Daily Market Technical Analysis

Market Overview

The market exhibits underlying weakness, especially in small and mid-cap sectors, despite large-cap technology resilience and a subdued VIX, indicating a low probability of immediate significant volatility. The S&P 500 maintains a strong, established bullish trend, achieving new highs, with medium and long-term PPO indicators almost certainly confirming entrenched positive momentum. QQQ is likely to continue outperforming SPY, while the IWM/SPY ratio is likely to remain in a narrow, weak range. Commodity markets show broadly positive sentiment, which is likely to continue, contrasting with a high probability of widespread selling across the universally negative bond market. A decisive SPX breakout above 6600.21 is likely, though a period of consolidation at these levels is roughly an even chance as the RSI is elevated.

Market Indices

As a Chartered Market Technician, my analysis of the provided market data for September 12, 2025, reveals a market characterized by divergence and underlying weakness.

Market Breadth and Divergence: On September 12, 2025, market indicators presented a mixed to negative picture, with an overall aggregated daily percentage change of approximately -1.59% across the provided symbols. Market breadth was notably weak, with only two symbols advancing (QQQ, +0.34%; OEF, +0.20%) against four declining (IJR, -0.86%; IWM, -0.61%; MDY, -0.66%; SPX, -0.0023%) and one flat (VIX). This 2:4 advance/decline ratio suggests a likely underlying weakness, especially in small and mid-cap sectors, while large-cap technology and top S&P 100 stocks showed resilience. This divergence indicates probable capital rotation favoring larger, more established segments.

Volatility Analysis (VIX): The VIX registered a 0.00% daily change, closing at 14.76. Reviewing the 7-day candle data, the VIX has generally drifted lower from a close of 15.30 on September 4 to the current 14.76. This sustained downward trend implies a low probability of an immediate, significant increase in overall market volatility. Its current level near the lower end of its recent range indicates a roughly even chance of continued consolidation or a modest uptick if current market declines persist across more indices.

Concluding Technical Posture and Outlook: The technical posture suggests underlying market weakness, primarily impacting small and mid-cap segments, despite observed strength in select large-cap growth areas. The adverse breadth and negative aggregate change are concerning from a broad market perspective. However, the subdued VIX suggests an absence of immediate panic among market participants. If this divergence between advancing and declining segments persists, it is likely that broader market headwinds will continue. Alternatively, a sudden reversal in large-cap leadership could trigger increased volatility, though this scenario is currently less probable given the VIX’s recent trend.

Tech Sector Analysis

CMT Market Commentary: QQQ/SPY Relative Performance

Analysis of the 14-day QQQ/SPY ratio data indicates a general strengthening of the NASDAQ-100’s (QQQ) relative performance against the S&P 500 (SPY) over the observed period. The ratio initiated at approximately 0.8877 on August 25th, experiencing a dip to a low of 0.8834 by September 2nd. Following this, the ratio underwent a notable recovery, ascending to a high of 0.8926 on September 9th. While there was a slight pullback in the subsequent two days, the ratio demonstrated a strong recovery on September 12th, closing at 0.8924, very close to its 14-day peak. This recent price action suggests QQQ has regained relative strength compared to the broader market.

Given the strong close near the 14-day high, it is likely that QQQ will continue to exhibit outperformance relative to SPY in the immediate term. The recovery from the early September low to the current level suggests sustained buying interest in the technology-heavy components represented by QQQ. Traders should monitor the 0.8926 level, which represents the recent high point for the ratio. A sustained break above this level would provide a strong indication of continued relative strength and further confirm the upward trajectory in QQQ’s outperformance.

However, alternative scenarios should be considered. There is a roughly even chance that the ratio could encounter resistance around the 0.8926 peak, potentially leading to a period of consolidation or minor underperformance for QQQ. A failure to advance beyond this level, particularly if followed by a close below the recent bounce-off point around 0.8890, would suggest a weakening of the current relative uptrend. While not immediately apparent from the latest data point, a more significant decline below the 0.8834 support level would signal a likely shift towards SPY outperformance, though this appears unlikely given the current momentum.

IWM vs. SPY

Market Commentary: IWM/SPY Relative Performance (14-Day Analysis)

Over the past 14 days, from August 25 to September 12, 2025, the IWM/SPY ratio has exhibited a distinctly sideways and weak trend, signifying a period of market indecision between the Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&P 500 (SPY). The ratio remained confined within a very narrow range, from a low of 0.36166 to a high of 0.36735, accompanied by exceptionally low volatility. The aggregated trend data explicitly confirms this by classifying the movement as “sideways” with “weak” strength and noting a -0.24% change from the period’s lowest ratio. The latest recorded ratio on September 12, at 0.36254, sits marginally above the absolute low but is well within this established consolidation, indicating no sustained outperformance or underperformance by IWM against SPY. This persistent lack of directional momentum, with the ratio tightly oscillating around its 0.36425 average, points to a market seeking equilibrium and awaiting new catalysts.

