Daily Market Technical Analysis

Market Overview

Executive Summary:

Market indices show divergent performance, with large-cap growth demonstrating resilience while small and mid-cap segments experienced notable declines, contributing to overall negative breadth. The S&P 500 maintains robust upward momentum, with rising intermediate and long-term moving averages supporting a probable bullish trend and likely continued appreciation. However, short-term momentum indicators suggest a roughly even chance of consolidation or near-term weakness. The tech-heavy QQQ is likely to continue outperforming SPY, while small-cap IWM is likely to exhibit a negative bias relative to SPY. Commodities present a likely constructive near-term outlook, led by silver, contrasting with a probable continuation of downward momentum across fixed-income assets. Crypto assets display a highly likely positive movement, although the Magnificent 7 group and broader sectors show mixed performance with a roughly even chance of continued divergence.

Market Indices

Technical Market Commentary (CMT, 15+ years experience)

Current market analysis reveals a mixed to slightly negative sentiment across major indices for the most recent trading day, with notable divergences in performance. Examining the daily percentage changes, we observe two advancing symbols (QQQ: +0.340%, OEF: +0.202%), four declining symbols (SPX: -0.002%, IWM: -0.609%, MDY: -0.662%, IJR: -0.862%), and one flat symbol (VIX: 0.000%). The overall sum of these daily percentage changes is -1.593%, indicating a slight net decline for this basket of market representatives. Market breadth for this specific set of symbols is negative, with declining symbols outnumbering advancers by a 2:4 ratio, suggesting a lack of broad-based participation in any upward momentum.

A deeper look into the performance hierarchy reveals a distinct segmentation. Large-cap growth (QQQ) and large-cap (OEF) sectors demonstrated resilience, registering positive gains. In contrast, small-cap (IJR) and mid-cap (MDY, IWM) segments experienced more significant declines, with IJR exhibiting the steepest percentage drop. The S&P 500 (SPX) remained nearly flat, registering a negligible decline of 0.002%. This divergence suggests that while broader market indices like the SPX are holding steady, the underlying market structure, particularly across different capitalization sizes, is experiencing varied pressures, with smaller market segments facing greater selling pressure.

The Volatility Index (VIX) daily percentage change was precisely 0.000% for the latest day, indicating no change from the prior session’s close. Over the preceding seven trading days, the VIX has generally shown a downward trend, declining from 15.30 to 14.76. Specifically, the VIX closed at 15.30 on September 4th and subsequently retreated to its current level of 14.76, where it has remained stable for the last two sessions. This sustained decline in the VIX over the past week, despite mixed equity performance, suggests a likely reduction in overall market anxiety or an absence of new, significant fear-inducing catalysts within this timeframe.

Considering the technical patterns, the relative strength in QQQ and OEF, coupled with the underperformance of mid and small caps, suggests that market leadership is consolidating into larger, potentially more liquid segments. The flat VIX on the most recent day, following a multi-day decline, implies that market participants are not currently pricing in an immediate surge in volatility. However, the negative market breadth and the overall net decline in this specific basket of indices suggest that the path of least resistance for the broader market, outside of select large-cap and growth areas, is likely to remain challenged in the very near term. It is roughly an even chance that this divergence could persist, or that underperforming segments might attempt to catch up if broader market sentiment improves.

Tech Sector Analysis

Here is a technical analysis of the QQQ/SPY ratio over the past 14 days, suitable for retail traders:

Relative Performance Trend: QQQ vs. SPY Over the past 14 days, the QQQ/SPY ratio, which tracks the relative performance of the technology-heavy NASDAQ-100 against the broader S&P 500, has demonstrated a weak, sideways trend. The ratio has fluctuated within a narrow range, bounded by a low of approximately 0.8834 on September 2nd and a high of 0.8926 on September 9th. The overall volatility during this period has been exceptionally low, indicating a general equilibrium in relative strength between QQQ and SPY without a sustained directional bias across the entire two-week span.

