Daily Market Technical Analysis

Market Overview

Equity markets exhibited broad positive performance with major indices advancing; however, a significant divergence emerged as the VIX surged over 6%, signaling increased implied volatility. The S&P 500 shows a robust bullish trend and a new 90-day high, reinforced by synchronized upward momentum across all PPO timeframes. Despite this, declining market breadth for the S&P 500 and negative sector breadth present a technical concern, suggesting fewer constituents are driving the rally. This divergence, coupled with an elevated RSI for SPX, indicates a plausible risk of near-term consolidation despite strong price action. It is roughly even chance the VIX spike is temporary versus foreshadowing headwinds, while a continuation of the SPX rally is likely, albeit with potential for sideways movement to alleviate overbought conditions.

Market Indices

Technical Market Commentary

The equity markets exhibited a broadly positive performance today, with five out of the six analyzed indices closing higher. Leading the advance was QQQ with a robust +0.86% gain, followed by OEF at +0.78%, SPX at +0.47%, IWM at +0.42%, and IJR with a modest +0.09% increase. The only declining equity index was MDY, experiencing a marginal -0.03% dip. Overall market change across these instruments was significantly positive, summing to approximately +2.59%. Market breadth was notably strong, with five advancing symbols against only one declining, suggesting widespread upward momentum across various market capitalizations, though large-cap growth (QQQ) showed particular strength.

However, a notable divergence appears when observing the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). On the latest trading day, VIX surged by +6.30%, closing at 15.69. Reviewing the 7-day candlestick data for VIX reveals a consistent pattern of volatility around the 15-handle, with the recent close representing a significant daily advance from 14.76. This strong bullish candle for VIX, following a relatively flat prior day, indicates a material increase in implied market volatility and perceived risk. It is likely that market participants are exhibiting some apprehension, despite the overall positive equity performance, creating a potential technical conundrum.

This divergence between advancing equity indices and a sharply rising VIX suggests two plausible scenarios. One possibility is that the VIX’s rise represents a short-term, reflexive spike in implied volatility that may not be sustained if equity strength persists; in this case, the VIX would be unlikely to maintain its upward trajectory. Conversely, there is a roughly even chance that the VIX’s surge is foreshadowing potential headwinds for the equity market, implying that the current rally might be met with increased selling pressure in the immediate future. Technical analysts would likely monitor how this divergence resolves, as sustained higher VIX levels alongside equity gains are typically unsustainable.

Tech Sector Analysis

As a Chartered Market Technician with over 15 years of experience, I’ve analyzed the provided 14-day QQQ/SPY ratio data to assess the relative performance between the NASDAQ-100 and the S&P 500.

Analysis of the QQQ/SPY 14-day ratio indicates a weak, sideways trend in the relative performance of the NASDAQ-100 versus the S&P 500. The ratio fluctuated within a tight range of approximately 0.8834 to 0.8952, with exceptionally low volatility. This suggests neither QQQ nor SPY established sustained outperformance against the other across the full period, reflecting a state of equilibrium between the two indices based solely on the provided data.

Despite the overall sideways classification, the ratio concluded the period at its 14-day high of 0.89525. This recent upward movement suggests an emerging, albeit weak, outperformance by QQQ relative to SPY in the latter half of the window. The starting ratio (0.8875) was closer to the period’s low, reinforcing that the observed movement within this sideways trend was an ascent towards its upper bound, now testing potential resistance.

Given these conflicting signals—a weak sideways trend versus recent high-end momentum—a significant breakout to new highs for the ratio is possible, but not yet probable. It is roughly an even chance that the ratio will consolidate or experience a slight pullback towards its average of 0.8889, consistent with weak sideways trends. A sustained acceleration in QQQ outperformance or underperformance, moving beyond this range, appears unlikely without a clearer technical breakout or increased volatility.

IWM vs. SPY

As a CMT with extensive experience, we have analyzed the provided 14-day IWM/SPY ratio data to assess the relative performance of small-cap equities (IWM) against large-cap equities (SPY). Over the entire observation period, the ratio has exhibited a “sideways” trend, with a stated “weak” strength and a marginal overall change of 0.27%. The ratio traded within a tight range, from a low of 0.36215 on September 15th to a high of 0.36736 on September 5th. This narrow range, coupled with exceptionally low volatility (0.000002), suggests a period of technical consolidation rather than a robust directional trend across the full 14 days.

