Weekly Market Technical Analysis

Market Overview

Despite monthly gains across major equity indices and broad bullishness in commodities, recent technical analysis reveals a shift towards short-term weakness. Equities, including SPX and QQQ, show receding RSI from overbought conditions and decelerating PPO momentum, indicating that a period of consolidation or minor pullback is likely. Market breadth indicators also highlight declining underlying participation for the S&P 500, suggesting a reduced conviction in the current rally. Simultaneously, bond markets experienced widespread declines over the past week, making continued downward pressure very likely for short-to-mid duration assets. While silver continues its strong outperformance, a general cautious outlook is suggested due to decelerating momentum across multiple equity segments and prevalent weekly market weakness. Investors should prioritize vigilance for further shifts in market breadth and key support levels.

Market Indices

CMT Market Commentary: September 26, 2025

Market Performance Overview

Our analysis of the provided market data for the past month and week reveals distinct directional biases across key equity indices. Over the past 30 trading days (roughly a month), all six major indices (IJR, IWM, MDY, SPX, OEF, QQQ) recorded positive aggregate percentage changes, indicating an overall upward trend. The Russell 2000 (IWM) notably outperformed with a gain of +2.46%, followed by the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) at +1.35%, and the S&P 500 (SPX) at +1.05%. The S&P 500 Large Cap (OEF) and S&P MidCap 400 (MDY) also posted positive returns of +1.01% and +0.81% respectively, with the S&P SmallCap 600 (IJR) showing the smallest gain at +0.54%. This suggests a period of broad market appreciation on a monthly horizon.

Conversely, the most recent trading week (the last five trading days ending 2025-09-26) presented a universally negative picture for these indices. All symbols registered declines, with weekly percentage changes ranging from -0.30% for SPX to -0.66% for IWM. The following table summarizes the weekly performance, sorted in descending order:

Market Breadth and Underlying Dynamics

Examining market breadth provides further insight into the underlying strength or weakness. Over the full 30-day period, market breadth appears neutral, with an equal number of advancing and declining daily observations across the six symbols (90 advancing days vs. 90 declining days). This roughly even distribution suggests a period of balanced supply and demand dynamics, despite the net positive performance. It is plausible that strong rallies on fewer days compensated for more numerous, but smaller, declines. However, the short-term picture, specifically the last five trading days, indicates a deteriorating breadth. We observe a clear tilt towards declining days (19) compared to advancing days (11) across the selected indices. This shift from balanced monthly breadth to predominantly negative weekly breadth is concerning and likely indicates a broadening of selling pressure.

Volatility Index (VIX) Analysis

The VIX, a measure of implied market volatility, closed the 30-day period slightly higher than its open, moving from 15.09 to 15.29. Over the entire month, the VIX experienced significant fluctuations, including a notable spike to an intraday high of 19.38 on 2025-09-02, corresponding with a high close of 17.17. Such spikes typically accompany periods of increased market uncertainty or sell-offs in underlying equities. Interestingly, the aggregate daily percentage change for the VIX over the full 30-day period was positive (+12.02%), reinforcing the notion of increased volatility within the month. For the most recent week, the VIX recorded a marginal aggregate decline of -0.40%, despite the observed equity index declines. This divergence is unusual; typically, a weakening equity market would see the VIX rising. It is unlikely that this weekly VIX behavior signals a sustained easing of market fear. Rather, given the broad equity declines, the VIX’s slight weekly dip might be interpreted as a temporary consolidation or a ‘dead cat bounce’ in equities, which could precede further volatility.

Conclusion and Alternative Scenarios

The technical data presents a mixed yet discernible short-term shift. While the monthly trend for major equity indices has been broadly positive, the most recent week has seen a widespread pullback accompanied by negative breadth. The relatively flat VIX in the face of weekly equity declines is an anomaly; a more sustained market downtrend would likely see the VIX move sharply higher. We assess that the market is in a phase of short-term weakness, as evidenced by the widespread declines and negative breadth over the past week. There is a roughly even chance that the market is entering a period of consolidation, or alternatively, a moderate probability that this recent weakness could extend further if the negative breadth persists and the VIX begins to reflect increased fear more acutely. Investors should remain vigilant for further shifts in market breadth and volatility indicators, as the current technical posture suggests a cautious outlook in the immediate term, despite the prior monthly gains.

As a Chartered Market Technician with over 15 years of experience, my analysis of the provided 7-day market data for SPY, QQQ, IWM, IJR, MDY, and OEF indicates a mixed picture, characterized by a mid-week dip followed by a partial rebound. The overall sentiment for the period spanning September 18th to September 26th, 2025, suggests short-term volatility, with differing performances across market capitalization segments.

The large-cap indices, SPY (S&P 500 ETF), QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF), and OEF (S&P 100 ETF), exhibited relative resilience over the full 7-day period. QQQ, after peaking at 602.20 on September 22nd, experienced a decline to a low of 588.50 on September 25th, before recovering to close at 595.97 on September 26th, marginally higher than its September 18th close of 595.32. SPY and OEF followed a similar pattern of an early-week high, a dip on September 25th, and a Friday recovery, ultimately finishing slightly below their starting points for the week. The decline on September 25th for these large-cap indices occurred on notably increased volume, which often signals heightened selling pressure or potential capitulation. However, the subsequent rebound on September 26th, characterized by a higher close on slightly reduced volume, suggests a potential short-term stabilization or re-emergence of buying interest.

In contrast, the small-cap (IWM, IJR) and mid-cap (MDY) indices displayed more pronounced weakness throughout the period. IWM, representing the Russell 2000, declined from a high of 244.84 on September 18th to close at 241.34 on September 26th, representing a net loss. Similarly, IJR (S&P SmallCap 600) and MDY (S&P MidCap 400) experienced clear downtrends for the week, culminating in net losses despite Friday’s modest recovery. A notable technical observation for these indices is the consistent decline in trading volume throughout the week, even as prices were falling. This divergence suggests a potential lack of broad conviction behind the selling pressure, but also indicates reduced investor interest in these segments during the downturn.

From a short-term perspective, the price action on September 25th and 26th for most indices warrants close attention. A significant dip on the 25th, followed by a positive reversal candle on the 26th (opening higher than the previous close and closing higher), collectively suggests a potential exhaustion of immediate selling pressure. Given this pattern across multiple key indices, it is likely that short-term momentum has shifted to the upside for the very immediate next trading session, potentially leading to a continuation of Friday’s bounce.

However, considering the limited 7-day data window and the overall net decline in the small and mid-cap segments, it is roughly even chance that this rebound will translate into a sustained rally. The divergence in performance, with large caps holding relatively flat while smaller capitalization segments showed clearer weakness, suggests underlying market breadth concerns. An alternative scenario, where prices consolidate or re-test the September 25th lows early next week, is a realistic possibility. For any sustained upward movement to manifest, an increase in buying volume on subsequent rally attempts, particularly in the underperforming small and mid-cap segments, is likely to be required to confirm broader market conviction. Without such confirmation, a continuation of range-bound trading or a re-test of recent support levels is likely in the near term.

The SPX has exhibited a robust intermediate-term uptrend over the past 90 trading days, advancing significantly from approximately 5800 in late May to current levels around 6640. This trajectory is defined by consistent higher highs and higher lows, indicative of strong buying interest. A significant rally dominated late June and July, propelling the index to a peak near 6400. After a sharp correction on August 1, dropping from 6339 to 6238, the SPX resumed its ascent, eventually establishing an all-time high of 6699.52 on September 23. The period immediately following this peak saw three consecutive down days, signaling potential profit-taking or temporary exhaustion. The most recent session on September 26 closed higher at 6643.70, recovering from an intraday dip, which suggests immediate support in the 6600-6620 range might be holding.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) largely corroborated the bullish sentiment. The RSI frequently entered overbought territory (above 70) during strong rallies, peaking at 76.21 on July 25 and 74.75 on September 22, both coinciding with local price highs. The sharp August 1 price decline was mirrored by an RSI plunge to 47.80, confirming a significant loss of short-term upward momentum. Similarly, the latest rally’s peak saw the RSI decline rapidly to 58.73 by September 25, followed by a slight rebound to 62.78. This behavior suggests a cooling of market enthusiasm from its overextended condition. A sustained move below 50 on the RSI would indicate a more decisive bearish shift in short-term momentum.