Emerging Outperformance and Momentum Shift Despite the overarching sideways trend, a closer examination of the most recent price action reveals an emerging bias towards QQQ outperformance. Following its low on September 2nd, the QQQ/SPY ratio established a clear upward trajectory, culminating in a closing value of approximately 0.8924 on September 12th. This latest reading positions the ratio firmly at the upper end of its 14-day trading range. This recent momentum suggests a strengthening of QQQ’s relative performance against SPY within the defined period, indicating increasing short-term relative strength.

Probabilistic Outlook and Alternative Scenarios Based on the ratio’s current positioning near its 14-day high and the observed upward momentum, it is likely that QQQ will continue to outperform SPY in the immediate future. The technical data suggests this recent relative strength could persist. However, an alternative scenario involves a rejection from this upper boundary, leading to a reversion towards the 14-day average of approximately 0.8884. In such a case, the probability of continued outperformance would become a roughly even chance, as the previously defined weak, sideways trend might reassert itself, neutralizing the recent bullish momentum.

IWM vs. SPY

As a Chartered Market Technician with over 15 years of experience, my analysis of the IWM/SPY ratio focuses solely on the provided 14-day technical data to assess the relative performance between the Russell 2000 (IWM) and the S&P 500 (SPY).

The IWM/SPY ratio over the past 14 days indicates a broad, range-bound consolidation, aligning with the “sideways” trend direction and “weak” strength noted in the summary data. The ratio fluctuated between a low of 0.36166, observed at the start of the period on 2025-08-25, and a high of 0.36735 on 2025-09-05. While the period commenced at its lowest point, suggesting initial outperformance by IWM, the ratio has since significantly retraced from its peak. The net change from the beginning to the end of the data window (0.36166 to 0.36254) represents a modest positive movement, underscoring the lack of a decisive directional bias for this ratio within the observed timeframe.

Following the peak on September 5th, the IWM/SPY ratio has experienced a notable decline, suggesting recent underperformance by the Russell 2000 relative to the S&P 500. This downtrend found temporary support around the 0.3625 level on September 10th, which precipitated a brief rebound on September 11th to 0.36471. However, the subsequent session on September 12th saw the ratio retreat again to 0.36254, effectively erasing the previous day’s gains and indicating that the upward momentum was short-lived and met with selling pressure. This price action implies a weakening in IWM’s relative strength against SPY.

Given the recent rejection of higher levels and the return to the approximate 0.3625 support area, it is likely that the IWM/SPY ratio will continue to exhibit a negative bias in the immediate term, pointing to sustained SPY outperformance. The pattern suggests that attempts at relative strength are quickly fading. A retest of the 14-day low of 0.36166 is a roughly even chance if the current support level at 0.3625 fails to hold decisively. Conversely, a sustained break above the 0.36471 level (September 11th high) would make continued IWM underperformance unlikely for the short term, potentially signaling a renewed attempt at relative strength, though this alternative scenario currently lacks sufficient technical confirmation based on the provided data.

Commodities

As a Chartered Market Technician, my analysis of the provided market data focuses strictly on the technical indicators presented.

Daily performance for the selected commodity symbols is broadly positive. SLV (1.77%) and CORN (1.48%) led gains, followed by DBC (0.56%), UGA (0.42%), USO (0.40%), UNG (0.36%), and GLD (0.34%). CPER was the sole decliner, losing 0.16%. The sum of daily changes is a positive 5.17%, indicating an overall higher session for this specific basket. Market breadth is robustly bullish, with seven of eight symbols advancing, suggesting widespread positive sentiment across these symbols, particularly in precious metals and agricultural sectors.

