Daily Market Technical Analysis

Market Overview

Broad market indices exhibited a uniform decline with negative breadth, while the VIX rose significantly, making continued downward pressure on equities more likely in the immediate future. S&P 500 sector breadth was predominantly negative, and overall equity breadth showed a divergence between a rising SPX EMA and declining market participation, indicating a sustained upward trend is unlikely without a rebound. Tech (QQQ) maintains minor relative strength within a consolidation, but a robust breakout is unlikely, and small-caps (IWM) are likely to continue underperforming against large-caps. Commodities demonstrated broad strength, with silver’s outperformance against gold a roughly even chance to persist. While the SPX retains a bullish framework, a short-term bearish retracement or neutral consolidation is a roughly even chance.

Market Indices

Here is a technical analysis based solely on the provided market data:

The broad market indices exhibited a uniform decline on the most recent trading day. The following matrix details the daily percent changes for the observed symbols, sorted in descending order:

Summing these daily percentage changes indicates an overall negative shift of approximately -1.702% across these representative market segments. This suggests the market, as measured by these indices, was unequivocally lower.

Market breadth, a critical technical indicator, was decidedly negative. All six observed symbols—IJR, IWM, MDY, SPX, OEF, and QQQ—registered declines, resulting in zero advancing symbols against six declining symbols. This points to weak internal market strength and a broad-based move to the downside. The smaller capitalization indices (IJR and IWM) experienced relatively larger percentage declines compared to the large-cap growth (QQQ) and broad market indices (SPX, OEF), which is often indicative of a risk-off sentiment prevailing in the session.

Concurrently, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) experienced a notable increase of 4.27% on the same day. Analyzing the 7-day candlestick data for VIX reveals a clear shift in its price action. Following a period of fluctuating movement, VIX demonstrated strong bullish momentum over the last two trading sessions. On 2025-09-15, it formed a robust bullish candle, closing at 15.69. This was followed by an even stronger bullish candle on 2025-09-16, closing at 16.36, which represents the highest closing level within the provided 7-day data. This upward trajectory in VIX is highly likely to correspond with increased market uncertainty or expected volatility.

The confluence of declining equity indices, poor market breadth, and a significant rise in the VIX strongly suggests an environment of heightened investor concern. Given the decisive move higher in the VIX, it is likely that market participants are anticipating increased volatility or further downside in equity prices. While there is always a roughly even chance of a short-term counter-trend rally, the current technical setup, especially the VIX’s breakout, indicates that continued downward pressure on equities is a more likely scenario in the immediate future.

Tech Sector Analysis

As a Chartered Market Technician, my analysis of the QQQ/SPY ratio data focuses on relative performance trends and probabilistic outlooks.

QQQ/SPY 14-day Relative Strength The QQQ/SPY 14-day ratio closed at its period high of 0.8957, reflecting QQQ’s strongest recent outperformance against SPY. Despite this terminal strength, the established trend is characterized as “sideways” with “weak” strength and minimal volatility (0.000014). This indicates a lack of strong directional conviction over the short term. It is slightly greater than an even chance that QQQ will maintain minor relative strength in the immediate future, potentially challenging the upper boundary of its short-term range. However, a robust continuation of this outperformance beyond recent bounds is unlikely given the subdued trend characteristics.

30-day Context and Sideways Consolidation Expanding to the 30-day ratio, the overall trend is also identified as “sideways” with “weak” strength. While the current ratio of 0.8957 shows QQQ’s recovery from its August lows, it remains below the 30-day high of 0.9025. This broader perspective suggests QQQ’s recent strength is part of a larger consolidation phase within a defined range. The consistently low volatility across both periods (0.000031 for 30-day) reinforces this view, indicating no imminent strong directional conviction or expansion of the relative performance range.