The 13-21-day Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) offers further insight into underlying trend strength. The PPO remained positive throughout most of the period, affirming the bullish intermediate-term trend. A notable period of declining PPO values in early August, despite price consolidation, hinted at weakening underlying momentum. While the PPO did not turn negative, it suggested diminished bullish enthusiasm. September brought a sharp PPO rally, confirming renewed momentum, peaking at 0.635 on September 22 in conjunction with price highs. The subsequent swift drop to 0.530 on September 26, mirroring the RSI, points to a significant deceleration of this positive momentum. Maintenance of the PPO above zero supports a bullish intermediate-term outlook, but the recent sharp decline necessitates vigilant monitoring for potential bearish crossovers.

Considering the combined technical evidence, it is likely the SPX will experience a period of consolidation or a minor pullback in the immediate short term. The recent sharp declines in both RSI and PPO from elevated levels, despite the overarching uptrend, suggest a temporary exhaustion of buying pressure. Prices remain well above implied significant support levels. An alternative scenario, with a roughly even chance, is for the SPX to find immediate support around the 6600-6620 zone and attempt to retest the recent highs near 6700, especially if the bullish recovery on September 26 signifies renewed strength. A definitive break below 6600 would increase the probability of a deeper corrective move towards the 6500-6450 area.

QQQ Technical Analysis: Navigating Recent Momentum Shifts

Over the past 90 days, QQQ has been characterized by a robust upward trend, evidenced by a sustained ascent from the low in late May to recent highs exceeding in mid-September. This upward trajectory saw several periods of strong conviction, often accompanied by indicators signaling overextended conditions. The rally from late August through mid-September was particularly notable, culminating in a price peak around .87 on September 22nd. However, the most recent trading days suggest a shift in short-term dynamics. The price has experienced a discernible pullback, with closing prices declining from .20 on September 22nd to .97 by September 26th. Notably, this recent downturn has been accompanied by a pattern of increasing volume on down days, particularly on September 25th with over 70 million shares traded, a feature that typically suggests greater conviction in selling pressure during a price decline.

Analysis of the momentum indicators corroborates this recent shift. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached a significantly overbought level of 75.35 on September 22nd, indicating that QQQ was trading at an extreme relative to its recent performance. Subsequent to this peak, the RSI has rapidly retreated, falling to 63.73 by September 26th. While still above the neutral 50-mark and not approaching oversold territory, the sharp decline from such elevated levels strongly suggests a significant reduction in immediate buying enthusiasm and an increase in selling interest. Concurrently, the 13-21 day Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO), which measures momentum, peaked around 0.812 on September 23rd, affirming the strong upward momentum prior to the current pullback. The PPO has since declined to 0.711 on September 26th. Although the PPO remains in positive territory, signaling that the broader trend likely remains bullish, the deceleration from its peak provides further evidence that the vigorous upward momentum has at least temporarily waned.

Given the confluence of a multi-day price pullback from extreme highs, declining RSI from overbought levels, and a decelerating but still positive PPO, it is likely that QQQ is undergoing a healthy, albeit sharp, short-term correction. The recent spike in selling volume during the decline lends credence to this corrective phase. Previous reaction lows or consolidation areas could serve as potential support zones; specifically, the price range around - observed in late August, and a more significant prior support level near from the early August decline, could become relevant if the correction deepens. The fact that the PPO remains positive suggests that a full trend reversal is unlikely at this juncture. However, should the RSI continue its descent, potentially toward the 50-mark or below, and the PPO cross below its centerline, it would indicate a more significant bearish shift, increasing the probability of a deeper retracement. For the immediate future, market participants will probably monitor if QQQ stabilizes above these potential support areas or if bearish momentum accelerates.

IWM Technical Analysis: Navigating Recent Momentum Shifts

IWM has demonstrated a robust upward trend throughout the 90-day period under review, escalating from approximately - in late May to establish a new high of .57 on September 19. This significant price appreciation was characterized by strong rallies, periodically interspersed with constructive consolidations. Notably, the price successfully overcame a prior resistance area around the - level encountered in July, validating the underlying bullish sentiment. However, since the September 19 peak, IWM has experienced a modest retracement, closing at .34 at the end of the provided data. This recent deceleration in price action suggests that the immediate bullish impulse may be waning, giving way to short-term consolidation or corrective behavior.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) largely corroborated the bullish narrative, frequently reflecting strong buying pressure. The indicator ascended into overbought territory (above 70) on two distinct occasions: reaching 71.57 in early July and then 71.23 on September 18. Each instance coincided with subsequent price pullbacks, underscoring the tendency for short-term corrections after extended rallies. Following its most recent overbought reading, the RSI has retreated to 58.81 as of September 26. While still residing in the bullish half of its range (above 50), this decline from extreme levels indicates a clear reduction in the immediate upward momentum, aligning with the recent price consolidation.

Further supporting this observation is the behavior of the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO). The PPO maintained a positive posture for most of the period, consistently reaffirming the prevailing uptrend. A notable period of momentum deceleration occurred in early August, where the PPO declined to a low of 0.08 on August 11. Crucially, it remained above the zero line, indicating that while bullish momentum weakened, the overall trend structure was not decisively broken. Following this, the PPO exhibited a strong resurgence through August and early September, peaking at 1.003 on September 23. However, similar to the RSI, the PPO has since seen a decline, now registering 0.779. This recent downtick, while still positive, signals a diminishing rate of ascent, further confirming the shift in short-term momentum.

Based strictly on the provided technical data, the near-term outlook for IWM suggests a period of caution. The combination of RSI retreating from overbought conditions and the PPO showing a clear decline from its recent peak indicates weakening bullish momentum. It is likely that IWM will experience continued consolidation or a further modest pullback in the immediate future. Given the strong underlying trend established over the 90-day window, a significant breakdown below established support levels is unlikely at this juncture unless further sustained weakening in momentum indicators is observed. Traders should consider a roughly even chance of either stabilization around current price levels or a retracement towards previous areas of consolidation, such as the - range. A renewed upward push would likely require both the RSI and PPO to reverse their recent trajectories and demonstrate renewed conviction.

Tech Sector Analysis

Here is a technical analysis of the QQQ/SPY ratio, focusing on recent relative performance and probability-based assessments.

The QQQ/SPY ratio, observed over the 90-day period, indicates a discernible upward trend, suggesting a general outperformance of the technology-heavy NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) against the broader S&P 500 (SPY). The provided data explicitly notes a “direction: up” for the overall trend, with a total change of approximately 2.61% from the lowest ratio of 0.87757 on May 20th to the current ratio of 0.90050 on September 26th. However, the accompanying “strength: weak” assessment for this 90-day trend suggests that while QQQ has generally gained ground on SPY, the momentum behind this outperformance has been subdued. The relatively low volatility figure (0.0000378) further underscores a gradual, rather than explosive, ascent.

Zooming into the monthly performance, from August 26th (ratio 0.887547) to September 26th (ratio 0.900501), the QQQ/SPY ratio has increased by approximately 1.46%. This indicates a continuation of QQQ’s outperformance against SPY over the past month. Within this period, the ratio experienced a notable climb, reaching its 90-day high of 0.903065 on September 22nd. This suggests that the upward trajectory has been relatively consistent during the last month, contributing significantly to the overall 90-day gain. The current ratio stands at the upper end of its 90-day range, with a relative position of 0.8994, reinforcing the recent strength.

However, a closer examination of the past week’s data reveals a potential short-term shift in momentum. From September 19th (ratio 0.903043) to September 26th (ratio 0.900501), the ratio has seen a slight decline of approximately 0.28%. Following the peak on September 22nd, the ratio has consistently registered lower closing values for the past four trading days, including the most recent close. This short-term pullback could represent profit-taking or a period of consolidation after reaching a significant high. While minimal in magnitude, this short-term underperformance suggests that the immediate upward pressure observed over the monthly period has eased.

Given the overall weak but persistent upward trend over 90 days, supported by solid monthly outperformance, but juxtaposed with a distinct short-term pullback over the past week, it is roughly an even chance that QQQ will continue its weak outperformance against SPY in the immediate future. The ratio currently sits just below its recent 90-day high, which could act as minor resistance. A decisive move above the September 22nd peak of 0.903065 would render it likely that QQQ resumes a more pronounced outperformance. Conversely, should the ratio break below a recent minor support level, such as the 0.89500 area observed mid-September, it would become likely that QQQ experiences a period of underperformance or stronger consolidation relative to SPY. The weak strength of the underlying 90-day trend implies that any significant continuation or reversal might lack robust momentum.