The GLD/SLV 14-day ratio exhibited a general downward trend, declining from roughly 8.847 on August 25th to 8.749 by September 12th. This pattern suggests Silver (SLV) likely outperformed Gold (GLD) over this period, indicating silver’s potential relative strength. Notably, the provided trend object states an “up” direction with a 1.13% increase, which directly contradicts the observed movement in the raw data points. Our confidence in the summary’s stated upward trend is therefore low; the explicit data points imply an erosion of gold’s relative strength versus silver.

Given the strong market breadth and overall positive daily performance across most analyzed commodities, the near-term outlook for this specific group is likely constructive. Silver’s probable outperformance relative to gold, as indicated by the declining GLD/SLV ratio from the raw data points, suggests silver may continue showing stronger momentum. This could be interpreted as a technical signal for relative strength within the precious metals complex. No data was provided for the RATIO:GLD/SLV:30 indicator, thus no longer-term ratio analysis is possible from the information provided.

Bonds

As a Chartered Market Technician, I have analyzed the provided daily percentage change data for several fixed-income exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on 2025-09-12. The following matrix presents the daily percentage changes for SHY, IEI, IEF, TLT, and UTHY, sorted in descending order:

A review of these symbols indicates a clear market breadth trend for the observed period, with all five symbols experiencing declines. This uniform decline means there are zero advancing symbols against five declining symbols, strongly suggesting a broad-based negative sentiment across various durations of these fixed-income assets for the day.

Aggregating the daily movements, the overall change for this group of fixed-income instruments sums to approximately -1.202%. This combined figure decisively indicates an overall lower movement across the analyzed symbols. The magnitude of decline varied, with shorter-duration SHY showing a minimal decrease, while longer-duration instruments like TLT and UTHY registered more significant percentage drops, suggesting that longer-duration assets experienced greater downward pressure relative to their shorter-duration counterparts during this session.

Based solely on this singular day’s technical data, it is likely that downward momentum persisted across the observed fixed-income spectrum. The consistent decline across all instruments suggests a lack of immediate buying interest for these assets. However, given the inherent limitations of a single data point, it is roughly an even chance that this specific trend could either persist into the immediate subsequent session or experience a reversal. Drawing definitive long-term conclusions from this limited dataset would be unwarranted.

Crypto

As a Chartered Market Technician with over 15 years of experience, I’ve analyzed the provided daily percentage change data for IBIT and ETHA. The following matrix summarizes their performance, sorted by descending daily percentage change:

Our analysis of the latest daily percentage change data for IBIT and ETHA reveals a clear upward bias for both assets during the observed period. As per the sorted matrix, ETHA led with a significant daily gain of approximately 5.62%, while IBIT followed with a robust increase of roughly 2.28%. This order indicates that ETHA demonstrated substantially stronger relative performance, with both assets contributing positively to the overall market sentiment for the pair.

ETHA’s notable daily appreciation of 5.62% strongly suggests a prevalent bullish sentiment and significant buying pressure for this asset. While IBIT’s gain of 2.28% also indicates positive momentum, it is likely that investor enthusiasm was more concentrated in ETHA. The divergence in the magnitude of these positive moves could reflect differing market dynamics or specific catalysts impacting each asset, although further data would be required to ascertain specific drivers beyond the presented technical figures.

Summing the daily percentage changes, the combined performance of IBIT and ETHA registers an aggregate gain of approximately 7.90%. It is highly likely that this overall positive movement for these two assets reflects a generally favorable short-term outlook for this specific basket. Given both assets recorded positive changes, the overall market condition for this pair is clearly higher, with no signs of mixed or flat performance based solely on this one-day data. Alternative scenarios involving a mixed or negative performance are deemed unlikely given the unanimous positive close.

Magnificent 7 & Friends

Market Commentary: Daily Performance of Select Technology and Growth Stocks (September 12, 2025)

Today’s analysis of the provided market data for a basket of ten prominent symbols indicates a broadly mixed to slightly negative aggregated performance, with significant dispersion among individual equities. The sum of the daily percentage changes reveals an aggregate decline of approximately 0.55%. Market breadth appears somewhat constructive, with six symbols registering gains against four experiencing declines. This suggests that while a majority of these specific stocks advanced, the magnitude of declines in some instances was sufficient to slightly outweigh the collective gains, leading to a marginally negative overall trend for this particular group.

