Daily Market Technical Analysis

Market Overview

The market exhibits a predominantly positive trend over the past month, with large-cap indices outperforming and volatility significantly declining. SPX Percentage Price Oscillators (PPOs) across all timeframes show synchronous uptrends, indicating a likely continuation of upward momentum. However, a critical divergence is observed as S&P 500 breadth contracts while the index’s EMA rises, suggesting increased risk for the short-term trend’s sustainability. With the SPX Relative Strength Index elevated, there is a roughly even chance of near-term consolidation or a minor pullback. Longer-duration bonds show sustained upward momentum, while a roughly even chance exists for continued broad sector strength or sector-specific consolidation amidst mixed relative performance for small-cap and tech indices. Crypto assets display high volatility, with a roughly even chance of sustaining gains or experiencing corrections.

Market Indices

Here is a technical analysis of the provided market data:

Recent Market Performance and Breadth (Weekly & Monthly) The market demonstrated a mixed but predominantly positive trend in the week ending 2025-09-12. Large-cap indices (OEF: 1.93%, QQQ: 1.83%, SPX: 1.58%) notably outperformed smaller caps (IWM: 0.25%, MDY: -0.36%, IJR: -0.54%). Weekly breadth was selective, with 18 daily advances versus 12 declines, indicating some segments led the market while others lagged. Over the past 30 days, all analyzed indices posted net positive gains, with IWM leading at 9.07%. Monthly breadth was broadly positive, recording 105 daily advances against 75 declines, which suggests a generally robust underlying market structure.

Volatility (VIX) Analysis The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) experienced a significant decline over the 30-day period, falling from 20.38 on August 1st to 14.76 on September 12th. This substantial reduction in implied volatility suggests diminishing investor fear and increased market complacency. Despite mixed daily VIX movements this past week, including a notable drop on September 11th, its current lower level near 14.76 reinforces a reduced volatility environment. This trend provides a likely indication of continued market stability, supporting the observed equity gains.

Outlook and Alternative Scenarios In summary, the technical data indicates a positive market trend over the last month, supported by broad participation and declining volatility. Recent divergence shows large-cap indices outperforming smaller indices, which merits close monitoring for potential rotational shifts. There is a moderate probability that the current large-cap led upward momentum will persist. An alternative, less probable scenario, is a volatility rebound should this sectoral divergence intensify or new uncertainties emerge, challenging the current market complacency.

Tech Sector Analysis

Here is a technical analysis of the QQQ/SPY ratio based solely on the provided data:

The relative performance of the technology-heavy NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) against the broader S&P 500 (SPY) indicates a period of recent outperformance following a monthly decline. Over the past week, from September 5th to September 12th, the QQQ/SPY ratio increased from approximately 0.8900 to 0.8923. This suggests QQQ exhibited mild outperformance against SPY during this specific five-trading-day window. Given the modest gain and the context of broader price action, it is a roughly even chance that this short-term outperformance continues in the immediate few trading sessions, as the ratio did not decisively break out of its recent range.

Analyzing the past month, from August 12th to September 12th, reveals a different picture. The ratio has generally trended downwards, retreating from its 90-day high of 0.9025 recorded on August 12th, to the current level of 0.8923. This represents a period where QQQ significantly underperformed SPY for a sustained duration. This monthly decline followed a substantial rally from the 90-day low of 0.8612 on May 7th, where the ratio demonstrated strong outperformance by QQQ leading into mid-August. The current ratio stands near the midpoint of this 90-day range, with no clear indication of a definitive reversal from the monthly downtrend.

The ratio’s recent behavior shows it found temporary support around the 0.8850-0.8900 range in early September, bouncing upwards from 0.8855 on September 3rd. While the upward move in the past week is positive for QQQ relative strength, the overall momentum from the August 12th peak remains negative. There is a roughly even chance that the ratio could re-test the lower bounds of its early September range around 0.8850, especially if the current upward pressure dissipates. However, a sustained break above 0.8926 (September 9th’s level) would suggest strengthening relative momentum for QQQ, making further outperformance more probable.

Considering the established monthly retracement from the 90-day high, it is likely that the ratio will encounter resistance if it attempts to move significantly higher from current levels. The lack of strong consecutive closes above the 0.8920-0.8930 area suggests that buyers of QQQ relative to SPY are not yet in firm control. While the most recent week showed a positive shift, a sustained trend of QQQ outperformance appears unlikely without a clearer pattern of higher lows and higher highs developing above the 0.8950 mark.