Probabilistic Assessment for Outperformance Given the persistent classification of the trend as “weak” and “sideways” across both timeframes, there is a roughly even chance the QQQ/SPY ratio will continue to consolidate within its established multi-week range. While QQQ is likely to sustain its current minor relative strength in the immediate short-term, especially given its position at the 14-day high, a definitive breakout indicating sustained, significant outperformance above the 30-day high of 0.9025 is unlikely. This would require a material shift in trend strength or volatility, neither of which are presently observed in the provided technical data.

IWM vs. SPY

As a Chartered Market Technician with over 15 years of experience, I analyze the provided IWM/SPY ratio data to assess the relative performance between small-cap (Russell 2000) and large-cap (S&P 500) indices.

Over the 30-day period, the IWM/SPY ratio has demonstrated an overall upward trend, reflecting a period where the Russell 2000 has generally outperformed the S&P 500. The ratio has increased by +2.656% during this timeframe, with the current ratio of 0.3610 remaining above the 30-day average ratio of 0.3587. This suggests a general bias towards small-cap strength over the broader month. However, the “weak” strength attributed to this upward trend indicates that this outperformance has lacked significant conviction, suggesting that while small-caps have gained, the move has not been forceful. The ratio’s relative position at 0.7067 within its 30-day range further supports its current state as being above the average, yet not at its absolute peak.

A closer inspection of the recent 14-day data reveals a distinct shift in relative momentum. The IWM/SPY ratio is now exhibiting a “down” trend, also classified with “weak” strength, and registering a negative change of -1.054%. Crucially, the current ratio of 0.3610 represents the low_ratio for this 14-day period. This indicates that IWM’s relative underperformance against SPY has accelerated recently, with large-caps now demonstrating relative strength. The extremely low volatility for the 14-day period suggests a rather stable decline in the ratio, reinforcing the recent shift without erratic price action.

The divergence between the longer-term upward trend and the immediate-term downward trend presents a nuanced technical picture. Given that the current ratio is at the 14-day low, it is likely that the observed relative underperformance of IWM against SPY will persist in the immediate future. A test of the 30-day average ratio of 0.3587 is likely if the current short-term trend maintains its weak but consistent downward trajectory. Conversely, a sustained reversal from this 14-day low to re-establish the prior longer-term outperformance appears unlikely in the immediate term, given the current momentum and the ratio’s position at its short-term floor.

Commodities

Here is a technical analysis of the provided market data:

The daily percent change data for the monitored commodities shows a largely positive session. UNG (2.401%), USO (1.940%), UGA (1.421%), DBC (1.020%), and CORN (1.012%) led advancers. GLD gained 0.201%. CPER (-0.276%) and SLV (-0.413%) declined. The aggregated daily change across these eight symbols totals a positive 7.306%, indicating an overall higher valuation for the commodity complex.

Market breadth is notably positive, with six symbols advancing and only two declining, representing a 3:1 ratio. This broad participation suggests general strength across the commodity sector. It is likely this widespread positive sentiment contributes to the overall gains and could support continued upward momentum in the very near term.

The 14-day GLD/SLV ratio, currently at 8.7977, shows a weak downtrend with a -1.56% change. This suggests SLV has likely outperformed GLD over this period. Its position near the 14-day low (relative position 0.2234) reinforces silver’s near-term advantage, indicating market preference for silver relative to gold in the short-to-medium term.

The 30-day GLD/SLV ratio also indicates a weak downtrend (-2.88% change), extending silver’s outperformance against gold. The current ratio’s proximity to the 30-day low (relative position 0.1711) confirms this persistent relative strength. Given the weak trend strength in both periods, it is roughly even chance that silver’s relative outperformance continues, although a reversal favoring gold remains a possibility.

Bonds

As a Chartered Market Technician with over 15 years of experience, I’ve analyzed the provided daily percentage change data for TLT, UTHY, IEF, IEI, and SHY. The immediate observation reveals uniform positive movement across all specified symbols for the given period.

