persist. However, the identified weak strength and low volatility suggest that a sustained, sharp decline is less likely than a more gradual depreciation or a period of range-bound trading near the recent lows. A move back above the 3.00 level would likely indicate a stabilization or a potential for a minor bounce, but such a reversal currently appears to have a roughly even chance against continued slight downward drift, given the overall weak bearish trend.

As a seasoned Chartered Market Technician, I’ve analyzed the provided 90-day market data for the XLY/XLP ratio (Consumer Discretionary vs. Consumer Staples) to identify prevailing trends, key technical levels, and potential future movements. The dataset clearly indicates a persistent, moderate upward trend for the ratio over this period, reflecting a general outperformance of growth-oriented consumer discretionary stocks relative to their more defensive consumer staples counterparts. The ratio has appreciated by approximately 9.52% from its start in early July, demonstrating a consistent preference among market participants for sectors associated with economic expansion.

Throughout the 90-day window, the XLY/XLP ratio established a significant low of 2.6957 on August 1st, which served as a robust support level from which the subsequent upward trajectory largely began. The ratio ascended to a dataset high of 3.1994 on November 3rd, marking a clear resistance point. Following this peak, the ratio entered a notable corrective phase, retreating to its most recent value of 2.9890. This approximately 6.5% pullback from the high is a critical technical development. While the ratio remains above its 90-day average of 2.9209, reinforcing the overall bullish bias, its deviation from the recent high warrants close examination.

The current pullback from the November 3rd peak suggests that the ratio is undergoing consolidation within its established uptrend. An immediate area of technical interest for potential support lies around the 2.91-2.93 range, aligning closely with the 90-day average and prior resistance levels from early September. A bounce from this region would be a constructive sign for the continuation of the broader uptrend. Given the moderate strength of the overall upward trend, a return to an upward trajectory after this period of consolidation is likely (greater than 60% chance). Should this support zone hold, a retest of the 3.1994 resistance level would become a probable (greater than 60% chance) short-term objective.

However, alternative scenarios must be considered. A decisive breach below the 2.91-2.93 average support, followed by a failure to hold the prior breakout level around 2.85 (observed in late August), would strongly imply a deeper correction or, potentially, a shift in trend. A decline below the initial low of 2.6957 is unlikely (less than 40% chance) given the established upward momentum and would invalidate the current bullish thesis. For now, the technical evidence suggests that the recent retreat is more likely (greater than 60% chance) a temporary retracement within a larger bullish structure, offering potential entry points for those anticipating a continuation of XLY’s outperformance against XLP.

Equity Breadth

The percentage of S&P 500 members trading above their 50-day Moving Average (SPXA50R) over the past 14 days initially suggested a weakening short-term breadth. Commencing at approximately 48.5%, the indicator experienced a notable decline, reaching a low of roughly 37.7% on November 3rd. This period likely signaled increased short-term selling pressure impacting a significant portion of the index components. Subsequently, SPXA50R embarked on a rally, regaining strength to peak at approximately 51.4% on November 12th. This rebound indicated a temporary alleviation of selling pressure and a revitalization of short-term momentum. However, the latest data shows a retracement to roughly 42.4% by November 14th. This recent decline likely implies that the attempted short-term recovery lacked sustained conviction, with a majority of S&P 500 components now struggling below their 50-day MAs once more.

Examining the percentage of S&P 500 members above their 200-day Moving Average (SPXA200R) provides insight into the longer-term market breadth. The data began at approximately 57.1%, indicating robust long-term participation. A period of erosion followed, with the indicator declining to a low of roughly 48.5% on November 6th. This brief dip below the 50% threshold likely introduced a degree of concern regarding broad market health, as it suggested that a minority of stocks were supporting the longer-term trend. However, SPXA200R demonstrated resilience, recovering effectively to approximately 56.8% by November 12th, nearing its initial high. The indicator concluded the period at roughly 52.8%. This recovery likely suggests underlying structural strength in the long-term trend for a substantial portion of the index, despite the brief period of weakness.

The price action over the 14-day period tells a story of divergence between short-term and long-term market breadth. The SPXA50R’s journey, characterized by a sharp decline, a volatile recovery above 50%, and then another retreat, points to a generally struggling short-term trend. The repeated failure to sustain levels above 50% for more than a few days suggests that the short-term uptrends among individual S&P 500 components are fragile. Conversely, the SPXA200R, while experiencing a dip, recovered above its 50% level and maintained it, suggesting that the longer-term structural uptrend remains intact for a majority of constituents. It is likely that the broader market, while experiencing short-term turbulence, retains foundational support from its longer-term trending components. The overall trend can be characterized as a consolidating long-term uptrend currently experiencing significant short-term indecision and weakness.

The current divergence between the declining short-term breadth (SPXA50R) and the relatively stable long-term breadth (SPXA200R) is noteworthy. A sustained decline in SPXA50R below 50% makes it likely that the broader S&P 500 index could face increased downward pressure or consolidation in the near term, as fewer components are participating in short-term rallies. An alternative scenario would involve SPXA50R reversing its recent decline and moving decisively back above 50%, which would unlikely happen without a significant shift in market sentiment or price action for individual stocks. For SPXA200R, maintaining levels above 50% is likely to continue providing a floor for the market on significant pullbacks, indicating that underlying long-term support remains. However, a significant and sustained drop in SPXA200R below 50% would signal a broad erosion of the long-term uptrend, a scenario that, based on the recent recovery, appears to have a roughly even chance of occurring if the current selling pressure intensifies over an extended period.