Despite the overarching sideways classification, the most recent technical action presents a clearer bias. Following its peak on September 5th at 0.36736, the ratio has demonstrated a consistent decline, characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows. This culminated in the ratio closing at its 14-day low of 0.36215 on September 15th. This pattern indicates a recent shift where large-cap equities (SPY) have begun to show relative outperformance compared to small-cap equities (IWM). The current ratio’s position at the absolute bottom of its two-week range is a notable technical signal of weakening relative strength for IWM.

Based on this recent technical breakdown and the current placement at the 14-day low, we judge it likely that SPY will continue to exhibit relative outperformance against IWM in the immediate term. The momentum, albeit within a historically tight range, now favors SPY. However, given the overall weak and sideways nature of the 14-day trend and the extremely low volatility, there is roughly an even chance that the ratio could attempt to stabilize around these lows or experience a modest reversion towards its 14-day average of 0.36429. A sustained move above this average would diminish the likelihood of continued IWM underperformance, indicating a potential return to strict sideways consolidation.

Commodities

Market Commentary: Daily Commodity Snapshot

Analysis of today’s market data for key commodities reveals a generally positive performance. The aggregated daily percent change for the eight observed symbols registers a net gain of approximately 9.64%, suggesting overall upward momentum for this specific basket of assets. UNG, representing natural gas, led advances with a notable +3.1974% increase, followed by CPER (copper) at +1.5035% and UGA (gasoline) at +1.3235%. USO (oil), SLV (silver), GLD (gold), and DBC (broad commodities) also posted gains. Only CORN experienced a decline, losing -0.6704%. Market breadth for this group is decisively positive, with seven out of eight symbols advancing against only one declining symbol. This breadth condition indicates a likely broad-based upward movement within these commodity segments, particularly for energy and industrial metal components.

The GLD/SLV 14-day ratio data provides insights into the relative performance of gold versus silver. The most recent ratio, recorded on September 15, stands at 8.7438, which also represents the lowest point observed within this 14-day window. This latest reading suggests that silver (SLV) has likely outperformed gold (GLD) over the immediate past few sessions, contributing to the ratio’s decline from its high of 8.9849 on September 09. Such a decline implies a probable short-term shift in investor preference or demand favoring silver relative to gold.

While the explicit 14-day trend object indicates an “up” direction with “weak” strength over the broader period, its stated current_ratio (8.9115) corresponds to the start of the 14-day data, not the present. Given that the ratio has subsequently moved to its 14-day low of 8.7438 on the most recent date, there is a roughly even chance that the immediate trend in relative strength is reversing or has already reversed to favor silver over gold, despite the overall 14-day “up” trend from the earliest point. This divergence between the calculated trend over the full period and the recent price action introduces uncertainty, suggesting a recent momentum shift favoring silver. The absence of a 30-day ratio prevents a longer-term perspective, limiting our ability to form higher confidence conclusions regarding the intermediate-term trend of this precious metals relationship.

Bonds

Our technical analysis of daily percentage changes for a selection of fixed income ETFs on September 15, 2025, reveals a uniformly positive session. All instruments, representing various bond durations, advanced. The sorted matrix is as follows:

• TLT: +0.2335%
• UTHY: +0.1776%
• IEF: +0.1650%
• IEI: +0.1085%
• SHY: +0.0362% This pattern shows slightly stronger gains in longer-duration instruments (TLT, UTHY) compared to shorter-duration ones (IEI, SHY) during the observed period, indicating a potential, albeit subtle, preference for duration within this positive flow.

The aggregate daily movement across these five fixed income instruments sums to approximately +0.7207%. Based strictly on this data, we judge it highly likely that the overall performance for this specific fixed income universe was higher for the day, rather than mixed, lower, or flat. This collective upward shift, while individually modest, is notable for its consistency across all observed symbols, indicating a general positive sentiment for this defined segment of the bond market.

Regarding market breadth, all five symbols (TLT, UTHY, IEF, IEI, SHY) recorded positive daily percentage changes, resulting in 5 advancing symbols and 0 declining symbols. We assess with high confidence that market breadth for these specific fixed income ETFs was unequivocally positive. This robust breadth suggests that the upward movement was broad-based and not concentrated in just a few instruments. Alternative scenarios of mixed or negative breadth are highly unlikely given the unanimous positive performance observed, pointing to pervasive bullish pressure across this particular fixed income cohort.