The market data matrix is as follows:

Analyzing the overall change, the aggregate daily movement for this basket of instruments is definitively higher, summing to approximately 0.6294%. This collective positive performance across all observed durations indicates a clear, albeit modest, upward bias for the day. While the magnitude of individual gains is relatively small, this broad participation suggests an underlying positive technical sentiment. It is highly likely that these minor adjustments reflect demand surpassing supply during the trading session, contributing to an overall higher directional move.

Market breadth for this specific group of symbols is overwhelmingly positive. All five symbols advanced (5 out of 5), with zero declines, creating a 5:0 advancing-to-declining ratio. This perfect breadth profile indicates a uniformly positive technical environment across the entire observed segment. Such universal participation in an upward move is likely indicative of broad, albeit restrained, buying interest. However, this single-day observation provides limited scope for long-term projection; therefore, it is roughly even chance that this specific pattern will immediately continue without further confirmatory data.

Crypto

Technical Market Commentary (CMT, 15+ years experience)

Our analysis of the provided one-day percentage change data for IBIT and ETHA reveals distinct, albeit short-term, directional movements. For the trading day ending 2025-09-16, IBIT registered a positive change, while ETHA experienced a marginal decline. The observed technical data is summarized as follows:

Based on this limited dataset, we assess that IBIT demonstrated a notable upward momentum, reflecting a likely bullish sentiment for the asset over this single period. Conversely, ETHA’s minimal negative change suggests a relatively flat performance with a slight downward bias, indicating a roughly even chance of either a minor continued drift or a swift reversal, given the extremely small magnitude of the decline.

Aggregating these movements, the sum of the daily percentage changes is approximately +1.299%. This cumulative positive value suggests an overall ‘higher’ trend across these two specific assets for the observed 24-hour period. However, given that this analysis relies on a single day’s data point for each symbol, we judge with low confidence that this sum indicates a sustained trend. It is plausible that the strong positive movement in IBIT is largely responsible for the aggregate positive return, masking the near-flat performance of ETHA. We assess that further data would be necessary to establish more robust technical patterns or to confirm any enduring directional biases.

Magnificent 7 & Friends

As a Chartered Market Technician with over 15 years of experience, the following technical analysis is based solely on the provided daily percentage change data for the specified symbols.

An analysis of the provided daily percentage changes for these ten symbols reveals a marginally negative aggregate performance for the session, with the summed change totaling approximately -1.38%. This indicates a slight overall downward bias within this specific group of equities. Market breadth for this cohort leans bearish, with six symbols declining compared to four symbols advancing. The greater number of declining assets suggests that negative sentiment was prevalent across a majority of these constituents, making a broad upward movement for the overall group unlikely based solely on this session’s data. It is plausible that idiosyncratic factors are influencing individual performance rather than a uniform market trend for this specific basket of equities. While the aggregated performance points to a slight negative drift, the technical picture is not unequivocally bearish.

Despite the overall negative sum, price action within this defined group was notably mixed. TSLA, META, and AMZN exhibited notable strength, posting gains of +2.824%, +1.870%, and +1.132% respectively, acting as significant counterweights. Conversely, ANET, NVDA, and CRWV experienced pronounced declines of -2.249%, -1.615%, and -1.428%. This distribution of both strong advances and declines suggests underlying divergences rather than a cohesive directional narrative. The mixed performance, combined with the modest aggregate decline, implies a market character for this group that is likely undergoing consolidation or selective rotation. It is roughly even chance that this reflects a temporary imbalance in individual supply/demand. Should declining breadth persist, a more pronounced bearish trend becomes likely, but current data suggests a selective market dynamic.

Daily Percent Change Matrix

S&P 500 Sector Breadth

As a Chartered Market Technician, the analysis of the provided daily percentage changes for eleven S&P 500 sectors reveals a predominantly negative short-term technical posture. The aggregated daily percentage change across all symbols indicates an overall lower trend, with the sum totaling approximately -1.24%. Market breadth for these components is notably negative, as seven sectors experienced declines compared to three advances and one flat performance. This distribution strongly suggests a prevailing bearish bias across these market segments for the period, indicating that overall market momentum, as reflected by these ETFs, is highly likely to be favoring downward price action.