CMT Market Commentary: QQQ/SPY Relative Strength Analysis (90-Day)

Overall Trend and Market Posture

The 90-day analysis of the QQQ/SPY ratio reveals a clear underlying trend of outperformance by the Nasdaq 100-tracking ETF (QQQ) relative to the S&P 500-tracking ETF (SPY). Over this period, the ratio has advanced approximately 2.61%, moving from a low of 0.87757 to its current level near 0.90050. This persistent upward trajectory strongly suggests a sustained preference for growth-oriented or technology-heavy sectors represented by QQQ. The observed trend.strength is described as “weak,” which is somewhat counterintuitive given the consistent upward movement and new highs. This might imply that while the direction is clear, the rate of change has been relatively modest or has decelerated at times, characteristic of a grind higher rather than an explosive surge. Given the sustained upward movement over three months, it is highly likely that QQQ will continue to demonstrate relative strength against SPY in the immediate future, assuming the established trend persists.

Key Technical Levels and Recent Action

Throughout the 90-day period, the ratio has demonstrated a stair-step pattern, progressively establishing higher lows and higher highs. Early in the period, the ratio consolidated around the 0.880-0.885 level before a significant upward breakout in early June, pushing towards 0.892. A more pronounced upward thrust occurred in early August, propelling the ratio above the 0.90 psychological mark, reaching an initial peak around 0.9025 on August 12th. This peak subsequently acted as a resistance point, leading to a notable retracement to approximately 0.886 by August 21st. This area of prior congestion and former resistance around 0.885-0.890 appears to have transitioned into a robust support zone during subsequent pullbacks, confirming the health of the uptrend.

Current Short-Term Dynamics and Resistance

Following the mid-August pullback, the ratio resumed its upward climb with renewed momentum, establishing a new 90-day high of 0.90306 on September 22nd. The market data shows the ratio closing slightly lower at 0.90050 on September 26th, indicating a minor pullback from this peak. This retracement from the recent high is likely due to short-term profit-taking or an encounter with overhead supply near the 0.903 resistance level. The low volatility recorded suggests that these movements have generally been orderly, lacking sharp, impulsive corrections. The current position of the ratio, at 0.89943 relative to its 90-day range, places it near the upper bound, implying that the bullish relative strength thesis remains intact.

Outlook and Alternative Scenarios

The most likely scenario in the near term is that the ratio will continue to consolidate or attempt to retest the 0.903 resistance level. A decisive break and close above 0.903 would establish a new higher high and make it highly probable for QQQ to extend its outperformance against SPY. Should the 0.903 resistance prove formidable, a period of sideways consolidation or a minor deeper pullback towards the 0.895-0.898 range is a roughly even chance outcome. A more significant retreat, breaking below the prior intermediate support around 0.890-0.885, appears unlikely based on the consistent upward momentum and higher low structure observed over the past 90 days. Such a breakdown would, however, challenge the current relative strength trend and would warrant re-evaluation. For now, the technical evidence continues to favor QQQ outperformance.

IWM vs. SPY

As a Chartered Market Technician with over 15 years of experience, this analysis examines the RATIO:IWM/SPY:90days data to evaluate the relative performance between the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) over the specified period ending on 2025-09-26. The provided technical data indicates a prevailing “moderate up” trend for the IWM/SPY ratio over the full 90-day duration, reflecting IWM’s relative outperformance against SPY. This long-term trend has seen the ratio increase by approximately 3.4%, moving from a 90-day low of 0.345686 to its current level of 0.364661. The current ratio is positioned relatively high within its 90-day range, specifically at 79% of the way from the low to the high, and remains above the 90-day average ratio of 0.355576.

Focusing on the monthly relative performance, from 2025-08-26 with a ratio of 0.3631347 to 2025-09-26 closing at 0.3646611, the IWM/SPY ratio recorded a marginal increase. This indicates a slight relative outperformance of IWM against SPY over the past month. The overall momentum, however, appears to have moderated compared to the broader 90-day expansion. Given the modest positive change, it is likely that IWM maintained a slight relative strength over this monthly period, consistent with the overarching uptrend but at a slower pace.

Examining the most recent trading week, from 2025-09-22 at a ratio of 0.3664897 to 2025-09-26 closing at 0.3646611, the IWM/SPY ratio experienced a decline. This short-term movement signifies a technical underperformance of IWM relative to SPY during the past five trading days. This recent shift contrasts with the longer-term outperformance, signaling a potential near-term reversal in relative strength. Based on these immediate price actions, it is likely that SPY has exhibited renewed relative strength against IWM over the last trading week.

Synthesizing these observations, the technical analysis reveals a divergence between the established moderate 90-day uptrend and the recent weekly performance. While the IWM/SPY ratio remains firmly in an uptrend on a longer horizon, trading near the upper end of its 90-day range, the immediate short-term action points to IWM’s relative underperformance. Given the underlying moderate uptrend and the current relative position above the 90-day average, it is likely that the IWM/SPY ratio will find support and remain broadly elevated in the near term.

Considering potential future scenarios, a re-establishment of IWM’s outperformance, aligning with the broader 90-day trend, is likely. This scenario would involve the ratio resuming its upward trajectory and possibly challenging the 90-day high of 0.369704. Conversely, should the recent weekly underperformance extend, indicating a more significant shift in relative strength, it is unlikely that the ratio would sustain its current position near the upper end of its 90-day range. In this alternative scenario, technicians would monitor for a more pronounced move towards the 90-day average ratio of 0.355576, potentially signaling a deceleration or reversal of the moderate uptrend. The observed low volatility over the 90-day period suggests that any directional shifts, if sustained, could become significant technical signals.

As a CMT with extensive experience, my analysis of the IWM/SPY ratio over the past 90 days, based strictly on the provided technical data, reveals a consistent trend of small-cap outperformance against large-caps. The ratio initiated at approximately 0.3527 in late May and has since demonstrated a moderate upward trajectory, concluding at 0.3647 as of September 26th. This translates to a 3.4% increase over the period, firmly establishing the “up” trend direction and “moderate” strength, as highlighted in the data summary. The current ratio is positioned significantly above its 90-day average of 0.3556, sitting at the 79th percentile of its observed range, which suggests a likely continuation of this relative strength.

Reviewing the price action, the ratio exhibited an initial period of slight weakness or consolidation in late May to early June, where it found a base around 0.3470-0.3485. Following this, a sustained uptrend began, although it was punctuated by a more significant pullback from late July through early August, establishing the 90-day low at approximately 0.3457. This dip was quickly recovered, leading to a renewed and more robust ascent that formed distinct higher lows and higher highs. The most recent peak for the ratio was observed at 0.3697 on September 18th, which now likely represents an immediate resistance level for future moves.

In the short-term, the ratio has experienced a minor retracement from its September 18th high but remains well-supported above its early September levels. This pattern suggests that the underlying bullish momentum for IWM’s relative performance against SPY is likely still active. A critical area to monitor for potential support appears to be in the 0.3610-0.3625 range, a zone that has previously served as a bounce point. Should the ratio maintain its position above this probable support, a retest of the 0.3697 resistance level becomes more probable. A decisive breakout above this level would significantly increase the likelihood of continued outperformance by IWM, potentially targeting new highs beyond the scope of this 90-day data set.

However, alternative scenarios must be considered. A sustained break below the identified 0.3610-0.3625 support zone would signal a shift in the short-term dynamics, making a deeper correction more likely. In such a case, the ratio could reasonably decline towards its 90-day average of 0.3556 or potentially even retest the earlier August lows around 0.3457. The observed low volatility of 0.000039667 indicates that these movements, whether up or down, are likely to be relatively steady rather than highly erratic. Overall, based exclusively on the provided technical information, the IWM/SPY ratio shows a moderately bullish technical posture, suggesting that small-cap relative outperformance is likely to persist as long as key support levels hold.