Based on these technical observations, it is likely the IWM/SPY ratio will continue to trade within its current narrow range in the immediate term. A decisive breakout, which would signal a new trend of outperformance or underperformance by either index, appears unlikely without a significant shift in market dynamics, particularly given the low volatility and weak trend strength. There is a roughly even chance the ratio could test either the upper or lower boundaries of this established range, reflecting the prevailing balance of forces. Market participants should anticipate continued short-term neutrality for this critical relative performance metric.

Commodities

Market Commentary: Technical Analysis of Commodities (September 12, 2025)

Commodity markets exhibited a generally positive session on September 12, 2025, with robust market breadth. Seven of the eight analyzed symbols advanced, while only one declined. The daily percent changes, sorted in descending order, are as follows: SLV (+1.77%), CORN (+1.48%), DBC (+0.56%), UGA (+0.42%), USO (+0.40%), UNG (+0.36%), GLD (+0.34%), and CPER (-0.16%). The aggregate daily change across this basket of commodities totaled approximately +5.17%, indicating an overall upward momentum for the group. The strong predominance of advancing symbols suggests a likely continuation of positive sentiment for these commodity classes in the immediate term. CPER’s modest decline, however, could be an early indicator of potential underperformance in industrial metals and warrants close monitoring for divergence from the broader commodity strength.

Analyzing the GLD/SLV 14-day ratio reveals a nuanced picture. The overall trend for this period is identified as a weak upward movement, with a reported change of approximately +1.13%. However, the latest trading day (September 12) saw a notable decline in the ratio, falling from 8.873 to 8.749. This most recent value represents the 14-day low and positions the ratio below its 14-day average of 8.867. Such a daily drop, coupled with the ratio reaching its low point within the observed period, suggests a shift in near-term relative strength, with silver currently outperforming gold. Given this recent deceleration and the ratio’s current level, further outperformance by silver against gold is a roughly even chance in the immediate future. This could potentially challenge the established weak upward trend if sustained. No data for the RATIO:GLD/SLV:30 indicator was available for analysis.

Bonds

As a Chartered Market Technician, I have analyzed the provided market data for DAILY_PCT_CHANGE:TLT:1day, DAILY_PCT_CHANGE:UTHY:1day, DAILY_PCT_CHANGE:IEF:1day, DAILY_PCT_CHANGE:IEI:1day, and DAILY_PCT_CHANGE:SHY:1day.

The provided daily percentage change data for TLT, UTHY, IEF, IEI, and SHY reveals a universally negative trend across these symbols. Sorted in descending order (least negative to most negative), the changes are: SHY (-0.01%), IEI (-0.17%), IEF (-0.31%), TLT (-0.34%), and UTHY (-0.36%). Market breadth for this group is decisively negative, with no advancing symbols (0) and five declining symbols (5). This 0:5 ratio suggests a high probability that sellers dominated trading activity across this entire basket of assets during the observed period, indicating broad-based weakness.

Summing the individual daily percentage changes indicates an aggregate decline of approximately -1.20% for this collective set of securities, clearly classifying the overall movement as lower. The uniform nature of the decline, ranging from marginal for SHY to more significant for UTHY, suggests pervasive bearish pressure. It is likely that this group of assets, often associated with fixed income, experienced widespread selling. The magnitude of the total decline, while not extreme for a single day, is consistent with a clear downward trend for the period under review, rather than isolated weakness.

Despite the universal decline, a closer look reveals a moderate probability that the shorter-duration bonds (SHY, IEI) exhibited relatively greater resilience compared to the longer-duration instruments (TLT, UTHY, IEF), as indicated by their smaller percentage drops. This relative performance divergence, even within an overall negative context, might suggest varying sensitivities to underlying market forces affecting these assets. However, with data limited to a single day, it is difficult to determine if this is an emerging trend. A scenario involving mixed movements or selective declines would present a more ambiguous picture, but the current data points to consistent underperformance across all analyzed symbols.

Crypto

Our analysis focuses exclusively on the provided single-day performance data for IBIT and ETHA, examining their daily percentage changes for September 12, 2025. Based on the available snapshot, ETHA exhibited a notably stronger gain compared to IBIT. The performance matrix, sorted in descending order of daily percentage change, clearly illustrates this: ETHA recorded a gain of 5.618%, while IBIT registered a gain of 2.280%. This initial view provides a clear, albeit exceptionally limited, indication of individual asset momentum for the specified trading day, showing positive movement in both instruments.