Examining sector-specific movements, XLE (Energy) and XLY (Consumer Discretionary) emerged as the strongest advancers, gaining 1.68% and 0.61% respectively, alongside XLP (Consumer Staples) with a modest 0.45% rise. Conversely, XLU (Utilities) recorded the most significant decline at -1.82%. Other declining sectors included XLRE, XLC, XLK, XLB, XLI, and XLF, while XLV (Healthcare) remained flat. Among the defined offensive sectors (XLK, XLY, XLF, XLI, XLB, XLE), two advanced, but four experienced declines. Concurrently, within the defensive sectors (XLU, XLP, XLV, XLRE), one advanced, two declined, and one was flat. This mixed performance, with more declining offensive sectors than advancing, indicates that a broad rotation into offensive leadership is unlikely. Instead, the data suggests selective strength within particular offensive pockets rather than widespread risk-on rotation, presenting a nuanced but overall cautious outlook.

The precise daily percentage changes for each analyzed symbol are presented below, sorted in descending order:

Equity Breadth

As a Chartered Market Technician with over 15 years of experience, I will provide a rigorous technical analysis of the provided S&P 500 data.

An analysis of S&P 500 market breadth reveals a generalized weakening over the seven-day period. The SPXA50R, indicating the percentage of members trading above their 50-day moving average, declined from 61.08% on September 8th to 53.69% by September 16th, despite a notable mid-period rebound. Similarly, the SPXA200R, representing the percentage of members above their 200-day average, showed a less severe but consistent contraction from 63.67% to 61.48% over the same timeframe. This synchronous decline in both short and long-term breadth suggests a likely erosion of widespread market participation and underlying strength, implying fewer stocks are contributing to any broad market advance.

Conversely, the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for the S&P 500 itself exhibited a clear and consistent upward trajectory during the observed period. The EMA advanced steadily from 6439.90 on September 8th to 6502.44 by September 16th. This persistent increase in the SPX’s short-term EMA indicates that the index maintained an established upward price momentum. Based solely on this data, the immediate trend direction of the EMA remains unequivocally positive.

The observed divergence between the consistently rising S&P 500 20-day EMA and the contracting market breadth indicators (SPXA50R and SPXA200R) is a significant technical observation. While the EMA reflects a current upward trend for the index, the diminishing participation from a broader base of stocks suggests this momentum might be concentrated. It is unlikely this upward EMA trend can be sustained indefinitely without a rebound in underlying breadth. There is a roughly even chance that this divergence could precede either a slowdown in the EMA’s ascent or a period of consolidation for the S&P 500, should breadth continue to weaken.

SPX Daily

The SPX has exhibited a robust uptrend over the past seven trading days, advancing from 6495.15 to 6606.76, characterized by higher highs and higher lows, signaling strong bullish momentum. Both the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are in a consistent upward trajectory, with price significantly above them (50-day EMA at 6382.45, 200-day EMA at 6015.28), underpinning the trend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached an overbought 70.00 on September 15th, indicating an extended rally.

On the most recent trading day (2025-09-16), the SPX closed at 6606.76 after a high of 6626.99, forming a bearish candle. The RSI concurrently receded to 68.45 from overbought. This short-term action suggests immediate profit-taking or temporary exhaustion. Immediate overhead resistance is at 6626.99, while near-term support is around 6579.49 (2025-09-12 low). The rising 50-day EMA provides dynamic support.

For future price action, a bullish continuation beyond 6626.99 is considered likely, given the strong underlying trend. However, a bearish retracement to test 6579.49 or the 50-day EMA is a roughly even chance in the immediate term, driven by recent profit-taking. Alternatively, a neutral consolidation between 6579.49 and 6626.99 is also a roughly even chance. Technical sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with short-term hesitancy within a dominant bullish framework.