IWM vs. SPY

As a Chartered Market Technician with 15+ years of experience, this analysis focuses exclusively on the provided IWM/SPY ratio data to evaluate relative performance and potential trends.

The IWM/SPY ratio, reflecting the Russell 2000’s relative performance against the S&P 500, shows contrasting short-term signals. Over the past week (September 8-12, 2025), the ratio declined from approximately 0.3672 to 0.3625, signifying roughly 1.28% IWM underperformance. Conversely, the monthly perspective (August 12-September 12, 2025) shows the ratio increasing from approximately 0.3529 to 0.3625, reflecting IWM outperformance of roughly 2.73%. This divergence indicates a recent shift favoring SPY within a broader monthly context of IWM strength.

Over the 90-day period, the IWM/SPY ratio traded within a broad range of 0.3457 (August 1, 2025) to 0.3674 (September 5, 2025). Raw data points (0.3521 on May 6 to 0.3625 on Sept 12) indicate an overall upward movement, suggesting prevailing IWM outperformance. However, the provided trend object reports the 90-day direction as “down” with “weak” strength and a -2.87% change. This direct contradiction creates significant analytical uncertainty regarding the true long-term relative trend.

Given the recent weekly underperformance, it is likely that SPY will sustain its relative strength against IWM. However, IWM’s robust monthly outperformance and the general upward bias in raw 90-day data suggest a roughly even chance of IWM resuming outperformance. The conflicting signals, particularly the contradictory trend object, introduce considerable uncertainty. Traders should monitor for confirmation, as both scenarios remain plausible.

Commodities

Here is a technical analysis of the provided market data:

The weekly performance across the examined commodities, covering September 8-12, indicates a generally positive trend, with seven of eight symbols registering gains. SLV led with a 3.02% advance, followed by CPER (2.34%) and CORN (2.11%). DBC, GLD, USO, and UGA also posted positive, albeit more modest, weekly returns. Conversely, UNG experienced a notable weekly decline of -3.27%, making it the sole laggard. Over the 30-day period, the market exhibits mixed performance. SLV and GLD show significant strength, with gains of 16.14% and 10.59% respectively, alongside positive monthly returns for CORN (5.58%), CPER (4.97%), and DBC (1.96%). UGA, USO, and UNG have recorded monthly declines of -0.88%, -0.91%, and -5.70%, respectively.

Market breadth for the last trading day, September 12, appears robustly bullish. Seven out of the eight analyzed symbols advanced, while only CPER experienced a marginal decline. This breadth, observed over a single trading session, suggests strong buying interest concentrated across a majority of these commodity-related instruments. However, the mixed monthly performance, particularly the declines in UGA, USO, and UNG, indicates that this recent positive breadth does not reflect a universal upward trend across all commodities over the longer, 30-day horizon.

Analysis of the GLD/SLV 14-day ratio presents a nuanced picture. The embedded trend object formally indicates an “up” direction with “weak” strength and a 1.13% change from its starting point (8.8472). However, a direct calculation from the earliest data point (8.8472 on August 25) to the latest (8.7485 on September 12) reveals a net decline of approximately -1.11% in the ratio. This discrepancy suggests the internal trend calculation might consider a different period or methodology. The ratio has notably retreated from its recent high of 8.9849 observed on September 9, declining to 8.7485 by September 12.

Given the mixed monthly performance, it is roughly even chance that the observed short-term positive breadth for these commodities will sustain over the coming days, particularly as the GLD/SLV ratio’s recent decline suggests a shift in relative strength favoring silver. Alternative scenarios include a continuation of the mixed long-term trend, where some commodities continue to advance while others face headwinds, or a potential broader rotation within the commodity complex. The strong daily breadth for September 12 is a positive near-term indicator, but the monthly data suggests market participants should remain vigilant for sector-specific movements rather than a uniform rally.

Bonds

Market Commentary: Fixed Income ETF Performance Review

Recent technical analysis of key fixed income Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) over the past 30 days indicates a broadly positive trend, with longer-duration bonds exhibiting stronger performance. For the trading week ending 2025-09-12, the calculated weekly percentage changes for these symbols are presented below, sorted in descending order:

Over the most recent trading week (2025-09-08 to 2025-09-12), the overall market for these bond ETFs appears to be trending higher. Four out of the five symbols advanced, suggesting a favorable, albeit mixed, sentiment toward bonds. TLT and UTHY, representing longer-duration instruments, posted the most significant gains, indicating a likely preference for longer maturities during this period. Conversely, IEI registered a slight decline, while IEF and SHY posted modest gains, consistent with their shorter to intermediate duration profiles typically showing less volatility.