Considering the aggregated movement for these two specific symbols, the summed daily percentage change points to a robust overall upward trajectory. The total cumulative daily gain for both assets combined amounts to 7.899%. This significant cumulative positive movement suggests that the prevailing sentiment for these particular assets was likely bullish for the observed trading day. However, it is crucial to recognize that this observation is derived from a singularly limited data set, comprising only one daily data point for each symbol, thus providing no context for historical volatility or sustained momentum.

While the strong positive daily movements in both IBIT and ETHA are evident, the extremely narrow data window (a single day for each) significantly constrains any estimative confidence regarding future direction. Based solely on this isolated data, it is likely that these assets experienced strong, positive individual momentum. Nevertheless, drawing conclusions about established trends or making predictions about subsequent movements is highly uncertain. An alternative scenario, such as a sharp reversal or period of consolidation, remains roughly an even chance without further sequential data to confirm a developing trend or discern any underlying patterns.

Magnificent 7 & Friends

As a Chartered Market Technician, my analysis of the provided daily percentage change data for these ten symbols focuses strictly on the internal technical patterns observed.

The aggregate daily percentage change for this specific group of ten symbols indicates a marginally negative collective performance, totaling approximately -0.53%. Despite this near-neutral sum, market breadth analysis reveals a somewhat mixed picture, with a slight positive skew among this specific cohort; six symbols advanced, while four declined. This 6:4 advancer-to-decliner ratio suggests that while more individual stocks saw gains, the significant magnitude of declines in specific instances, most notably ANET’s -8.18%, effectively offset cumulative positive momentum. A detailed review highlights substantial dispersion: TSLA demonstrated a significant advance of 8.03%, acting as a principal positive driver, while ANET’s pronounced decline was the primary detractor. Other notable movers included positive contributions from MSFT (1.78%) and AAPL (1.77%), contrasted by declines in CRWV (-3.22%) and AMZN (-1.11%). This distribution suggests the market’s internal health for this specific group is not uniformly strong; it is roughly an even chance that the next session will see similar, concentrated, divergent movements rather than a broad, uniform trend, given the current technical patterns.

To provide a clearer perspective on individual performance, the daily percentage changes for these symbols are summarized below, sorted in descending order:

This matrix underscores the critical influence of TSLA’s outperformance and ANET’s underperformance on the group’s overall neutral aggregate. The data patterns primarily suggest a mixed technical landscape, where selective trading opportunities, rather than broad momentum, were the dominant theme for this session among these specified symbols.

S&P 500 Sector Breadth

As a Chartered Market Technician with over 15 years of experience, this analysis focuses strictly on the provided daily percentage change data for key S&P 500 sectors.

Analysis of single-day percentage changes across eleven S&P 500 sectors suggests a market with a net negative bias. The aggregate sum of daily changes registers approximately -1.29%, indicating an overall downward drift. Market breadth is decidedly negative, with 8 out of 11 sectors declining and only 3 advancing. This imbalance strongly implies a broader underlying weakness across the represented sectors, making a widespread bullish sentiment unlikely for this period based solely on the provided data.

The sector performance matrix, detailed below, illustrates notable dispersion. Utilities (XLU) led advancers at +0.998%, followed by Communication Services (XLC) at +0.990% and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) at +0.603%. Healthcare (XLV) posted the most significant decline at -1.161%, with Materials (XLB) and Industrials (XLI) also experiencing substantial drawdowns. This selective strength amidst broad weakness indicates capital is flowing into specific areas rather than participating in a generalized market move.

Sorted Daily Percent Changes: XLU: +0.998% XLC: +0.990% XLY: +0.603% XLK: -0.114% XLF: -0.130% XLRE: -0.236% XLE: -0.405% XLP: -0.533% XLI: -0.584% XLB: -0.715% XLV: -1.161%

Regarding market sentiment and potential rotation, the picture is ambiguous. Among the three advancing sectors, one is defensive (XLU) and one is offensive (XLY), with XLC uncategorized by the provided framework. Declining sectors predominantly comprise offensive names (5 out of 6 specified offensive sectors), alongside three defensive ones. While XLU’s robust performance might suggest a marginal tilt towards risk aversion, XLY’s concurrent rise and declines in other defensive sectors render a clear, predominant rotation into defensive assets unlikely. Overall sentiment appears cautiously mixed, leaning slightly negative due to broad declines.

2. PPO Market Model As a Chartered Market Technician with over 15 years of experience, I’ve analyzed the provided SPX PPO indicators to identify prevailing trends across various timeframes. This analysis relies exclusively on the presented technical data, using rigorous estimative language as per ICD-203 guidelines.