Commodities

As a Chartered Market Technician with over 15 years of experience, I have conducted a rigorous technical analysis of the provided market data, focusing on daily percentage changes for various commodity-related symbols and the GLD/SLV ratio. My assessment relies exclusively on the given data patterns and adheres strictly to ICD-203 estimative language guidelines.

The weekly performance matrix, covering the period from 2025-09-22 to 2025-09-26, reveals a predominantly positive sentiment across the selected commodity ETFs. SLV registered the strongest weekly gain at 7.07%, followed by USO (4.69%), UGA (3.51%), CPER (2.90%), DBC (2.45%), and GLD (2.23%). Conversely, UNG and CORN experienced modest declines of -0.71% and -0.67%, respectively. This market breadth suggests a favorable environment for most commodity-related assets during the past week, with six symbols advancing and two declining, indicating broad positive momentum. Given the strong performance of most symbols, it is highly likely that buying pressure dominated the trading sessions for the advancing assets, while the declines in UNG and CORN were relatively contained.

Extending our view to the monthly performance, encompassing all 30 days of data provided, the overall trend remains largely constructive. SLV leads with a substantial monthly gain of 16.63%, indicating robust upward momentum. GLD also delivered a strong performance, appreciating by 11.24%. CPER and USO recorded notable gains of 7.59% and 5.58%, respectively. CORN, DBC, and UGA posted more moderate positive changes at 4.74%, 4.45%, and 3.88%. UNG stands as the sole decliner over the 30-day period, with a loss of -1.40%. The monthly market breadth is even more compelling, with seven out of eight symbols advancing, implying a pervasive bullish undertone across this basket of commodities. This broad advance across several asset classes suggests a robust underlying demand, making a continuation of this overall upward trend likely in the near term, barring significant technical reversals not evident in this dataset.

The GLD/SLV ratio data provides critical insights into the relative performance of gold against silver. Both the 14-day and 30-day ratio indicators show a “down” trend with “moderate” strength. The 14-day change percent is -7.81%, while the 30-day change percent is -7.04%. Crucially, the current ratio of 8.2833 is at the low point for both the 14-day and 30-day periods, indicating that silver (SLV) has significantly outperformed gold (GLD) in recent weeks. The decreasing ratio suggests that the market has favored silver more aggressively than gold. The higher volatility in the 14-day period (0.03759) compared to the 30-day period (0.02559) indicates that the short-term decline in the ratio has been more pronounced and perhaps more erratic than the longer-term trend. This divergence could imply a shift in investor preference towards the more industrially sensitive silver, or potentially reflects a rotation out of gold into higher-beta precious metals. It is likely that this trend of silver outperformance will continue in the immediate future, given the current low relative position and moderate downward trend strength. However, a mean reversion event is possible if the ratio approaches extreme historical lows.

In summary, the aggregated daily percentage change data illustrates a broadly bullish environment for the majority of the analyzed commodity-related symbols over both the weekly and monthly horizons. SLV and GLD, in particular, show strong absolute gains, though the GLD/SLV ratio clearly indicates silver’s relative strength. The market breadth is unequivocally positive, with a high proportion of advancing symbols in both timeframes. The overall outlook for these commodities, based solely on the provided technical data, is positive. An alternative scenario of broad consolidation or pullback is possible, especially for symbols that have shown strong gains, but such a reversal is not immediately evident in the current data. Continuation of the observed trends for most symbols is likely, with silver maintaining its outperformance against gold, unless new technical patterns emerge.

Technical Market Commentary: 7-Day Commodity Snapshot (2025-09-18 to 2025-09-26)

A rigorous technical analysis of the past seven trading days reveals a predominantly bullish landscape across several key commodity exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Distinct strength is observed in precious metals (SLV, GLD), refined energy products (USO, UGA), and industrial metals (CPER), all contributing to the Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) recording consistent higher closes. These uptrends are reinforced by confirming volume, signaling conviction. Natural gas (UNG) and corn (CORN) exhibit notable divergences from this broad strength.

Precious metals show significant upward momentum. SLV presents a robust uptrend, posting consistent higher highs and lows, culminating in a strong close with the highest trading volume. A continuation of SLV’s upward trajectory is highly likely. GLD also maintains a positive trend; however, its latest bullish candle on 09-26 saw relatively lower volume. This diminishing volume suggests a period of consolidation or a minor pullback is a roughly even chance for GLD before further substantial gains.

The energy complex and industrial metals broadly show strength. USO experienced a strong run, closing near its weekly high on robust volume. Yet, the final day’s candle (09-26) features an upper wick, implying some selling pressure. While the uptrend is likely to continue, a short-term consolidation or minor pullback is a reasonable possibility. UGA shows bullish momentum, supported by increasing volume, making its uptrend continuation likely. CPER broke out of a prior range with a significant price jump, confirmed by substantial volume, and further upward trend after brief consolidation is likely.

In contrast, UNG displayed significant bearish pressure. Despite a high-volume bullish attempt on 09-25, the subsequent day saw a strong bearish reversal, negating prior gains. This pattern, combined with sustained elevated volume, indicates strong selling conviction; thus, a continuation of UNG’s downward trajectory is highly likely. CORN has been largely range-bound with a slight bearish bias. Persistently low trading volume suggests a lack of strong conviction, and a continuation of the current horizontal trading range remains a roughly even chance.

In summary, the provided data broadly indicates bullish sentiment across most commodities, with volume largely confirming trends. However, distinct technical weakness exists, especially in natural gas, where a strong rejection of higher prices establishes a clear bearish outlook. Traders should monitor volume characteristics closely to gauge conviction and potential short-term reversals.

Here is a technical analysis of SLV based solely on the provided 90-day market data and indicator values.

SLV’s price action over the past 90 days suggests a strong and sustained uptrend. From lows near .50 in late May, the asset has steadily appreciated, reaching .86 by late September. This upward movement has occurred in distinct phases: an initial rally in early June, followed by consolidation, another surge in mid-July, a brief pullback/consolidation in late July/early August, and a robust rally from late August through September. Periods of significant price appreciation were accompanied by notably higher trading volumes, indicating strong buying conviction. Conversely, pullbacks or consolidations generally observed lower volumes, suggesting reduced selling pressure. The strong close at .86 on September 26, backed by substantial volume, lends support to the near-term continuation of bullish sentiment.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) analysis for SLV indicates significant bullish momentum throughout the 90-day period. The RSI has frequently entered overbought territory (above 70) during periods of strong price advancement, specifically in early June, mid-July, and, most prominently, from late August onwards. Currently, the RSI stands at an elevated 79.69 as of September 26. Readings this high strongly suggest that the asset is overextended in the short term. Historically, such elevated RSI levels often precede a period of consolidation or a modest pullback as buying pressure temporarily exhausts. Therefore, a short-term consolidation or a minor price correction is likely to occur in the immediate future to alleviate these overbought conditions. While overbought conditions suggest potential for a pullback, they do not definitively predict a reversal of the primary trend.

The PPO (Percentage Price Oscillator) with 13 and 21-day parameters consistently reinforces the underlying bullish trend in SLV. The PPO has maintained a positive value throughout the 90-day period, meaning the shorter-term Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has consistently remained above the longer-term EMA. This sustained positive PPO confirms the dominant bullish momentum. During the recent strong rally from late August to late September, the PPO value has surged, reaching 2.226 on September 26, indicating increasing strength in the bullish momentum. While the RSI signals short-term overextension, the PPO’s strong positive and rising trajectory suggests that the broader uptrend remains robust. Even during the late July price pullback, the PPO, while declining, remained positive, which indicated a weakening of bullish momentum but not a full reversal.

Synthesizing the technical data, SLV is highly likely to be in a strong, well-supported uptrend. The consistent upward price action, coupled with favorable volume characteristics, provides strong evidence for this assessment. Both the RSI and PPO confirm significant bullish momentum. However, the current extreme RSI reading of 79.69 makes a short-term consolidation or pullback likely in the coming days, as the market digests recent gains. A move to relieve these overbought conditions, possibly to retest recent support or consolidate sideways, is a plausible near-term scenario. Given the strong PPO value and overall price structure, a significant trend reversal is considered unlikely without further bearish signals. Should a pullback occur, the prevailing trend’s strength suggests it would likely be corrective, offering opportunities for long-term uptrend continuation. The primary technical evidence continues to point towards bullish market control.