Analyzing the full 30-day period, all five symbols recorded an overall positive change. TLT and UTHY led with monthly gains of approximately 4.74% and 4.64% respectively, suggesting a sustained upward momentum in the long-duration segment. IEF and IEI followed with positive changes of roughly 1.72% and 1.14%, while SHY, representing the shortest duration, gained approximately 0.86%. This pattern indicates a consistent strength in longer-dated bonds over the past month, with a diminishing positive return gradient as duration decreases.

Examining market breadth over the 30-day window, a majority of daily data points across all symbols showed advancing values. Out of 150 total daily observations, 84 were positive (advancing), 64 were negative (declining), and 2 were neutral. This breadth analysis suggests a greater number of individual daily price increases than decreases, indicating that the overall positive monthly performance is broadly supported. The prevalence of advancing days implies that the upward trend observed is likely not confined to just a few strong sessions but rather reflects a more consistent accumulation of positive momentum.

Crypto

As a Chartered Market Technician, my analysis of the provided 30-day daily percent change data for IBIT and ETHA indicates distinct performance profiles. Overall, ETHA has demonstrated a significantly higher positive trajectory over the past month, with a cumulative gain of approximately 15.69%, classified as overall higher. IBIT, while also positive, shows a more modest monthly increase of roughly 6.00%, which we assess as also overall higher. The weekly performance, sorted in descending order for each symbol, highlights periods of both strong gains and notable pullbacks.

IBIT Weekly % Change (Descending):

• Week of Sep 8: +4.61%
• Week of Sep 1: +3.26%
• Week of Aug 4: +2.98%
• Week of Aug 11: +0.62%
• Week of Aug 18: -0.14%
• Week of Aug 1: -3.17%
• Week of Aug 25: -7.34%

ETHA Weekly % Change (Descending):

• Week of Aug 4: +15.41%
• Week of Aug 18: +11.15%
• Week of Aug 11: +7.95%
• Week of Sep 8: +7.79%
• Week of Sep 1: +0.10%
• Week of Aug 1: -6.23%
• Week of Aug 25: -10.33%

IBIT’s weekly performance exhibits a mixed pattern. Following a significant negative week in late August (-7.34% for the week of Aug 25), the asset has shown a strong rebound, particularly in the most recent weeks (Sep 1 and Sep 8, gaining +3.26% and +4.61% respectively). This recent upward momentum suggests a likely shift in short-term sentiment toward positive. However, the presence of a negative weekly close in mid-August (-0.14%) and the prior substantial decline indicate a degree of underlying volatility, implying that while recent performance is strong, an alternative scenario of renewed consolidation or minor pullback remains plausible in the near term.

ETHA, comparatively, displays more pronounced weekly swings but with a generally stronger positive bias. Its highest weekly gain was a substantial +15.41% (Week of Aug 4), and it delivered three other weeks of gains exceeding +7%. Despite these strong uptrends, ETHA also experienced a sharp weekly decline of -10.33% (Week of Aug 25), echoing IBIT’s dip but with greater magnitude. The most recent week for ETHA also closed strongly positive at +7.79%. Given this pattern, it is likely that ETHA will continue to exhibit higher volatility than IBIT, with a roughly even chance of either sustaining its current upward trajectory or experiencing significant price corrections, as demonstrated by its historical weekly movements.

Magnificent 7 & Friends

As a Chartered Market Technician with over 15 years of experience, I offer the following analysis based strictly on the provided daily percentage change data.

The 30-day analysis indicates mixed but generally upward trends. Monthly, six of ten symbols (TSLA, AAPL, GOOGL, NVDA, ANET, AVGO) gained, with TSLA, GOOGL, and AVGO each exceeding 20% cumulative appreciation. Conversely, AMZN, MSFT, META, and CRWV concluded the month lower. The most recent week shows improved sentiment; six symbols registered cumulative gains. CRWV’s remarkable +24% weekly surge, contrasting its monthly decline, strongly suggests a recent momentum reversal. This short-term strength may challenge prior downtrends for underperformers, hinting at a potential broader market shift.