The Short Term PPO (1,5 day) has exhibited significant volatility over the past seven days. After an initial decline, the indicator rallied strongly from a September 5th low of 0.1500, peaking at 0.8169 on September 11th. However, the most recent data point on September 12th shows a notable decline to 0.5416. This recent downturn strongly suggests that immediate upward momentum has likely waned, indicating a potential short-term retrace from its peak.

In contrast, the Medium Term PPO (13,21 day) has demonstrated a clear and consistent upward trajectory. Steadily climbing from 0.3443 on September 5th to 0.4640 on September 12th, this sustained rise indicates that positive momentum is almost certainly entrenched in the medium term. Given this persistent strength, a reversal in this timeframe is unlikely without further compelling evidence emerging in subsequent trading days.

The Long Term PPO (21,34 day) initially showed a modest decline but has since reversed course, exhibiting a robust increase from 0.6978 on September 9th to 0.7526 on September 12th. This recent upward movement strongly suggests a reassertion of long-term positive momentum. While the short-term indicator signals a potential pause, the dominant uptrends in both medium and long-term PPOs indicate that the overall market direction is likely upward. There is a roughly even chance the short-term pullback represents a temporary consolidation rather than a trend reversal, supported by the stronger, longer-term signals.

Here is a summary matrix of the observed trends:

3. Equity Breadth

As a Chartered Market Technician with over 15 years of experience, I’ve analyzed the provided market data for S&P 500 breadth and its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

Analysis of S&P 500 breadth, measured by SPXA50R (percentage of members above 50-day MA), shows an initial decline from 62.87% on September 4th to 56.29% by September 10th, indicating short-term contraction in participation. This was followed by a significant surge to 65.87% on September 11th, demonstrating renewed underlying strength, before a slight retracement to 61.48% on September 12th. Data for SPXA200R (percentage of members above 200-day MA) was not provided and is therefore excluded from this analysis.

Concurrently, the S&P 500’s 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA_20_DAY) maintained a clear, consistent upward trend, rising steadily from 6429.09 to 6478.42 over the seven-day period. This persistent ascent strongly suggests the intermediate-term price trend for the S&P 500 remains positive. The robust rebound in SPXA50R on September 11th provides significant technical reinforcement for this ongoing uptrend, indicating broad constituent participation and supporting the EMA’s sustained upward trajectory.

Given EMA_20_DAY’s consistent upward momentum and SPXA50R’s recent strong recovery, the EMA_20_DAY is likely to continue its upward trend in the immediate future. Internal market strength, after a brief period of weakness, appears reasserted. An alternative scenario considers that the minor SPXA50R retracement on September 12th might hint at moderating breadth enthusiasm. However, based solely on this limited data, it is roughly an even chance whether this slight pullback signals potential consolidation or a transient pause before continued broad participation. The overall evidence heavily favors the existing positive trend.

4. SPX Daily

As a Chartered Market Technician with over 15 years of experience, the following analysis is based strictly on the provided SPX technical data for the last 90 days, with a focus on recent price action.

The SPX has exhibited robust upward momentum over the past seven trading days, advancing consistently from approximately 6502 on September 4th to 6584 on September 11th. On September 12th, the index achieved a new all-time high of 6600.21 before closing marginally lower at 6584.29. This recent price action suggests some initial profit-taking at peak levels or a brief pause in the rapid ascent. The SPX continues to trade well above both its upward-sloping 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 6363.41 and the 200-day EMA at 6003.24, unequivocally confirming a strong, established bullish trend.

Current momentum, as indicated by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), has climbed to 67.51. This elevated reading signifies substantial recent buying pressure. While not yet in the classic overbought territory (above 70), its proximity suggests that the recent rapid ascent may be reaching a mature stage where a period of consolidation or a minor pullback is likely in the near term as market participants digest gains. Immediate technical resistance is established at the recent all-time high of 6600.21. Near-term support is observed around 6580, with a more substantial technical support zone at 6500-6510, reflecting a prior consolidation level. The rising 50-day EMA at 6363.41 offers robust dynamic support further below.

Considering future price action, a decisive breakout above the 6600.21 resistance is likely, driven by the strong established trend and upward-sloping EMAs. Conversely, a failure to clear 6600.21, followed by a break below 6580, makes a retest of the 6500-6510 support area probable; a further decline towards the 50-day EMA is possible if profit-taking intensifies. There is a roughly even chance for the SPX to consolidate between 6580 and 6600, allowing the RSI to moderate without significant price depreciation. Overall technical sentiment, primarily driven by sustained higher highs and robust moving average support, remains distinctly bullish.