Technical Analysis of GLD (90-day Horizon)

GLD has experienced a significant and sustained bullish trend over the past 90 days, particularly evident since late August. Price action from the candle data shows a clear progression of higher highs and higher lows, breaking out from previous resistance levels established in June and July. Volume also appears to have increased during this most recent rally, indicating robust participation supporting the upward movement. While there were notable pullbacks in late June and late July, the asset swiftly recovered, demonstrating underlying strength, which has culminated in the strong September rally.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) strongly reflects this bullish sentiment. After oscillating in neutral to slightly overbought conditions through June and July, with a brief dip into oversold territory in late July (39.55 on July 30), the RSI surged into extreme overbought levels from late August. It registered peaks at 79.21 on September 16 and 78.21 on September 23. Currently, the RSI is at 73.97, still well above the 70 threshold, signaling that the asset remains in an overextended condition. The recent slight decline from the September 23 peak, while still elevated, suggests that buying pressure may be losing some of its intensity.

Complementing the RSI, the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) with 13 and 21-day settings also confirms strong bullish momentum. The PPO remained consistently positive and ascended sharply from late August, peaking at 1.4476 on September 16 and then again at 1.4400 on September 23. Similar to the RSI, the PPO has shown a minor deceleration in its ascent over the very recent days, currently standing at 1.3882. This indicates that the bullish momentum, while still significant and positive, is not accelerating at its prior rate and may be undergoing a slight weakening at the margin.

A critical observation arises from the relationship between price and these momentum indicators. Despite GLD’s price making a new high on September 23, both the RSI (78.21 vs. 79.21) and the PPO (1.4400 vs. 1.4476) registered marginally lower highs compared to their September 16 peaks. This constitutes a developing bearish divergence, suggesting that the underlying strength of the rally may be diminishing even as prices attempt to push higher. Given the extended overbought conditions indicated by the RSI and the subtle bearish divergence in both indicators, a near-term pullback or period of consolidation for GLD is likely. An alternative scenario, though less likely in the immediate term, is a continuation of the rally, potentially pushing the asset further into overextended territory, before a more significant correction eventually materializes. However, the technical signals imply that the risk of a downward price adjustment has increased.

Bonds

As a seasoned CMT, my analysis focuses exclusively on the provided daily percentage change data for TLT, UTHY, IEF, IEI, and SHY over the last 30 trading days. The objective is to identify recent performance trends, market breadth, and potential shifts in momentum, strictly adhering to ICD-203 estimative language guidelines.

The most recent five trading days, spanning from 2025-09-22 to 2025-09-26, indicate a pervasive negative sentiment across all reviewed bond ETFs. The weekly percentage change for each symbol is presented in the matrix below:

For the last week, it is virtually certain that all five bond ETFs experienced declines, with IEF exhibiting the largest percentage drop. The collective weekly performance of this group of symbols is unequivocally lower, summing to a total decrease of approximately -0.98%. This uniform decline across the duration spectrum (short, intermediate, and long-term bonds) suggests a broad-based, negative short-term technical pressure impacting fixed income assets. The market breadth for the past week is characterized by zero advancing symbols and five declining symbols, indicating a highly concentrated bearish environment.

Shifting to the broader 30-day perspective, a contrasting picture emerges. All symbols registered positive returns for the entire period: TLT (1.0912%), UTHY (1.1278%), IEF (0.6559%), IEI (0.6015%), and SHY (0.1473%). This reveals an overall higher trend for these bond ETFs over the monthly horizon, with longer-duration bonds (TLT and UTHY) showing slightly stronger gains than their shorter-duration counterparts. The aggregated monthly performance for this group is notably positive, totaling approximately 3.62%. This monthly strength provides a backdrop against which the recent weekly weakness can be evaluated.

Analyzing the market breadth over the entire 30-day period further refines our understanding. Across all 150 daily data points (30 days for each of the five symbols), there were 76 instances of advancing daily performance, 71 instances of declining daily performance, and 3 flat performances. This slightly positive lean in daily advancements suggests a marginally favorable underlying sentiment over the month, indicating a fairly balanced push and pull between buyers and sellers on a day-to-day basis. The approximately even distribution between advancing and declining instances over the month signals that while the overall trend was positive, strong conviction has likely been absent for sustained periods.

Considering the divergence between robust monthly gains and recent weekly declines, it is likely that the observed short-term weakness represents either a temporary correction within a continuing broader uptrend or the initial phase of a potential trend reversal. Given that all symbols moved in lockstep during the past week, it is highly likely that this weakness is systematic rather than asset-specific, perhaps reflecting a shift in broader market expectations. The relatively mixed daily breadth over the month (advances marginally outweighing declines) suggests that the monthly gains were achieved without overwhelming bullish momentum, implying that further sustained upside would require a more decisive shift in daily breadth.

As a Chartered Market Technician with over 15 years of experience, I’ve rigorously analyzed the provided 7-day market data for TLT, UTHY, IEF, IEI, and SHY. My analysis adheres strictly to ICD-203 estimative language guidelines, focusing exclusively on the technical patterns and volume presented.

The provided 7-day candlestick data for Treasury bond ETFs (TLT, IEF, IEI, SHY, UTHY) reveals a prevailing bearish sentiment across short and mid-duration segments, with a more nuanced picture for long-duration bonds. Analyzing SHY (short-term), IEF (mid-term), and IEI (mid-term) first, a clear pattern of downward pressure emerged, particularly from September 24th onwards. SHY notably broke below prior support around 82.91-82.93 on September 25th, accompanied by the period’s highest volume, suggesting strong conviction in the selling. Despite a minor rebound on September 26th, SHY’s close remained significantly lower, making continued downward pressure likely. Similarly, IEF and IEI both decisively breached their respective support zones (96.44-96.46 for IEF, 119.52-119.56 for IEI) with significant red candles on September 25th and 26th. The increased volume for IEF on the final down day further reinforces the bearish momentum. Given these clear breakdowns from established ranges and sustained lower closes, a continuation of this downward trajectory for SHY, IEF, and IEI is very likely in the immediate short term. Alternative scenarios, such as a swift recovery, appear unlikely given the decisive nature of these declines.

TLT, representing long-duration Treasury bonds, has traded within a defined range over the past seven days, largely bounded by resistance near 89.47 and support around 88.54. A notable technical pattern is the repeated testing of the 89.47 resistance on September 18th and 26th, forming a potential double top. Despite intraday rallies, TLT consistently failed to sustain closes above this key resistance, suggesting that buying conviction at higher levels is unlikely to lead to an immediate upward breakout. The late-day selling pressure, evident in upper shadows, further supports this. Given the rejection from this critical resistance, a retest of TLT’s lower range boundary, near 88.54-88.70, is likely. The robust volume, however, without a clear directional bias on high volume days, indicates that TLT has a roughly even chance of continuing to consolidate within its established range or testing its lower support. A decisive breakdown or breakout requires further confirmation. In contrast, UTHY, an ultra-short duration bond ETF, exhibits extremely low daily trading volumes and a remarkably tight price range (approximately 41.80-42.20). This illiquidity significantly compromises the reliability of traditional technical analysis, making any discernible trend identification or pattern significance questionable. Consequently, for UTHY, there is only a roughly even chance of any short-term pattern continuation or reversal. Its movements are unlikely to reflect broader market sentiment due to its illiquidity.

Synthesizing the observations, the bond market, as represented by the majority of these ETFs, appears to be in a period of short-term weakness. For SHY, IEF, and IEI, sustained downward pressure is very likely. For TLT, continued consolidation within its established range or a test of its lower support is likely. A broad-based bond market rally in the immediate short term is unlikely given the predominant bearish signals and technical breakdowns observed.

Crypto

As a Chartered Market Technician with over 15 years of experience, this analysis will strictly adhere to technical data patterns provided, employing rigorous estimative language as per ICD-203 guidelines. Our focus is solely on the daily percentage change of IBIT and ETHA over the last 30 days.

Based on a rigorous technical review of the provided daily percentage change data for IBIT and ETHA over the past 30 days, current market dynamics suggest a prevailing bearish sentiment for both symbols. Analyzing the cumulative performance over the most recent five trading days (considered as ’last week’), both IBIT and ETHA experienced notable declines. The following matrix summarizes their weekly performance, sorted by magnitude of change:

As evidenced, IBIT registered a weekly decline of approximately -5.27%, while ETHA posted a more substantial reduction of about -9.25%. This indicates a probable acceleration of selling pressure for ETHA during this recent period, surpassing that observed in IBIT. The absence of recent sustained positive momentum in the past week for either asset suggests that buying interest has been relatively subdued.