SPY 180 Days

SPY’s price action over the last 180 days reveals a significant market shift from a sharp correction into a robust uptrend, followed by a recent period of volatility. The period began with SPY trading around 594.18 in late February, followed by a precipitous decline through March into early April. During this intense bearish phase, price decisively broke below both the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 200-day EMA. The RSI plunged into deeply oversold territory, reaching lows around 21-23, coincident with extremely high trading volumes (e.g., over 200 million shares on April 4th and 7th), which strongly suggests capitulation selling. A notable reversal occurred on April 9th, where SPY bounced aggressively from the 493 level to 548, marking a probable short-term bottom and initiating the recovery phase.

Following the April low, SPY established a clear and sustained bullish trend from May through late September. The price consistently traded above both the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, which themselves were rising and maintained a bullish configuration (50-day EMA above 200-day EMA), confirming strong upward momentum. The RSI largely remained in the bullish territory, frequently entering overbought conditions (e.g., in July, peaking at 75.58) but generally consolidating rather than reversing abruptly. During this period, a significant support zone formed between approximately 630-635, which effectively stemmed several pullbacks in July and August. The sustained uptrend culminated in new highs around the 665-672 region in late September and early October.

The market narrative shifted in early October, beginning with a notable decline on October 10th. Price experienced a significant drop, closing at 653.02, which breached the ascending 50-day EMA (then around 651.46) on elevated volume (156 million shares). This suggests a material weakening of the immediate bullish momentum. Subsequent price action through late October showed attempts to rally, but SPY struggled to maintain positions above the 50-day EMA, and registered an ultimate peak near 689.70 before another sharp decline. The 678-689 range now functions as a key resistance zone. More recently, SPY has rebounded above the current 50-day EMA of 666.67, with its latest close at 671.94, but the RSI is near neutral territory at 48.17, indicating a lack of strong directional conviction. The 653 level, representing the October 10th low, is an immediate technical support.

Looking forward, several scenarios are plausible. A bullish case would likely involve SPY holding above its 50-day EMA and breaking convincingly above the 689 resistance level, ideally on increasing volume, with the RSI moving back into the 60-70 range. The current position above the 50-day EMA is a positive technical development. Conversely, a bearish case would entail a failure to maintain price above the 50-day EMA, leading to a decisive breakdown below the 653 support, particularly if accompanied by high volume. Such a move would probably target the ascending 200-day EMA, currently at 624.51. A neutral case appears to be a roughly even chance, characterized by continued consolidation within the 653-689 range, with the price oscillating around the 50-day EMA and the RSI remaining near its centerline, reflecting ongoing market indecision without strong directional drivers emerging from the technical data.

SPY Technical Analysis: Intermediate-Term Bullish Trend Faces Short-Term Consolidation

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has demonstrated a significant shift in its price trajectory over the past 180 days. Initially, from late February to early April, SPY experienced a notable downtrend, declining from approximately to a low of on April 7. This period of weakness was robustly confirmed by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which consistently remained in bearish territory, dropping to extreme oversold levels around 21.47 on April 8. This strong bearish momentum eventually exhausted, paving the way for a substantial recovery.

Following the April lows, SPY initiated a powerful intermediate-term uptrend, marked by a consistent pattern of higher highs and higher lows. This bullish phase extended throughout May, June, July, August, and into late October, with the price successfully breaking above its prior February high by mid-June. The strength of this uptrend was validated by the 14-day RSI, which predominantly traded above the 50-level and frequently entered the overbought zone (above 70). Notable overbought readings occurred in late May, late June, and late July, often preceding minor, healthy consolidations rather than significant reversals, indicating persistent buying pressure.

The most recent price action suggests a potential near-term shift in momentum. SPY reached a new all-time high of approximately .70 on October 29. Since this peak, the price has entered a pullback phase, testing the - area as support, with the latest closing price at .94 on November 14. Concurrently, the 14-day RSI has receded from near 70 down to 48.17. While not yet in oversold territory, the RSI’s breach below the 50-level indicates a waning of short-term bullish impetus, suggesting the immediate upward acceleration has likely paused. No clear bullish or bearish divergence is apparent at the most recent high.

Based on the available technical data, there is a roughly even chance that SPY will experience further consolidation or a shallow retracement in the immediate future. The critical overhead resistance is established at the recent high of .70. Conversely, the - range represents the immediate support level. A sustained break below this support, especially if accompanied by the RSI falling into oversold territory, would make a deeper pullback towards the intermediate support around - likely. Should SPY rebound decisively from current levels, pushing above .70 with the RSI returning to the bullish zone (above 50) and potentially into overbought conditions, a continuation of the established intermediate-term uptrend and the possibility of new all-time highs would be likely. As of now, market participants should anticipate continued volatility within this range, with reduced bullish conviction immediately following the late October price peak.