Examining individual performance, TSLA exhibited a notable advance of over 8%, serving as the primary upward driver for the group. This strong individual showing, alongside positive contributions from MSFT (+1.78%) and AAPL (+1.77%), significantly mitigated the broader drag from other declining constituents. NVDA, META, and AVGO also posted modest gains, contributing to the positive breadth, although their impact on the aggregate was less substantial compared to TSLA’s pronounced move. This pattern suggests that a concentrated buying interest in a few high-impact names is likely responsible for supporting the advancing portion of this specific market segment.

Conversely, a significant portion of the aggregate decline can be attributed to substantial pullbacks in ANET, which fell over 8%, and CRWV, declining by more than 3%. Smaller declines were observed in AMZN and GOOGL. The wide divergence between the top performers and the laggards suggests a lack of uniform conviction across these symbols. While the sheer number of advancers might typically indicate underlying strength, the pronounced declines in specific stocks, particularly ANET and CRWV, introduce a degree of uncertainty regarding a universally bullish sentiment. It is roughly an even chance that this mixed performance could continue in the near term, or that the strength in top performers might begin to wane or broaden out.

S&P 500 Sector Breadth

As a Chartered Market Technician, my analysis of the provided daily sector performance data reveals a specific market environment.

The daily sector performance data indicates an overall declining market posture. The aggregate daily percentage change across the eleven S&P 500 sectors is approximately -1.29%, signaling a net negative movement. Market breadth appears weak; eight sectors declined, while only three advanced. This imbalance, with a significantly higher proportion of declining symbols, suggests that downward pressure was more pervasive than upward momentum. We assess this breadth as likely indicative of a bearish market environment for the observed day.

From a sector-specific view, Utilities (XLU) led the advances, gaining roughly 1.00%. Communication Services (XLC) followed at 0.99%, and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) rose approximately 0.60%. Conversely, Health Care (XLV) was the weakest performer, declining about 1.16%. Materials (XLB) fell roughly 0.71%, and Industrials (XLI) declined approximately 0.58%. The top gainers included both defensive and offensive sectors, while top losers also showed a mix. This suggests a lack of uniform directional strength or weakness across sector types.

Analyzing market rotation, advancing sectors comprised one defensive (XLU) and two offensive (XLC, XLY) components. Declining sectors included five offensive (XLF, XLK, XLE, XLI, XLB) and three defensive (XLRE, XLP, XLV) plays. While the defensive XLU was the top gainer, another defensive sector, XLV, was the largest decliner. The greater number of declining offensive sectors, coupled with the overall negative aggregate change, points to a likely bearish sentiment. Given the mixed performance within defensive sectors, we assess it as unlikely to signal a broad, clear rotation into defensive segments at this time.

2. PPO Market Model As a Chartered Market Technician with over 15 years of experience, I’ve analyzed the provided PPO momentum indicators for SPX over the recent seven-day period. My assessment focuses strictly on the technical data, employing rigorous analysis principles and estimative language suitable for market commentary.

The Short Term PPO (PPO_1_5_DAY) for SPX displayed significant volatility over the past seven days. It experienced an initial sharp decline, followed by a strong rally from 0.150 on September 5th to a peak of 0.816 on September 11th. However, the indicator has recently pulled back to 0.541 by September 12th. This suggests a notable short-term reversal or profit-taking is underway, indicating that continued near-term volatility is likely. The rapid movements highlight a dynamic and unpredictable short-term environment for momentum.

Conversely, both the Medium Term PPO (PPO_13_21_DAY) and Long Term PPO (PPO_21_34_DAY) exhibit robust upward trends. The Medium Term PPO consistently climbed from 0.349 on September 4th to 0.464 by September 12th, indicating building underlying strength. Similarly, the Long Term PPO, after an initial minor dip from 0.717, recovered strongly to 0.752 by September 12th, suggesting enduring bullish momentum. It is probable that these intermediate and long-term positive trends will persist.