Expanding the analysis to the full 30-day period, the overall monthly performance also reflects a bearish undertone for both assets. IBIT recorded a cumulative decline of roughly -6.84% over the month. Similarly, ETHA concluded the 30-day window with an overall loss of approximately -4.95%. The cumulative daily percentage changes for both symbols point to a likely short-to-medium term downtrend, reinforcing the bearish sentiment established by the recent weekly performance.

A deeper examination reveals divergent dynamics when comparing weekly and monthly performances. For IBIT, the weekly decline of -5.27% accounts for a significant portion of its -6.84% monthly loss, suggesting a probable intensification of downward momentum in the recent period. Conversely, ETHA’s weekly loss of -9.25% is notably greater than its cumulative monthly loss of -4.95%. This disparity implies that ETHA experienced periods of strong positive price action earlier in the 30-day window (e.g., a +14.55% day), which partially offset the recent sharp declines. However, the magnitude of ETHA’s recent weekly drop suggests a considerable shift towards negative momentum, indicating that earlier buying support is currently less robust. Furthermore, ETHA exhibits significantly higher volatility compared to IBIT, characterized by larger daily percentage swings. For instance, ETHA recorded daily movements such as +14.55% and -8.58%, whereas IBIT’s largest daily moves were around +4.01% and -5.08%. This higher volatility in ETHA means that while it is prone to larger drops, it also presents a roughly even chance of experiencing significant positive reversals, though the current data points indicate a predominance of negative recent swings.

In conclusion, based strictly on the provided technical data, both IBIT and ETHA appear to be under significant selling pressure, particularly over the most recent week. The overall trend for both symbols over the last 30 days is demonstrably lower. While ETHA’s higher volatility leaves open the possibility of sharp, unexpected rallies, the immediate technical picture suggests that continued short-term weakness is likely for both assets. A reversal would be improbable without a series of strong positive daily performances, which are not yet observable in the most recent data. Traders should observe for potential support levels being tested or evidence of a shift in daily momentum through consecutive positive closes, which are currently absent.

Magnificent 7 & Friends

As a Chartered Market Technician with over 15 years of experience, I’ve conducted a rigorous technical analysis of the provided 30-day daily percentage change data for ten prominent symbols: TSLA, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, NVDA, ANET, AVGO, META, and CRWV. My analysis adheres strictly to ICD-203 estimative language guidelines, focusing exclusively on the given technical data to derive insights into recent market performance and breadth.

Over the full 30-day period, the market performance of these selected symbols is characterized as broadly mixed, albeit with a slight bullish tilt. Six out of ten symbols (TSLA, AAPL, GOOGL, ANET, AVGO, CRWV) concluded the month with an overall positive percentage change, indicating advancing sentiment for a majority. Notably, TSLA demonstrated the strongest absolute gain, accumulating a substantial +23.95%, closely followed by GOOGL with +19.38%. Conversely, AMZN experienced the most significant decline, registering a -10.02% aggregated loss, followed by META at -8.09%. This breadth suggests that while segment-specific strength is evident, a notable portion of the market, represented by these large-cap tech and growth names, was under pressure during the period.

Examining the most recent five trading days (2025-09-22 to 2025-09-26) reveals a distinct shift towards weaker market breadth and overall performance. During this shorter timeframe, seven of the ten symbols recorded an aggregate decline, with only TSLA, AAPL, and NVDA managing to post positive returns. AMZN again led the declines with a weekly loss of -5.12%, while ANET and META also experienced considerable downward pressure. This significant change in breadth—from 60% advancing symbols over 30 days to only 30% advancing in the last week—strongly suggests a potential near-term deterioration in market sentiment. The market’s internal strength appears to be contracting, indicating that recent upside momentum may be waning.

To further illuminate volatility and significant price action, I’ve compiled a matrix highlighting the most extreme daily percentage changes across all symbols during the 30-day period. The largest single-day gain was observed in CRWV at an exceptional +16.88% on 2025-09-10, closely followed by AVGO’s +9.77% on the same day, and GOOGL’s +9.14% on 2025-09-03. These significant spikes suggest periods of heightened bullish momentum for specific issues. Conversely, the most pronounced daily losses include CRWV’s -9.41% on 2025-09-02 and ANET’s -8.18% on 2025-09-12. The presence of both strong upward and downward spikes within individual symbols, particularly CRWV and ANET, points to considerable idiosyncratic volatility, which might be indicative of speculative interest or event-driven price action rather than broad market trends.

Top 5 Highest Daily Percentage Changes (Across all symbols, 30 days):

1. CRWV: +16.88% (2025-09-10)
2. AVGO: +9.77% (2025-09-10)
3. GOOGL: +9.14% (2025-09-03)
4. TSLA: +8.03% (2025-09-12)
5. CRWV: +7.60% (2025-09-15)

Top 5 Lowest Daily Percentage Changes (Across all symbols, 30 days):

1. CRWV: -9.41% (2025-09-02)
2. ANET: -8.18% (2025-09-12)
3. CRWV: -5.05% (2025-09-25)
4. CRWV: -4.99% (2025-09-26)
5. TSLA: -4.38% (2025-09-25)

The divergence between the somewhat positive monthly aggregate performance and the decisively negative weekly breadth and individual symbol performance creates a complex technical picture. While the monthly data indicates a segment of the market maintained upward momentum, the recent weekly data suggests a likely weakening of this trend. It is roughly even chance that this recent bearish weekly sentiment could extend further, potentially challenging the broader market’s stability. Alternatively, the observed volatility within individual symbols, as highlighted by the extreme daily changes, may suggest a period of significant price discovery, rather than a definitive shift in overall direction, implying continued choppiness and opportunities for short-term traders. Further analysis of volume and price action at key support/resistance levels would be necessary to gain higher confidence in directional conviction.

S&P 500 Sector Breadth

As a Chartered Market Technician with 15 years of experience, I have conducted a rigorous technical analysis of the provided S&P 500 sector daily percentage change data spanning the last 30 days. This analysis focuses on weekly (last 5 trading days) and monthly (last 20 trading days) performance, market breadth, sector rotation, and overall market sentiment, adhering strictly to ICD-203 estimative language guidelines.

The market’s overall performance appears mixed on a short-term weekly basis, yet predominantly positive over the past month. For the last five trading days, cumulative percentage changes indicate a net negative movement across the sectors, with eight out of eleven sectors registering declines. In contrast, the last twenty trading days reveal a more robust market, with seven sectors demonstrating positive cumulative performance, suggesting an overall higher trend in the medium term. This divergence between recent weakness and broader strength merits further observation, as it could represent either a temporary pullback or a nascent shift in momentum.

Market breadth metrics reinforce this short-term/medium-term divergence. Over the past week, only three symbols advanced (XLE, XLU, XLRE) while eight declined, indicating poor market breadth and suggesting widespread weakness across the majority of sectors. Conversely, the monthly breadth appears positive, with seven advancing symbols against four declining ones. This suggests that while recent price action has been characterized by contraction, the underlying trend over the past four weeks has involved broader participation and upward momentum, primarily driven by a select group of sectors.

Examining sector performance and potential rotation, the weekly data presents a nuanced picture. Among the advancing sectors, XLE (Energy) is offensive, but XLU (Utilities) and XLRE (Real Estate) are defensive. Concurrently, a significant portion of offensive sectors (XLK, XLI, XLY, XLF, XLC, XLB) registered declines. This pattern probably indicates a short-term lean towards defensive positioning, where investors may be seeking safety, although the strong performance of XLE somewhat complicates a definitive “risk-off” interpretation. It is plausible that market participants are rotating away from broad offensive exposure towards specific pockets of strength or defensiveness in the immediate term.

Over the monthly horizon, the landscape shifts considerably, suggesting a prevailing “risk-on” sentiment. Six out of seven advancing sectors are offensive (XLC, XLK, XLY, XLE, XLI, XLF), demonstrating substantial cumulative gains. XLU (Utilities) is the only defensive sector to advance meaningfully over this period. Furthermore, only one offensive sector (XLB - Materials) recorded a monthly decline, while three defensive sectors (XLRE, XLV, XLP) also declined. This strong outperformance by offensive sectors strongly indicates a preference for growth and cyclical exposure over the past month, with any defensive rotation appearing limited to specific areas like Utilities.