Market breadth over 30 days fluctuated, with 16 days favoring advancers and 11 favoring decliners, suggesting roughly even daily chances for either outcome. Yet, concentrated weakness was significant, with four days seeing all ten symbols decline. Recent weekly breadth improved, with advancing symbols outnumbering decliners on four of five days. Volatility varies sharply; CRWV, for instance, exhibited a -20.83% loss and a +16.88% gain within the month, while ANET saw a +17.49% gain. Such pronounced swings probably indicate elevated speculative interest and stock-specific drivers are paramount.

The matrix of daily percentage changes underscores disparate individual performance. MSFT displayed comparatively lower volatility (max +2.20%, min -2.55%) versus TSLA (max +8.03%), GOOGL (max +9.14%), and AMZN (min -8.27%), which experienced much larger movements. This divergent volatility profile implies a uniform market forecast is unlikely. Investors should probably anticipate continued differential performance and heightened price swings, especially among more volatile constituents. Understanding these individual dynamics remains crucial for effective market navigation.

S&P 500 Sector Breadth

Technical Market Commentary: Sector Performance and Breadth Analysis

An analysis of the provided daily percentage change data for the last 30 trading days indicates a generally positive market trend, with a notable shift in leadership. Over the full monthly period, the aggregate performance across the eleven tracked symbols is overwhelmingly higher, with ten symbols recording positive cumulative returns. The weekly sum, representing the last five trading days, also appears predominantly higher across sectors. This broad participation suggests a robust underlying market condition over the observed timeframe.

Market breadth metrics reinforce this optimistic assessment. On a monthly basis, ten out of eleven symbols advanced, indicating very strong positive breadth. For the recent weekly period, breadth remains positive with nine symbols advancing and only two declining. This consistently broad participation across most sectors implies underlying market strength and suggests that a widespread uptrend is likely sustainable, though daily fluctuations are evident.

Reviewing sector performance, offensive sectors (XLK, XLY, XLF, XLI, XLB, XLE) generally demonstrated strong positive momentum both weekly and monthly, with XLI being the sole offensive decliner over the monthly period. Defensive sectors (XLU, XLP, XLV, XLRE) also posted solid gains across the monthly timeframe, with all four advancing. However, a closer look at the weekly performance suggests some rotation; while most offensive sectors continued their advance, XLB notably declined. Conversely, defensive XLU, XLRE, and XLV showed positive weekly performance, with only XLP declining. This mixed weekly picture, following broad monthly gains, indicates a roughly even chance of continued broad strength or potential sector-specific consolidation.

The prevailing market sentiment, based on the observed sector performance, appears to be cautiously optimistic or “risk-on.” The consistent advancement of most offensive sectors over the monthly period, coupled with generally strong weekly gains, points to investor willingness to assume risk. Although defensive sectors also performed well, the leadership from technology, consumer discretionary, and financials suggests a preference for growth-oriented assets. However, the varied performance on the most recent day (2025-09-12), with a mix of gains and losses across both offensive and defensive categories, indicates that a shift to more defensive positioning is currently unlikely but warrants ongoing monitoring.

Daily Percentage Change Matrix (2025-09-12), Sorted Descending:

2. PPO Market Model Market Commentary: SPX PPO Trend Analysis

Our technical analysis of the SPX using Percentage Price Oscillators (PPO) across different timeframes for the past 30 days, with emphasis on recent movements, yields the following:

The Short Term PPO (1,5 day) has exhibited significant volatility but shows a clear upward trajectory since early September. After dipping near zero on September 3rd, it surged to 0.8169 by September 11th, moderating slightly to 0.5416 on September 12th. This recent upward impulse, despite Friday’s minor pullback, suggests that positive short-term momentum is likely to persist as the value remains well above zero. The Medium Term PPO (13,21 day) reinforces this view, showing a more consistent, steady ascent from 0.3294 on September 3rd to 0.4640 on September 12th. This sustained rise above the zero line indicates a developing bullish momentum in the intermediate timeframe, making a continuation of this upward trend likely.