Crypto

Good morning, traders. Our technical analysis today focuses on the single-day performance of IBIT and ETHA, based solely on the provided daily percentage change data. The observed data points for September 15th, 2025, indicate the following:

Both symbols registered declines for the observed session. IBIT experienced a moderate pullback of -1.33%, while ETHA demonstrated a more significant depreciation of -3.82%. This suggests a bearish sentiment for both assets during this specific trading period. The individual performances clearly reflect downward pressure.

Summing the daily percentage changes reveals an aggregate movement of -5.14% for these two assets. Based on this direct aggregation, the overall change for the observed period is demonstrably lower. It is likely that broad market sentiment impacting these specific instruments was negative, contributing to the observed decline. There is a high probability that traders reacted with selling pressure across these assets during the session.

Given the limitation of a single day’s data point for each symbol, it is inherently uncertain to project long-term trends or sustained reversals. While the immediate technical reading indicates bearish momentum, it is roughly an even chance that this represents a temporary retracement within a larger trend, or the initial stage of a more prolonged downturn. A high degree of caution is warranted, and further consecutive data points would be required to form a more confident assessment of future price direction.

Magnificent 7 & Friends

Good morning. As a CMT with over 15 years of experience, I’ve analyzed the provided daily percent change data for a select group of technology and growth-oriented symbols. Our assessment of the overall change for this specific basket of stocks indicates a notable upward movement. The aggregate sum of the daily percent changes for these ten symbols is approximately +26.96%. This figure suggests it is highly likely that investor sentiment within this particular segment was broadly positive for the period under review, leading to a decidedly higher close for the collective.

Examining market breadth, we observe a significantly positive trend. Out of the ten symbols provided, nine recorded positive daily percent changes, while only one symbol, NVDA, experienced a marginal decline. This breadth ratio of 9 advancing to 1 declining symbol indicates that market participation in the rally was extensive across this specific group. We assess with high confidence that the underlying buying pressure was widespread, minimizing the impact of the sole declining component and signaling robust upward momentum within this cohort of assets.

The individual performance of each symbol, sorted by daily percent change, is presented below:

CRWV led the gains with a significant move, followed by GOOGL and ANET. While the majority of symbols posted gains exceeding 1%, NVDA’s fractional decline stands out as an isolated instance of negative performance within an otherwise strong upward surge for this defined group. Based solely on this data, it is highly probable that the positive momentum could persist in the immediate term for these advancing symbols, assuming no other technical indicators present conflicting signals, which are not provided here.

S&P 500 Sector Breadth

As a Chartered Market Technician, my analysis of the provided daily percentage change data for the S&P 500 sector ETFs indicates the following market conditions:

The aggregate daily performance across the eleven S&P 500 sector ETFs indicates a marginally higher overall market, with the sum of daily percentage changes totaling approximately +0.38%. However, market breadth exhibited a negative bias, as six sectors declined while five advanced. This disparity implies that while the composite movement was slightly positive, most individual sectors experienced downward pressure, suggesting a lack of widespread market participation.

Analysis of sector performance reveals a mixed picture. Offensive sectors XLC (+1.41%), XLK (+0.90%), XLY (+0.87%), and XLI (+0.46%) advanced, showcasing strong performance in specific growth-oriented areas. XLF, XLB, and XLE declined. For defensive sectors, only XLU (+0.23%) posted gains, while XLP (-1.15%), XLV (-0.85%), and XLRE (-0.12%) declined. This pattern suggests market sentiment likely favors specific offensive plays, rather than broadly seeking defensive safety, indicating selective capital flow.

The dominant positive contributions from Communication Services (XLC) and Technology (XLK) suggest concentrated strength. However, negative breadth and declines in several other offensive and most defensive sectors present a cautious undercurrent. It is roughly even chance this signals healthy rotation within growth categories or, alternatively, a limited rally lacking broader market conviction. Sustained strength would likely require wider participation beyond these leading offensive sectors.

Sector Performance Matrix (Sorted by Daily % Change, Descending):

2. PPO Market Model As a Chartered Market Technician with over 15 years of experience, I’ve analyzed the provided SPX PPO data across various timeframes to offer insights into current momentum. Our assessment focuses exclusively on the available technical indicators to determine trend direction and potential implications.