In conclusion, the overall market sentiment, when synthesizing both weekly and monthly data, most likely remains cautiously optimistic. While the most recent week exhibits characteristics of short-term consolidation and potentially a defensive tilt, the broader monthly performance is clearly dominated by offensive sectors. This suggests that the current weakness is unlikely to signify a fundamental shift to a bearish environment but could represent a temporary pause or profit-taking within an established bullish, risk-on trend. Technical analysts will be closely monitoring whether the negative weekly breadth persists or if offensive sectors regain their leadership in the coming days.

Weekly Percent Change Matrix (Sorted in Descending Order):

As a CMT with extensive experience, my analysis of the provided 7-day technical data reveals a divergence in market sentiment across these selected technology and growth equities.

The past seven trading days have shown discernible strength in Apple (AAPL) and NVIDIA (NVDA). AAPL exhibited a clear upward trend, characterized by higher lows and higher highs, particularly from September 19th through September 22nd, accompanied by significant volume spikes. Although the latter half of the period involved some minor consolidation and profit-taking, the overall structure remains bullish, with price holding near recent peaks. Given the sustained buying interest and constructive consolidation, it is likely that AAPL will either continue its upward trajectory or remain range-bound at elevated levels, presenting a low likelihood of a significant immediate reversal. NVDA also experienced a strong bullish impulse on September 22nd, breaking out to new highs on exceptionally high volume. While subsequent days saw a modest pullback, price action has managed to hold above the breakout level, consolidating gains. This pattern suggests a re-accumulation phase or a pause before further movement. It is likely that NVDA will continue to trade within its new, higher price range, with a roughly even chance of retesting its recent high around in the near term.

Conversely, a prevalent bearish tone has dominated the price action for several other significant companies within the dataset. Meta Platforms (META), Broadcom (AVGO), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Amazon (AMZN) all displayed consistent downtrends over the past seven days, marked by a succession of lower highs and lower lows. Notably, AMZN experienced a significant bearish breakdown on September 23rd, which was confirmed by elevated volume, strongly suggesting increased selling pressure. For META, AVGO, and GOOGL, the downward movement on declining volume could imply a lessening of aggressive selling, yet the established trend remains negative. Given these clear bearish patterns, a continuation of the downward pressure for these four equities is likely in the immediate outlook, with a very likely scenario of retesting or breaching recent support levels. Arista Networks (ANET) followed a similar path, initially showing strength before transitioning into a steady decline, closing lower on diminishing volume towards the end of the period, making further downside likely.

The price action for Tesla (TSLA) and CrowdStrike (CRWV) has been marked by pronounced volatility, indicating significant contention between buyers and sellers. TSLA experienced wide intraday and interday swings, but managed to close the period with a strong bullish candle on September 26th, suggesting renewed buying interest around current levels. While its historical volatility makes strong directional predictions difficult, there is a roughly even chance of an upward continuation or a return to broad, unpredictable trading ranges. CRWV exhibited even more extreme volatility, with large price surges immediately followed by steep pullbacks, concluding the period with a substantial bearish candle on high volume. This pattern reflects high uncertainty and active distribution or profit-taking. It is likely that CRWV will continue to experience elevated volatility, with a roughly even chance of further downside given the latest bearish close. Finally, Microsoft (MSFT) largely consolidated in a tight range after an initial surge, with volume receding significantly. The most recent daily candle showed a slight recovery. Absent a significant catalyst or volume surge, a strong directional move is unlikely; therefore, continued range-bound trading is a roughly even chance.

PPO Market Model

Market Commentary: SPX PPO Indicator Analysis (30-Day View)

This technical commentary examines the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) for the SPX across short-term (PPO_1_5_DAY), medium-term (PPO_13_21_DAY), and long-term (PPO_21_34_DAY) horizons over the past 30 days. Our analysis reveals a notable shift in momentum across all observed timeframes. While earlier in the period showed varying dynamics, the most recent data points suggest a synchronized cooling of upward momentum, transitioning into negative directional biases in the immediate term. This convergence warrants careful consideration for traders.

The Short Term PPO (1,5 day) exhibited substantial volatility, marked by frequent and sharp zero-line crosses. After peaking at 0.704 on September 22nd, the indicator rapidly declined to -0.416 by September 25th, before a modest rebound to 0.113 on September 26th. This aggressive reversal from positive to negative momentum indicates upward pressure has largely dissipated. Further downward pressure is probable in the immediate term. While a slight bounce is possible, it is unlikely to negate the recent sharp decline without significant follow-through.

Examining the Medium Term PPO (13,21 day), we observe an initial decline from 0.543 to 0.380 in mid-August, followed by a sustained rally from early September, peaking at 0.635 on September 22nd. However, similar to the short-term view, this indicator has also commenced a clear downward trajectory in the final days, receding to 0.530 by September 26th. While the PPO remains positive, suggesting underlying bullish sentiment is present, the pronounced recent pullback signifies a loss of upward velocity. It is likely that this deceleration reflects an exhaustion of the prior rally, and further consolidation or mild downward drift is probable.

The Long Term PPO (21,34 day) presented a more resilient picture for much of the observed period. After an initial decline from 0.948 to 0.697 by early September, the indicator embarked on a steady and robust recovery, reaching a high of 0.889 on September 23rd. This indicated strong resurgence of long-term bullish momentum. Nevertheless, the final data points show a subtle but consistent decline from this peak to 0.839 on September 26th. While this recent retracement is less dramatic than in shorter timeframes, it is noteworthy. It is roughly even chance that this constitutes a minor healthy pullback within an established longer-term uptrend or signals the beginning of a more significant unwinding of momentum.

In conclusion, the convergence of recent momentum declines across all three PPO timeframes is a salient observation. The Short Term and Medium Term PPOs clearly indicate recent downward momentum, suggesting short to medium-term price action is likely to be characterized by weakness or consolidation. The Long Term PPO, while still positive, has also exhibited a recent, albeit minor, decline from its peak. This synchronized shift strongly implies the SPX is encountering significant overhead resistance or experiencing a broad-based retracement. It is highly likely that traders should anticipate continued downward pressure or at least a lack of sustained upward movement in the immediate future.

PPO Trend Matrix:

Equity Breadth

As a Chartered Market Technician with over 15 years of experience, I have rigorously analyzed the provided market data concerning the S&P 500 (SPX) member participation above key moving averages, specifically the 50-day and 200-day, alongside the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA_20_DAY) of the SPX itself. My analysis strictly adheres to ICD-203 estimative language guidelines, focusing solely on the provided technical indicators without external context.

The breadth indicator, SPXA50R, representing the percentage of S&P 500 members trading above their 50-day moving average, displayed considerable volatility and a weakening trend over the observed 30-day period (mid-August to late September). The indicator began around 60.16% on August 15th and saw an initial strong surge to a high of 74.50% by August 22nd. However, over the subsequent weeks into September, a discernible downward trend emerged. Weekly analysis indicates a decline from the high 60s in late August to the low 60s and mid-50s by mid-September. Critically, the SPXA50R fell to 48.50% on September 25th, indicating that less than half of the S&P 500 components were sustaining their short-term uptrends. While a rebound to 57.49% occurred on the final day of the data, the overall trajectory from the August peak to the recent trough signals a contraction in short-term participation. This pattern is likely to be viewed as a sign of diminishing underlying strength in the broad market’s shorter-term momentum.

Similarly, the SPXA200R, reflecting the percentage of S&P 500 members above their 200-day moving average, also experienced an initial ascent before entering a period of decline. Starting around 62.35% on August 15th, it peaked at 70.52% on August 22nd. Following this, the indicator generally trended downwards, moving from the high 60s in late August to the low 60s and even below 60% in mid-to-late September. A low of 58.08% was recorded on September 25th, corresponding with the SPXA50R’s weakness, before concluding the period at 62.08%. Although the SPXA200R maintains a higher absolute percentage than the SPXA50R, the consistent decline from its August peak indicates a subtle, but noticeable, erosion of longer-term market breadth. This suggests that fewer constituents are sustaining their long-term uptrends, which could be a precursor to broader market weakness.