The Long Term PPO (21,34 day) also supports an upward bias. While the indicator has gradually declined from an early August high of 1.0596, it has recently reversed course, climbing from 0.6978 on September 9th to 0.7526 on September 12th. It remains significantly positive throughout the entire period, suggesting robust underlying bullish sentiment. The synchronous recent uptrends across all three PPO timeframes indicate a likely strengthening of SPX momentum. A continuation of this overall bullish alignment across short, medium, and long-term PPOs is likely, indicating a period of upward price pressure. However, the previous long-term PPO decline suggests the current strength may represent a rebound within a broader consolidation, with a roughly even chance of consolidation or a renewed downtrend if momentum wanes across the shorter-term indicators.

3. Equity Breadth

Good day traders, as a Chartered Market Technician, I’ve analyzed the provided market data focusing on internal market strength and short-term trend dynamics.

The SPXA50R, indicating S&P 500 members above their 50-day moving average, exhibited a notable expansion from approximately 47% on August 1st to a peak near 74.5% by August 22nd. This robust breadth initially likely provided underlying support. However, a significant contraction followed, with the indicator declining to roughly 61.4% by September 12th. This recent three-week trend suggests diminishing market participation in the advance. Notably, the SPXA200R data was not provided, precluding any assessment of long-term market breadth from this analysis.

Conversely, the EMA_20_DAY for the S&P 500 has maintained a consistent upward trajectory throughout the entire 30-day period. Rising from approximately 6288 on August 1st to 6478 by September 12th, this sustained increase strongly suggests the S&P 500 index itself has been in a clear short-term uptrend. The continuous positive slope of the EMA indicates ongoing positive momentum for the index, seemingly undisturbed by the concurrent breadth contraction in the SPXA50R. No deceleration is yet evident in the EMA’s ascent based solely on this data.

The observed divergence, where the S&P 500’s short-term EMA continues upward while SPXA50R breadth contracts, is a critical technical signal. This pattern suggests the current uptrend is becoming less broad-based, potentially driven by fewer, larger components. It is likely that continued breadth deterioration could lead to a deceleration or reversal of the EMA_20_DAY:SPX’s upward momentum. An alternative, albeit less probable, scenario is that breadth temporarily consolidates before re-expanding. However, the present technical landscape indicates increased risk for the sustainability of the current short-term index trend.

4. SPX Daily

The S&P 500 (SPX) has demonstrated a robust uptrend over the past three months, with price advancing consistently from approximately 5600 in early May to a recent close of 6584.29. This sustained upward movement is reinforced by the behavior of the Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs); the 50-day EMA has remained consistently above the 200-day EMA, establishing a “golden cross” configuration throughout the period. Furthermore, the price has generally maintained above both EMAs, indicating strong control by buyers across intermediate and long-term horizons, and suggesting a high degree of underlying bullish momentum.

In the past month, the SPX continued its upward trajectory, pushing from the mid-6400s in mid-August to establish new highs. The current close of 6584.29 and an intraday high of 6600.21 on September 12 underscore this recent strength. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has concurrently risen to roughly 67.5. While not yet firmly in the overbought zone (typically above 70), this elevated level suggests that short-term buying pressure might be stretched, implying a roughly even chance of either a period of consolidation or a minor pullback in the immediate future to alleviate this condition.

Identifying key levels, immediate resistance is established by the recent all-time high at 6600.21, with the 6584 area also acting as a minor overhead challenge from recent closes. Primary support levels are likely to be found around the consolidation zone of 6440-6460 from late August. Below that, the upward-sloping 50-day EMA, currently positioned at 6363.41, is expected to serve as dynamic support. The 200-day EMA, at 6003.24, represents a significant long-term support level, which the market is unlikely to test without a substantial shift in current momentum.

Considering future price action, a bullish case suggests the SPX is likely to attempt a decisive break above 6600, supported by the strong underlying trend. Minor pullbacks, especially to the 50-day EMA, could be perceived as buying opportunities. A bearish case would emerge if the SPX fails to sustain above current resistance or breaks below the 6440-6460 support, potentially leading to a deeper correction toward the 50-day EMA. Conversely, a neutral case presents a roughly even chance of the market entering a period of sideways consolidation below 6600, allowing the RSI to cool before any potential resumption of the uptrend.

Technically derived sentiment indicates strong underlying investor confidence, driven by the robust multi-month uptrend and the consistent bullish alignment of the moving averages. This persistent buying pressure highlights a market where dips are bought. However, the elevated RSI reading suggests growing short-term bullish exuberance, which could paradoxically trigger profit-taking and a temporary tempering of market enthusiasm as traders re-evaluate positions at these extended levels.