The divergence between the Short Term PPO’s recent pullback and the consistent strength in the Medium and Long Term PPOs suggests a short-term consolidation or correction within a broader bullish trend. There is a roughly even chance of continued near-term weakness versus a swift rebound supported by the stronger underlying indicators. The overall technical picture points to underlying strength, with near-term caution advised due to the recent short-term momentum reversal.

Trend Matrix:

3. Equity Breadth

As a Chartered Market Technician, my analysis of the provided data focuses strictly on the specified technical indicators for the S&P 500 (SPX).

Analysis of the SPXA50R:SPX:7day data reveals significant volatility in market breadth during the observed period. The percentage of S&P 500 members trading above their 50-day moving average initially declined from approximately 62.9% on September 4th to roughly 56.3% by September 10th. A sharp rebound to 65.9% was observed on September 11th, before the period concluded at 61.5% on September 12th. We assess it is roughly an even chance that this fluctuation indicates shifting sentiment and uneven participation within the broader market. No data for SPXA200R:7day was provided, precluding its analysis.

In contrast to the fluctuating breadth, the EMA_20_DAY:SPX:7day demonstrates a clear and consistent upward trend throughout the period. The S&P 500’s 20-day exponential moving average steadily advanced from 6429.09 on September 4th to 6478.42 by September 12th. This persistent rise, with each successive data point higher than the preceding one, suggests robust short-term bullish momentum for the index itself. We assess it is highly likely this sustained ascent reflects continued positive price action for the S&P 500.

Connecting these two indicators, the SPX’s short-term bullish trend, as reflected by the EMA_20_DAY, appears to have navigated periods of uneven breadth. While the index maintained upward momentum, the initial contraction in SPXA50R implied narrower market participation. The subsequent breadth expansion on September 11th likely provided renewed support to the upward EMA trend. However, the latest dip in SPXA50R to 61.5% suggests this renewed conviction might be softening. We assess it is likely the EMA_20_DAY’s positive trend will continue, but the recent breadth fluctuations introduce a roughly even chance of increased consolidation rather than an acceleration of upward momentum.

4. SPX Daily

The S&P 500 (SPX) has demonstrated robust upward momentum over the past seven trading days, with its closing price advancing from 6502.08 on September 4th to 6584.29 on September 12th. The latest session hit a new intraday high of 6600.21, with a minor daily pullback suggesting limited immediate selling pressure at elevated levels. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remained in overbought territory, ranging from 61.04 to 67.51, confirming persistent buying interest. Both the 50-day (6363.41) and 200-day (6003.24) Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are distinctly rising, with the price trading well above them, indicating an established and robust bullish trend with strong underlying momentum.

Immediate technical resistance for the SPX is identified at the recent high of 6600.21; a decisive break above this level makes further upside likely. Initial short-term support lies near the September 10th closing price of 6532.04. More significant dynamic support levels are provided by the rising 50-day EMA at 6363.41 and the 200-day EMA at 6003.24. The bullish case remains probable, given the clear uptrend confirmed by the EMA configuration and sustained price action above these critical moving averages. Continued appreciation is likely as long as these key dynamic supports are maintained.

A bearish reversal to significantly lower levels is unlikely without a decisive break below the 50-day EMA (6363). Should this occur, a test of the 200-day EMA (6003) would become more probable, particularly if accompanied by an RSI decline below 50. Conversely, a period of neutral consolidation, where the SPX trades between 6532 and 6600, allowing the overbought RSI to cool, presents a roughly even chance in the immediate term. Technical sentiment is demonstrably bullish, driven by sustained upward momentum and strong buying pressure from the elevated RSI, suggesting market participants currently possess high conviction in further gains.