In stark contrast to the breadth indicators, the EMA_20_DAY for the S&P 500 itself has exhibited a strong, sustained uptrend throughout the entire 90-day observation period (late May to late September). The EMA_20_DAY consistently recorded higher values, rising from approximately 5735 in late May to over 6579 by late September, with no material pullbacks or reversals. The slope of this moving average remains clearly positive, which unequivocally confirms a persistent short-to-intermediate term upward trend for the S&P 500 index.

The observed trends present a notable technical divergence. While the S&P 500’s EMA_20_DAY indicates a robust and continuous uptrend for the index, the declining and volatile trends in both SPXA50R and SPXA200R from their August peaks suggest diminishing underlying market participation and weakening breadth. This divergence implies that the current upward trend of the EMA_20_DAY:SPX is becoming less broad-based, potentially driven by a smaller cohort of leading stocks. Such a condition is often viewed with caution by technicians. It is highly likely that the weakening breadth signals a reduced conviction in the current rally, indicating that the sustainability of the S&P 500’s strong upward momentum is now less certain. While a reversal of the EMA_20_DAY’s direction is not immediately apparent from its own data, the declining breadth suggests a greater than roughly even chance that the pace of ascent for EMA_20_DAY:SPX may slow, or that a period of consolidation or correction for the index could become increasingly likely in the near to intermediate term if breadth fails to stabilize or improve significantly.

SPX Monthly

Technical Analysis: SPX – 90-Day Overview with Focus on Recent Trends

The S&P 500 (SPX) has demonstrated a robust uptrend over the past three months, characterized by higher highs and higher lows. The price action commenced this period around the 5940 level in late May and has ascended consistently, currently residing near 6643 as of September 26. A clear bullish alignment of the Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) has been observed throughout, with the 50-day EMA consistently above the 200-day EMA, and price action largely staying above both. This configuration, often referred to as a “golden cross” scenario when the 50-day crosses above the 200-day, has been firmly established for the entire 90-day period provided, signaling a strong long-term technical foundation. The upward slope of both EMAs further reinforces the underlying bullish momentum on a medium-to-long term basis. Periods of significant price gains, notably in late June and mid-September, correspond with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) entering overbought territory (above 70), indicating strong buying pressure.

Focusing on the most recent month, from late August to the current date, the SPX experienced an accelerated leg up to establish new highs. From approximately 6435 on August 26, the index surged to a peak of 6693 on September 22. This upward movement pushed the RSI into highly overbought conditions, reaching 74.75, which is a signal that the market may be due for a pause or reversal. Following this peak, the SPX experienced a sharp, albeit contained, pullback, declining to 6604 by September 25 before a modest rebound to 6643 on September 26. This recent price depreciation resulted in a significant drop in the RSI from its overbought levels down to 58.73 on September 25, suggesting a rapid dissipation of immediate upside momentum. Despite this recent softness, the price remains well above both its 50-day EMA (6453) and 200-day EMA (6063), indicating that the broader bullish trend remains intact.

Key technical levels for SPX can be identified from the provided data. The recent high of approximately 6693 (September 22) establishes a significant resistance zone. Should the market attempt to push higher, overcoming this level would be a bullish development. On the downside, immediate support appears to reside around the 6600-6605 area, referencing the low points of September 17 and September 25. A more robust support level is likely found near the 6440-6460 region, corresponding to the August 12-18 consolidation and the current level of the rising 50-day EMA (6453). A breach below this EMA would warrant close attention, as it has acted as dynamic support during prior shallow pullbacks. Furthermore, the August 1 low of 6212-6238 represents a critical area, having served as a pivot point for the subsequent rally, and is roughly confluent with the rising 200-day EMA, making it a strong underlying support.

Considering alternative scenarios, the bullish case appears likely to develop if the SPX can hold above the 6600 support zone and decisively reclaim the 6693 resistance. A sustained move above this level, perhaps accompanied by the RSI returning to the mid-to-high 60s without re-entering extreme overbought territory immediately, would suggest renewed buying interest and a continuation of the prevailing uptrend towards higher targets. The strongly upward sloping EMAs lend underlying support to this thesis, making a continued uptrend probable unless key support levels are violated.

Conversely, the bearish case would emerge if the SPX fails to hold the 6600 immediate support, with a subsequent breach of the crucial 6440-6460 zone, particularly a convincing break below the 50-day EMA. Such a development, especially if accompanied by the RSI dropping below 50 and remaining weak, would signal a shift in short-term control to sellers. A more significant bearish outcome, involving a potential test of the 200-day EMA near 6063 or even the August 1 low of 6212, is unlikely in the immediate term given the current EMA configuration, but becomes increasingly probable if the aforementioned closer support levels fail.

A neutral or consolidation case has a roughly even chance of developing in the immediate future, especially given the sharp surge and recent pullback. The SPX might oscillate between the 6693 resistance and the 6600-6440 support range. This scenario would involve the RSI fluctuating between 40 and 70, reflecting a period of indecision and price discovery after the recent high. Such a phase could allow the lagging indicators, like the EMAs, to catch up to price, potentially setting the stage for the next directional move.

Technical sentiment drivers in the near future will likely be influenced by the market’s response to the recent peak at 6693. A successful test and breach of this level would likely instill bullish confidence, attracting momentum buyers. Conversely, a failure to surpass 6693 on subsequent attempts, particularly if followed by a breakdown below the 50-day EMA, would likely trigger a shift to cautious or bearish sentiment, leading to profit-taking and potential short-selling. The RSI’s trajectory from its current level (62.78) will be critical; a rebound towards overbought could suggest renewed strength, while a continued descent towards oversold levels would indicate increasing selling pressure and a likely contraction in market sentiment.

The S&P 500 (SPX) has demonstrated a sustained upward trend over the past 90 days, climbing from the upper 5900s in late May to establish new highs above 6600 by late September. This period was characterized by robust bullish momentum, punctuated by only a few shallow corrections. Notably, a significant pullback occurred in early August, where the index retraced from approximately 6388 to 6238, which appears to have served as a support test before the resumption of the broader uptrend. The consistent establishment of higher highs and higher lows throughout the data provided underscores a strong underlying bullish sentiment over this intermediate-term horizon.

Examining the Relative Strength Index (RSI_14_DAY) reveals a pattern of overbought conditions preceding short-term price pullbacks. The RSI repeatedly surged above the 70 threshold, notably reaching 75.57 in early July and 76.29 in late July, both instances being followed by subsequent price consolidations or declines. Most recently, the RSI peaked at 74.75 on September 22, indicating highly overbought conditions at that juncture. Following this peak, the SPX experienced a modest retreat, with the RSI currently standing at 62.78. This pattern suggests it is likely that the market is undergoing a short-term digestion phase after reaching extended levels.

Momentum indicators, as represented by the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) series, offer further insights. The short-term PPO (PPO_1_5_DAY) has recently undergone a notable shift. After peaking at 0.704 on September 22, it turned negative, registering -0.416 on September 25 before a slight recovery to 0.113 on September 26. This crossover below zero is a bearish signal for very short-term momentum, indicating that selling pressure has likely gained an advantage over buying pressure in the immediate timeframe. The intermediate-term PPO (PPO_13_21_DAY) and longer-term PPO (PPO_21_34_DAY), while remaining positive, also exhibit a recent deceleration. The PPO_13_21_DAY declined from 0.635 to 0.530, and the PPO_21_34_DAY from 0.884 to 0.839 over the same period. This suggests that while the overarching bullish momentum persists, there is a discernible weakening across all timeframes.

Given the confluence of the RSI’s retreat from overbought territory and the broad-based, albeit minor, deceleration in PPO momentum across different timeframes, it is probable that the SPX will experience further short-term consolidation or a moderate pullback. A potential near-term support area could be identified around the 6350-6400 range, which acted as a resistance in late July and support during early August. However, the sustained positive readings of the intermediate and longer-term PPOs indicate that the overall bullish trend is likely to remain intact, suggesting that any significant decline would more plausibly represent a buying opportunity rather than a trend reversal. Should the SPX manage to quickly reclaim and hold above the 6690 level, it would suggest that the recent pullback was minimal and the bullish momentum could re-accelerate, rendering the current bearish short-term signals less significant.