The SPX Short Term PPO (PPO_1_5_DAY) displays a volatile yet upward trajectory over the past seven days. After surging from 0.1500 to 0.8169, it pulled back to 0.5416, then rebounded to 0.6742. This recent recovery suggests bullish sentiment is likely persisting in the immediate term, though its volatility highlights potential for rapid shifts. An overall uptrend is discernible despite these fluctuations.

The Medium Term PPO (PPO_13_21_DAY) presents a clear and sustained upward trend, consistently rising from 0.3443 to 0.5094. This uninterrupted ascent suggests the bullish trend in the medium term is highly likely to continue, reinforcing short-term positive indications. The absence of significant retracements makes this indicator a strong corroborator of upward price action.

The Long Term PPO (PPO_21_34_DAY) shows an overall constructive trend. Following a minor initial dip, it commenced a consistent rise from 0.6978 to 0.7821. This sustained upward movement, coupled with the overall net increase, indicates broader market sentiment remains decidedly bullish. It is probable this positive long-term momentum will continue, providing a supportive backdrop.

The combined technical picture points towards synchronized upward momentum across all SPX timeframes. The Short Term PPO’s rebound, alongside the consistent ascent of Medium and Long Term indicators, collectively suggests a reinforcing bullish environment. It is unlikely this broad-based positive momentum would reverse abruptly without further technical indications. However, the Short Term PPO’s volatility warrants attention; a rapid downturn could signal an earlier sentiment shift not immediately apparent.

3. Equity Breadth

Here is a technical analysis based solely on the provided market data:

Analysis of the S&P 500’s breadth, specifically the percentage of members trading above their 50-day Moving Average (SPXA50R), reveals a weakening pattern over the past seven days. After starting near 61% on September 5th and 8th, the indicator initially dipped before peaking at 65.86% on September 11th. However, following this peak, SPXA50R has consistently declined, reaching 57.08% by September 15th. This recent downward trajectory, concluding below initial levels, indicates a likely decrease in underlying market participation and a weakening of medium-term breadth support for the S&P 500.

It must be noted that data for the percentage of S&P 500 members above their 200-day Moving Average (SPXA200R) was not provided for analysis. In stark contrast to the SPXA50R’s recent trend, the S&P 500’s 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA_20_DAY) has displayed a clear and consistent upward trend. Its values steadily increased from 6434.08 on September 5th to 6491.45 on September 15th, confirming robust short-term upward momentum for the index itself.

The observed divergence between the declining market breadth (SPXA50R) and the steadily rising price momentum (EMA_20_DAY) presents a significant technical concern. While the index maintains a short-term bullish trend, the weakening participation suggests this advance is driven by fewer constituents. It is roughly even chance that this divergence resolves with a continued advance; however, it is also likely that diminishing breadth might foreshadow a deceleration or even a reversal in the EMA_20_DAY’s upward trend.

4. SPX Daily

The SPX is currently demonstrating a robust bullish trend, trading significantly above its upward-sloping 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), positioned at 6373.29 and 6009.33 respectively. This clear alignment confirms a dominant long-term uptrend. Over the past seven trading days, the index has experienced substantial upward momentum, advancing from 6481.5 on September 5th to a new 90-day high of 6615.28 on September 15th. The most recent trading day closed strongly near its intraday high of 6619.62, indicating sustained buying pressure.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reinforces this powerful momentum, having risen from 58.28 to 69.99 over the last seven days. This surge in RSI confirms strong buying interest but simultaneously positions the index at the threshold of overbought territory. This suggests that while the bullish momentum is unequivocal, a near-term pause or consolidation is increasingly plausible as the market digests recent gains.

Immediate technical support is observed around the 6584 level, which corresponds to the previous trading day’s close and a recent cluster of price action. Further support levels are identified at 6532 (the September 10th close), with the dynamic 50-day EMA at 6373.29 providing a more substantial underlying support. As the SPX has achieved a new 90-day high, defining significant overhead resistance is challenging; the intraday high of 6619.62 serves as the immediate ceiling to watch.

A continuation of the rally beyond 6619.62 is likely, driven by the prevailing strong trend and upward momentum. However, the elevated RSI introduces a plausible risk of a near-term pullback or a period of consolidation, possibly retesting the 6584 support. There is a roughly even chance for the SPX to engage in sideways movement within a range, perhaps between 6584 and 6619, to alleviate the overbought condition without a significant price reversal. Sentiment appears broadly optimistic, fueled by the persistent uptrend and accelerating price action, though the high RSI warrants cautious monitoring for signs of short-term exhaustion.